Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese regional banks sit at the crossroads of many macro variables driving the Japanese stock market</li>
<li>Rate normalisation, rising loan growth and profitability and government/activist led consolidation</li>
<li>We introduce a basket of stocks to benefit from these converging trends</li>
</ul>


Japanese regional banks sit at the crossroads of many macro variables driving the Japanese stock market
Rate normalisation, rising loan growth and profitability and government/activist led consolidation
We introduce a basket of stocks to benefit from these converging trends


Japan Regional Banks - An Uncrowded Rate Trade with a Consolidation Option

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.</li>
<li>Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.</li>
<li>A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.</li>
</ul>


Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.
Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.
A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.


[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

On Friday 1 October 2020, three new regional bank holding companies will be created and listed the same day on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.  The establishment of a regional bank holding company in Japan is not new news, but these three will in future set up entirely non-financial subsidiaries as a means of broadening group revenues and profitability.  This is a notable change in bank thinking.Japanese financial authorities have been keen to encourage regional banks to merge in the belief that a reduction in the number of banks will lead to greater efficiencies and a greater willingness to lend, but this has had very mixed results.  What the financial authorities have so far failed to do has been to encourage the banks to adopt a radically differentiated business model, or seriously address the issue of proper risk asset pricing, or improve operating margins, or enhance shareholder returns.  This may be about to change. The kiki-kan  危機感 or ‘sense of crisis’ that appears to be the necessary catalyst to get Japanese banks to abandon their habitual ‘business as usual’ approach and take decisive action, may be finally emerging among the Japanese regional banking fraternity.It’s about time.

On Friday 1 October 2020, three new regional bank holding companies will be created and listed the same day on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.  The establishment of a regional bank holding company in Japan is not new news, but these three will in future set up entirely non-financial subsidiaries as a means of broadening group revenues and profitability.  This is a notable change in bank thinking.Japanese financial authorities have been keen to encourage regional banks to merge in the belief that a reduction in the number of banks will lead to greater efficiencies and a greater willingness to lend, but this has had very mixed results.  What the financial authorities have so far failed to do has been to encourage the banks to adopt a radically differentiated business model, or seriously address the issue of proper risk asset pricing, or improve operating margins, or enhance shareholder returns.  This may be about to change. The kiki-kan  危機感 or ‘sense of crisis’ that appears to be the necessary catalyst to get Japanese banks to abandon their habitual ‘business as usual’ approach and take decisive action, may be finally emerging among the Japanese regional banking fraternity.It’s about time.

Japanese Regional Banks:  Dancing On Their Own

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We screened for lesser known names (2 or fewer Analysts with coverage) in Japan that rebounded in September. Some of the larger names by mkt-cap that rebounded were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18346" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18346:1">Nipro Corp (8086 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11909" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1">Mitsubishi Logistics Corp (9301 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18567" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18567:1">Nissin Electric Co Ltd (6641 JP)</a>. We identified the rebounds using RSI or Relative Strength Index, which compares gains and losses over a specific period. <h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Mkt-cap is greater than ¥50bn and there are only 2 or fewer Analyst with coverage</li>
<li>Current RSI (1 month)…</li>
</ol>

We screened for lesser known names (2 or fewer Analysts with coverage) in Japan that rebounded in September. Some of the larger names by mkt-cap that rebounded were Nipro Corp (8086 JP), Mitsubishi Logistics Corp (9301 JP) and Nissin Electric Co Ltd (6641 JP). We identified the rebounds using RSI or Relative Strength Index, which compares gains and losses over a specific period. Screen Criteria
Mkt-cap is greater than ¥50bn and there are only 2 or fewer Analyst with coverage
Current RSI (1 month)…


Lesser Known Names that Rebounded in September....

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

<ul><li>Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the lowest level of new offerings in four years.</li><li>Meanwhile, stock buybacks have soared to a record 4.35 trillion yen (USD$41.8 bn)--the most in history presumably to shore up capital efficiency.</li><li>Opponents in principle claim buybacks inhibit growth, and investment and also impede wage growth which in turn, keeps spending sluggish.</li><li>Do Japan's persistent low GDP numbers reflect some of this corporate policy strategies? Does the same phenomenon apply to the US? </li></ul>

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the lowest level of new offerings in four years.Meanwhile, stock buybacks have soared to a record 4.35 trillion yen (USD$41.8 bn)--the most in history presumably to shore up capital efficiency.Opponents in principle claim buybacks inhibit growth, and investment and also impede wage growth which in turn, keeps spending sluggish.Do Japan's persistent low GDP numbers reflect some of this corporate policy strategies? Does the same phenomenon apply to the US? 

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Japan

Senshu Ikeda Holdings, Inc. is a holding company, manages business operations for its subsidiaries. The group company provides general banking, leasing, credit card, loan, and other financial services.

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Senshu Ikeda Holdings (8714 JP)

Japan Regional Banks - An Uncrowded Rate Trade with a Consolidation Option

One of our basket members Aichi Financial 7389.T suspended mid trading up 4% due to the following headline: May 13 (Reuters) - Aichi Financial...

Rikki Malik

[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Japan regional bank consolidation will continue. We may have a new candidate. I'd be long the small target in this case, assuming that value will out.

Travis Lundy

Japanese Regional Banks: Dancing On Their Own

The ‘sense of crisis’ that Japanese banks need to abandon their habitual ‘business as usual’ approach and take decisive action may be finally...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Lesser Known Names that Rebounded in September....

We screened for lesser known names (2 or fewer Analysts with coverage) in Japan that rebounded in September. Some of the larger names by mkt-cap...

Custom Products Group

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the...

Howard J Klein

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