Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Selective Insurance Group reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, highlighting a return on equity (ROE) of 14.4% and an operating ROE of 14.2%—outperforming its 10-year and 5-year averages of 12.1% and 12.5%, respectively.</li><li>The company achieved an 18% growth in book value per share during the year and returned $182 million to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases, signaling a focus on capital deployment that balances shareholder returns with strategic investments for growth and diversification.</li><li>In underwriting performance, Selective recorded a combined ratio of 93.8% in the fourth quarter and 97.2% for the full year, marginally outside its initial 96% to 97% guidance but at the lower end of the revised 97% to 98% range.</li></ul>

Selective Insurance Group reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, highlighting a return on equity (ROE) of 14.4% and an operating ROE of 14.2%—outperforming its 10-year and 5-year averages of 12.1% and 12.5%, respectively.The company achieved an 18% growth in book value per share during the year and returned $182 million to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases, signaling a focus on capital deployment that balances shareholder returns with strategic investments for growth and diversification.In underwriting performance, Selective recorded a combined ratio of 93.8% in the fourth quarter and 97.2% for the full year, marginally outside its initial 96% to 97% guidance but at the lower end of the revised 97% to 98% range.

Selective Insurance Group Is Deploying Capital Aggressively—But How Sustainable Are These Returns?

Credit

<ul><li>Selective Insurance Group's third quarter 2025 earnings presented a mixed bag of results, reflecting strengths in its investment income as well as challenges in its casualty lines.</li><li>The company reported an operating return on equity of 13.2%, an increase in investment income by 18% year-over-year, and strong investment portfolio performance.</li><li>However, the combined ratio for the quarter stood at 98.6%, which exceeds the company's long-term target of 95%.</li></ul>

Selective Insurance Group's third quarter 2025 earnings presented a mixed bag of results, reflecting strengths in its investment income as well as challenges in its casualty lines.The company reported an operating return on equity of 13.2%, an increase in investment income by 18% year-over-year, and strong investment portfolio performance.However, the combined ratio for the quarter stood at 98.6%, which exceeds the company's long-term target of 95%.

Selective Insurance Group: Can an A+ Credit Portfolio and Higher New-Purchase Yields Drive Stronger ROE?

<ul><li>Selective Insurance Group's recent performance reflects a mix of strategic efforts and industry challenges.</li><li>The company's financial results for the second quarter of 2025 highlight several positive and negative factors impacting its overall strategy and operations.</li><li>On the positive side, Selective Insurance Group reported a solid operating return on equity of 10.3% this quarter, buoyed by a robust investment income which grew by 18% compared to the previous year.</li></ul>

Selective Insurance Group's recent performance reflects a mix of strategic efforts and industry challenges.The company's financial results for the second quarter of 2025 highlight several positive and negative factors impacting its overall strategy and operations.On the positive side, Selective Insurance Group reported a solid operating return on equity of 10.3% this quarter, buoyed by a robust investment income which grew by 18% compared to the previous year.

Selective Insurance Group’s Battle With Social Inflation – Can Pricing Adjustments Win the War?

<ul><li>Selective Insurance Group reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, indicating a mixed performance.</li><li>The company achieved a combined ratio of 96.1%, while the after-tax net investment income grew to $96 million.</li><li>Return on equity and operating return on equity stood at 14.4%, reflecting a robust ability to manage capital effectively.</li></ul>

Selective Insurance Group reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, indicating a mixed performance.The company achieved a combined ratio of 96.1%, while the after-tax net investment income grew to $96 million.Return on equity and operating return on equity stood at 14.4%, reflecting a robust ability to manage capital effectively.

Selective Insurance Group: A Tale Of Insurance Lines Expansion & Some Bets Big on AI To Revolutionize Claims & Underwriting!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

United States

Selective Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, offers a broad range of commercial insurance products, alternative risk management products, and managed care and related services.  The Company's customers include small to medium-sized businesses, governmental entities, selected classes of light industry, as well as individuals and families.

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Selective Insurance (SIGI US)

Selective Insurance Group Is Deploying Capital Aggressively—But How Sustainable Are These Returns?

Selective Insurance Group reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, highlighting a return on equity (ROE) of 14.4%...

Baptista Research

Selective Insurance Group: Can an A+ Credit Portfolio and Higher New-Purchase Yields Drive Stronger ROE?

Selective Insurance Group's third quarter 2025 earnings presented a mixed bag of results, reflecting strengths in its investment income as well as...

Baptista Research

Selective Insurance Group: A Tale Of Insurance Lines Expansion & Some Bets Big on AI To Revolutionize Claims & Underwriting!

Selective Insurance Group reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, indicating a mixed performance. The company achieved a combined ratio...

Baptista Research

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Selective Insurance Group Is Deploying Capital Aggressively—But How Sustainable Are These Returns?

Selective Insurance Group reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, highlighting a return on equity (ROE) of 14.4%...

Baptista Research

Selective Insurance Group: Can an A+ Credit Portfolio and Higher New-Purchase Yields Drive Stronger ROE?

Selective Insurance Group's third quarter 2025 earnings presented a mixed bag of results, reflecting strengths in its investment income as well as...

Baptista Research

Selective Insurance Group’s Battle With Social Inflation – Can Pricing Adjustments Win the War?

Selective Insurance Group's recent performance reflects a mix of strategic efforts and industry challenges. The company's financial results for...

Baptista Research

Selective Insurance Group: A Tale Of Insurance Lines Expansion & Some Bets Big on AI To Revolutionize Claims & Underwriting!

Selective Insurance Group reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, indicating a mixed performance. The company achieved a combined ratio...

Baptista Research

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research