Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>'s 2Q24F outlook is experiencing a slight upward now, possibly indicating a positive QoQ.  </li>
<li>UMC's notable contributors are showing a mixed outlook, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> could be the most influencer.</li>
<li>Attention should be paid to the 3Q24F outlook for any potential changes and a shift from a bearish view could positively impact the outlook, potentially signaling the end of downturn.  </li>
</ul>



United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)'s 2Q24F outlook is experiencing a slight upward now, possibly indicating a positive QoQ.  
UMC's notable contributors are showing a mixed outlook, and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) could be the most influencer.
Attention should be paid to the 3Q24F outlook for any potential changes and a shift from a bearish view could positively impact the outlook, potentially signaling the end of downturn.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Some Rush Orders Coming in and 2Q24F Could Post Positive QoQ.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) / Equity Bottom-Up

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

<ul>
<li>Both SMIC &amp; Hua Hong reported Q423 earnings in line with expectations and both guided Q124 flat to slightly down. SMIC expects FY24 mid single digit growth YoY.</li>
<li>The downturn has exposed inherent weakness in China's Semi Foundry segment relative to peers as exemplified by the significant GM disparity</li>
<li>China's two leading semi foundries have ~80% domestic dependence. Right now, that's a headwind</li>
</ul>


Both SMIC &amp; Hua Hong reported Q423 earnings in line with expectations and both guided Q124 flat to slightly down. SMIC expects FY24 mid single digit growth YoY.
The downturn has exposed inherent weakness in China's Semi Foundry segment relative to peers as exemplified by the significant GM disparity
China's two leading semi foundries have ~80% domestic dependence. Right now, that's a headwind


China Semi Foundry: Fierce Competition & Sluggish Rebound In Year Of The Dragon

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.</li>
<li>Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). </li>
</ul>


A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.
Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>
 What production fabs and capacity? Intel's Arizona 10nm Fab 12, 22, 32, which are mostly depreciated. Intel will provide nearly 30k/m 12" capacity for UMC at the first stage.</li>
<li>
 Who's 12nm node and design rule? UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule for customers to produce WiFi 7, TV controller, and other products.</li>
<li>
Other discussions include: "Who will operate the fabs?", "How to share sales/profits?", "Mass production time?", "Why benefits to Intel?", "Why benefits to UMC?", "Will TSMC get hurt?"</li>
</ul>



 What production fabs and capacity? Intel's Arizona 10nm Fab 12, 22, 32, which are mostly depreciated. Intel will provide nearly 30k/m 12" capacity for UMC at the first stage.

 Who's 12nm node and design rule? UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule for customers to produce WiFi 7, TV controller, and other products.

Other discussions include: "Who will operate the fabs?", "How to share sales/profits?", "Mass production time?", "Why benefits to Intel?", "Why benefits to UMC?", "Will TSMC get hurt?"


Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are Working Together?

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.</li>
<li>Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. </li>
<li>TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.
Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. 
TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. 


What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates as a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

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SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Some Rush Orders Coming in and 2Q24F Could Post Positive QoQ.

UMC's 2Q24F outlook is slightly improving, with Novatek Microelectronics Corp potentially being a key influencer. Keep an eye on the 3Q24F outlook...

Patrick Liao

China Semi Foundry: Fierce Competition & Sluggish Rebound In Year Of The Dragon

SMIC & Hua Hong reported in line Q423 & both guided Q124 flat to slightly down. SMIC calls FY24 growth ~+5% YoY. Fierce competition, GM pressure,...

William Keating

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are Working Together?

Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are working Together? Customers will use UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule to produce WiFi 7, TV...

Andrew Lu

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

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UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Some Rush Orders Coming in and 2Q24F Could Post Positive QoQ.

​UMC's 2Q24F outlook is slightly improving, with Novatek Microelectronics Corp potentially being a key influencer. Keep an eye on the 3Q24F outlook...

Patrick Liao

China Semi Foundry: Fierce Competition & Sluggish Rebound In Year Of The Dragon

SMIC & Hua Hong reported in line Q423 & both guided Q124 flat to slightly down. SMIC calls FY24 growth ~+5% YoY. Fierce competition, GM pressure,...

William Keating

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are Working Together?

Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are working Together? Customers will use UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule to produce WiFi 7, TV...

Andrew Lu

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

UMC's 2Q24F outlook is slightly improving, with Novatek Microelectronics Corp potentially being a key influencer. Keep an eye on the 3Q24F outlook...