Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's Secular Bull Market continues with the index breaking  above its long term resistance levels.  Market breadth is expanding with 87% of stocks trading above their 200  (DMA).</li>
<li>Hong Kong market valuations are well below all other Asian markets.  This year, the materials and healthcare sectors have been the best performers.</li>
<li>Robosense Technology (2498 HK)  reported solid earnings in its LIDAR business with robotics posting surprising growth.  Deutsche Bank and China Renaissance both rate the company a BUY and raise targets.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's Secular Bull Market continues with the index breaking  above its long term resistance levels.  Market breadth is expanding with 87% of stocks trading above their 200  (DMA).
Hong Kong market valuations are well below all other Asian markets.  This year, the materials and healthcare sectors have been the best performers.
Robosense Technology (2498 HK)  reported solid earnings in its LIDAR business with robotics posting surprising growth.  Deutsche Bank and China Renaissance both rate the company a BUY and raise targets.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (September 10)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>SenseTime reported 1H25 results: total revenue increased by 36% YoY to RMB2.36bn, 6% ahead of our estimate, mainly due to the strong revenue growth of Generative AI business; adjusted net loss narrowed by 50% YoY to RMB1.16bn, thanks to the operating leverage and organizational restructuring, which should be largely in line with our estimate (RMB1.63bn) if excluding other gains of RMB641mn related to disposal of subsidiaries.</li><li>Fuelled by the strong demand for AI compute and AI applications, we forecast total revenue to maintain a solid growth of 25% YoY in 2H25E.</li><li>We revise our FY25/26E adjusted net loss forecast to RMB2.29/0.60bn (previous: RMB2.75bn/0.72bn), given the strong operating leverage and opex control. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SenseTime reported 1H25 results: total revenue increased by 36% YoY to RMB2.36bn, 6% ahead of our estimate, mainly due to the strong revenue growth of Generative AI business; adjusted net loss narrowed by 50% YoY to RMB1.16bn, thanks to the operating leverage and organizational restructuring, which should be largely in line with our estimate (RMB1.63bn) if excluding other gains of RMB641mn related to disposal of subsidiaries.Fuelled by the strong demand for AI compute and AI applications, we forecast total revenue to maintain a solid growth of 25% YoY in 2H25E.We revise our FY25/26E adjusted net loss forecast to RMB2.29/0.60bn (previous: RMB2.75bn/0.72bn), given the strong operating leverage and opex control. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SenseTime (20 HK) - 1H25 Review: Strong Gen AI Revenue Momentum with Improving Margin

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index is the main benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in September 2025.</li>
<li>The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 22nd August 2025.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is the main benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in September 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 22nd August 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Unisound AI Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Unisound AI Technology, a founder-led AI solution provider with focus on conversational AI products and speech recognition technologies, completed its IPO in Hong Kong in June.</li>
<li>Beijing based AI company priced an initial public offering at HK$205.00/share, raising ~HK$251M of net proceeds. The stock is up ~248% from its IPO price at Monday’s close.  </li>
<li>Unisound AI’s market cap today is on a par with market cap of SenseTime and 2x bigger than Beijing Fourth Paradigm. All these companies have the similar growth profiles.</li>
</ul>


Unisound AI Technology, a founder-led AI solution provider with focus on conversational AI products and speech recognition technologies, completed its IPO in Hong Kong in June.
Beijing based AI company priced an initial public offering at HK$205.00/share, raising ~HK$251M of net proceeds. The stock is up ~248% from its IPO price at Monday’s close.  
Unisound AI’s market cap today is on a par with market cap of SenseTime and 2x bigger than Beijing Fourth Paradigm. All these companies have the similar growth profiles.


Unisound AI (9678.HK): ~US$6.5B Market Cap, ADTV ~US$6M, Is Secondary Share Sale On The Deck?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will go to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.</li>
<li>There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).</li>
</ul>


There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

China

SenseTime is a leading artificial intelligence software company that researches, develops, and sells AI software platforms. It provides AI technologies across generative AI, traditional AI, and smart auto, enabling digital transformation for enterprises, smart city management, and applications in IoT, Metaverse, smart health, and automotive. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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SenseTime (20 HK)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (September 10)

Hong Kong reached the technical resistance level of 27100 targeted in the insight, and promptly reversed. The interday reversal could be the start...

David Mudd

SenseTime (20 HK) - 1H25 Review: Strong Gen AI Revenue Momentum with Improving Margin

We roll forward our valuation window to FY26E and raise our target price to HK$2.45 based on 12x FY26E EV/sales (previous: HK$1.85 on 10.5x FY25E...

CMB International

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks

The official index change results for the Hang Seng index Sep25 review will be announced publicly on Friday (after market close). This might be a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There could be 3 constituent changes in Sep. A big FAF increase is forecast for Horizon Robotics. Plenty of capping changes. Put together, that...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (September 10)

Hong Kong reached the technical resistance level of 27100 targeted in the insight, and promptly reversed. The interday reversal could be the start...

David Mudd

SenseTime (20 HK) - 1H25 Review: Strong Gen AI Revenue Momentum with Improving Margin

We roll forward our valuation window to FY26E and raise our target price to HK$2.45 based on 12x FY26E EV/sales (previous: HK$1.85 on 10.5x FY25E...

CMB International

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks

The official index change results for the Hang Seng index Sep25 review will be announced publicly on Friday (after market close). This might be a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Unisound AI (9678.HK): ~US$6.5B Market Cap, ADTV ~US$6M, Is Secondary Share Sale On The Deck?

In my another insight about Unisound AI Technology, I discuss post-listing trading dynamics, relative valuation and lock-up expiry

Andrei Zakharov

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There could be 3 constituent changes in Sep. A big FAF increase is forecast for Horizon Robotics. Plenty of capping changes. Put together, that...

Brian Freitas