Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>Based on the current data, I see two low-conviction ADDs and two low-conviction DELs.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in June 2024.
Based on the current data, I see two low-conviction ADDs and two low-conviction DELs.


Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Flow Expectations: Many Reasons to Follow the Developments Closely

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SenseTime Group Inc. shares plummeted nearly 5% Tuesday after U.S.-based short-seller Grizzly Research released a report accusing the Chinese AI software developer of inflating its revenues.</li><li>Grizzly’s report, citing court documents and social media posts, alleged that SenseTime engaged in what it called round-tripping, where it provided funds to customers who in turn used the money to purchase products from SenseTime that might never have been delivered.</li><li>Its Hong Kong-listed stock tumbled as much as 9.7% before closing 4.86% lower to HK$1.37 ($0.18), down 64% from its IPO price of HK$3.85.</li></ul>

SenseTime Group Inc. shares plummeted nearly 5% Tuesday after U.S.-based short-seller Grizzly Research released a report accusing the Chinese AI software developer of inflating its revenues.Grizzly’s report, citing court documents and social media posts, alleged that SenseTime engaged in what it called round-tripping, where it provided funds to customers who in turn used the money to purchase products from SenseTime that might never have been delivered.Its Hong Kong-listed stock tumbled as much as 9.7% before closing 4.86% lower to HK$1.37 ($0.18), down 64% from its IPO price of HK$3.85.

Short-Seller Grizzly Accuses Chinese AI Software Firm SenseTime of Inflating Revenues

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>AI software company SenseTime’s share price dropped more than 50% over the last one week with the expiry of lock-up period as pre-investors of the company took some profits.  </li>
<li>The company was placed in an investment blacklist by the US government prior to the IPO which forced to launch the IPO without investors from the US.</li>
<li>The company also priced the IPO at the bottom of the price range and despite all of this, shares quickly went up to HK$8.20 from IPO price of US$3.85.</li>
</ul>


AI software company SenseTime’s share price dropped more than 50% over the last one week with the expiry of lock-up period as pre-investors of the company took some profits.  
The company was placed in an investment blacklist by the US government prior to the IPO which forced to launch the IPO without investors from the US.
The company also priced the IPO at the bottom of the price range and despite all of this, shares quickly went up to HK$8.20 from IPO price of US$3.85.


SenseTime: Shares Fall with Lock-Up Expiry; Further Downside with More Selling at the Next Expiry

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> currently has a float of 1.4%. That will increase to 46% at the end of June as pre-IPO and cornerstone investor lock-ups end.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index</a> FAF increase and potential inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a> will require passive trackers to buy 700m shares early September.</li>
<li>Economic stimulus in China, outlook for China tech, lock-up expiry, inclusion in Southbound Connect and flows from passive trackers will drive the stock for few months and provide trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) currently has a float of 1.4%. That will increase to 46% at the end of June as pre-IPO and cornerstone investor lock-ups end.
The Hang Seng Tech Index FAF increase and potential inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will require passive trackers to buy 700m shares early September.
Economic stimulus in China, outlook for China tech, lock-up expiry, inclusion in Southbound Connect and flows from passive trackers will drive the stock for few months and provide trading opportunities.


SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Will Bring BIG Passive Flow

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>A week after the State Council issued "Several Opinions" (关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》), the CSRC <a href="http://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc/c100028/c7474875/content.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> Friday five capital market cooperation measures with HK Connect. The goals are to increase cross-border investor flows.</li>
<li>They include: a broader range of ETFs in Connect, including REITs in both directions, include RMB counters in Southbound, improve mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>RMB Dual Counters Southbound-eligible will take time. They have some homework, but it is on the "To Do" list "as soon as possible and smoothly." Watch impact on H/A Pairs.</li>
</ul>


A week after the State Council issued "Several Opinions" (关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》), the CSRC announced Friday five capital market cooperation measures with HK Connect. The goals are to increase cross-border investor flows.
They include: a broader range of ETFs in Connect, including REITs in both directions, include RMB counters in Southbound, improve mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong.
RMB Dual Counters Southbound-eligible will take time. They have some homework, but it is on the "To Do" list "as soon as possible and smoothly." Watch impact on H/A Pairs.


RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming - This Changes AH Relationships

China

SenseTime Group Inc. offers information technology services. The Company develops artificial intelligence software products, computer vision software products, and other products. SenseTime Group provides its services throughout China.

SenseTime Group (20 HK)

Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Flow Expectations: Many Reasons to Follow the Developments Closely

The reference period for HSCEI June 2024 review ended on 31st March 2024 and my expectations for index changes remain unchanged since I published...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Short-Seller Grizzly Accuses Chinese AI Software Firm SenseTime of Inflating Revenues

SenseTime Group Inc. shares plummeted nearly 5% Tuesday after U.S.-based short-seller Grizzly Research released a report accusing the Chinese AI...

Caixin Global

SenseTime: Shares Fall with Lock-Up Expiry; Further Downside with More Selling at the Next Expiry

SenseTime’s share price dropped more than 50% over the last one week with the expiry of lock-up period. Some shareholders have agreed to extend...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Will Bring BIG Passive Flow

SenseTime rallied post listing and has since dropped. Lock-up expiry in June could lead to short-term weakness but that will bring in large passive...

Brian Freitas

RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming - This Changes AH Relationships

The CSRC has in principle approved HK-listed RMB Dual Counter stocks for southbound eligibility. There are wrinkles to iron out but they should be...

Travis Lundy