Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Select Medical Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.</li>
<li>We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.</li>
<li>Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.
We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.
Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.


Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Yesterday’s break below 3425 short-term support in the S&amp;P 500 opens the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200, two important support levels we are watching moving forward. With that said, as long as 3200 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. At the same time, small-caps are providing a risk-on signal with the Russell 2000 (IWM) still holding above $159 short-term support. Leadership from small-caps is something we would expect to see in a broad-based bull market, and if IWM is above $159 it is hard to get too bearish overall.

Yesterday’s break below 3425 short-term support in the S&amp;P 500 opens the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200, two important support levels we are watching moving forward. With that said, as long as 3200 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. At the same time, small-caps are providing a risk-on signal with the Russell 2000 (IWM) still holding above $159 short-term support. Leadership from small-caps is something we would expect to see in a broad-based bull market, and if IWM is above $159 it is hard to get too bearish overall.

Despite the Nasdaq 100 getting quantitatively extended, the weight of the evidence continues to suggest that our bullish outlook remains appropriate. We elaborate below and also highlight some developments we are watching that could alter our outlook. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Health Care: Restaurants, Fast Food, Small-Cap, Casual Dining, and Hospitals.

Despite the Nasdaq 100 getting quantitatively extended, the weight of the evidence continues to suggest that our bullish outlook remains appropriate. We elaborate below and also highlight some developments we are watching that could alter our outlook. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Health Care: Restaurants, Fast Food, Small-Cap, Casual Dining, and Hospitals.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Still Bullish, But Also Extended Near-Term

Despite our concerns regarding the growing performance disparity between the haves (e.g., Technology, FAANG, mega-caps, growth) and the have nots (e.g., Materials, Energy, small-caps, value), the silver lining continues to be that the latter group is not breaking down on an absolute (price) basis. Due to this fact along with several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish. Continue to buy the dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Technology: Hospitals, Pet Health, Software, Enterprise Applications, Large-Cap, and Software, Enterprise Applications, Small-Cap.

Despite our concerns regarding the growing performance disparity between the haves (e.g., Technology, FAANG, mega-caps, growth) and the have nots (e.g., Materials, Energy, small-caps, value), the silver lining continues to be that the latter group is not breaking down on an absolute (price) basis. Due to this fact along with several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish. Continue to buy the dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Technology: Hospitals, Pet Health, Software, Enterprise Applications, Large-Cap, and Software, Enterprise Applications, Small-Cap.

United States

Select Medical Holdings Corporation is an operator of specialty hospitals and outpatient rehabilitation clinics. The Company provides medical rehabilitation services on a contract basis at nursing homes, hospitals, assisted living and senior care centers, schools and work sites.

Select Medical Holdings (SEM US)

Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

Positive developments are popping up, such as bullish reversals of 4-5-month downtrends for Financials $XLF and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges $IAI ....

Vermilion Research

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Below we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Market Sending Mixed Signals

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Health Care, & Services

Vermilion Research

U. S. Equity Strategy: Still Bullish, But Also Extended Near-Term

Despite the Nasdaq 100 getting quantitatively extended, the weight of the evidence continues to suggest that our bullish outlook remains...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buy The Dips

Despite our concerns regarding the growing performance disparity between the haves (e.g., Technology, FAANG, mega-caps, growth) and the have nots...

Vermilion Research