Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>20 months ago, Temasek walked away from a deal to buy control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> as the O&amp;M business saw large writedowns and covid stoppage losses.</li>
<li>The story? A possible Keppel O&amp;M and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> merger. SMM was recapped and spun out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1087:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)</a> then recapped again. </li>
<li>Now it's crunch time. Keppel &amp; SMM hope to update investors on a merger plan by end of April. This insight looks at what to look out for.</li>
</ul>


20 months ago, Temasek walked away from a deal to buy control of Keppel Corp (KEP SP) as the O&amp;M business saw large writedowns and covid stoppage losses.
The story? A possible Keppel O&amp;M and Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) merger. SMM was recapped and spun out of Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) then recapped again. 
Now it's crunch time. Keppel &amp; SMM hope to update investors on a merger plan by end of April. This insight looks at what to look out for.


Keppel : Thinking About Keppel/SMM MergeCo and NEW KEPPEL Pro-Forma Opportunities

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:660:1" rel="noopener">Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)</a> aims to spin off Yangzijiang Financial Holdings (YZJFH) through a dividend-in-specie of all the issued YZJFH shares to shareholders on a one-on-one basis.</li>
<li>YZJFH shares will be listed on the SGX-ST by way of an introduction. The EGM to approve the spin-off will be held on 18 April at 4 pm.</li>
<li>This transaction will unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$1.94 per share, which is a 22% upside to the last close price of S$1.59 per share.</li>
</ul>



Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) aims to spin off Yangzijiang Financial Holdings (YZJFH) through a dividend-in-specie of all the issued YZJFH shares to shareholders on a one-on-one basis.
YZJFH shares will be listed on the SGX-ST by way of an introduction. The EGM to approve the spin-off will be held on 18 April at 4 pm.
This transaction will unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$1.94 per share, which is a 22% upside to the last close price of S$1.59 per share.


Yangzijiang: Proposed Spin-Off of YZJFH to Unlock Value

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a 35% price decline in 2021 and 11% performance YTD, we are exploring if SMM is able to capitalize on the high oil price environment.</li>
<li>We will look at its recent financial performance, orderbook, and financial forecast in 2022.</li>
<li>We will also look at how to value the company and the key risk with our valuation.</li>
</ul>


After a 35% price decline in 2021 and 11% performance YTD, we are exploring if SMM is able to capitalize on the high oil price environment.
We will look at its recent financial performance, orderbook, and financial forecast in 2022.
We will also look at how to value the company and the key risk with our valuation.


Sembcorp Marine: Beneficiary of High Oil Price? Not so Fast

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press Holdings, Afterpay, Link Admin, Razer, AusNet, 51job

When the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> Rights Offering which was backstopped by Temasek, traded near to terms, it became quasi-certain that Temasek would have to do an MGO on the back end - the so-called "Compliance Offer."There were advantages to sitting on the bid at S$0.08 and S$0.079, and perhaps even S$0.81/share, to take advantage of that because the skew of possibilities was heavily favored to the upside. Unfortunately, that upside has not materialised, despite stronger oil prices making offshore rigs more attractive and the possibly bad assets less bad. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/174/original/Screenshot+2021-11-02+at+1.24.35+PM.png?1635830735" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239174"></figure></section>In the past four weeks, Sembcorp Marine shares have settled down at S$0.08/share or lower most of the time except for a brief excursion above the line. Last night, just before midnight, Temasek and investment unit Startree Investments Pte. <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/MGO%20Unconditional%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=689132" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that as of 6pm yesterday 1.249bn shares had been tendered. That gets Temasek over 50%.Normally, that would mean extension of the Mandatory Offer under Rule 22.6 of the Singapore Takeovers Code. This time, it does not, because of Rule 22.6 of the Singapore Takeovers Code. Yup. You read that right. The offer closes at 5:30pm 3 November 2021. That's tomorrow.

When the Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) Rights Offering which was backstopped by Temasek, traded near to terms, it became quasi-certain that Temasek would have to do an MGO on the back end - the so-called "Compliance Offer."There were advantages to sitting on the bid at S$0.08 and S$0.079, and perhaps even S$0.81/share, to take advantage of that because the skew of possibilities was heavily favored to the upside. Unfortunately, that upside has not materialised, despite stronger oil prices making offshore rigs more attractive and the possibly bad assets less bad. In the past four weeks, Sembcorp Marine shares have settled down at S$0.08/share or lower most of the time except for a brief excursion above the line. Last night, just before midnight, Temasek and investment unit Startree Investments Pte. announced that as of 6pm yesterday 1.249bn shares had been tendered. That gets Temasek over 50%.Normally, that would mean extension of the Mandatory Offer under Rule 22.6 of the Singapore Takeovers Code. This time, it does not, because of Rule 22.6 of the Singapore Takeovers Code. Yup. You read that right. The offer closes at 5:30pm 3 November 2021. That's tomorrow. 

Sembcorp Marine MGO Goes Unconditional But No Extension. Deadline Is 3 Nov.

Singapore

Seatrium is a Singapore-headquartered engineering firm providing innovative solutions to the global offshore, marine, and energy industries. It specializes in oil & gas newbuilds and conversions, offshore renewables, specialized shipbuilding, and repairs & upgrades. The company was formed in 2023 through the merger of Sembcorp Marine and Keppel Offshore & Marine.

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Seatrium (STM SP)

Keppel : Thinking About Keppel/SMM MergeCo and NEW KEPPEL Pro-Forma Opportunities

Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Marine appear on their way to a deal to merge their O&M businesses. The backdrop is healthier now. And it means a...

Travis Lundy

Yangzijiang: Proposed Spin-Off of YZJFH to Unlock Value

The EGM to approve the spin-off of YZJFH will be held on 18 April at 4 pm. This transaction will unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$1.94 per...

Arun George

Sembcorp Marine: Beneficiary of High Oil Price? Not so Fast

In this rapid response, we examine the business of Sembcorp Marine and are of the view that the high oil price will not translate into a more...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press Holdings, Afterpay, Link Admin, Razer, AusNet, 51job

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sembcorp Marine MGO Goes Unconditional But No Extension. Deadline Is 3 Nov.

Usually when a Singapore MGO is declared UNCONDITIONAL it gets extended. Not this time. There is a carveout in the rules and Temasek warned of it....

Travis Lundy

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