Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.</li>
<li>We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 6 new adds to MidCap, and 16 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 6 new adds to MidCap, and 16 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Key insiders at Seoul City Gas (017390 KS) and Daou Data Corp (032190 KS) sold their shares before the recent crash.</li>
<li>On 28 April, it was reported that Kim Young-Min (Seoul City Gas Chairman) sold 2% of Seoul City Gas on 20 April, resulting in net sales of 45.7 billion won.</li>
<li>These Korean companies are two of the eight stocks related to the CFD derivatives sell-down that have been crashing in the past week. </li>
</ul>


Key insiders at Seoul City Gas (017390 KS) and Daou Data Corp (032190 KS) sold their shares before the recent crash.
On 28 April, it was reported that Kim Young-Min (Seoul City Gas Chairman) sold 2% of Seoul City Gas on 20 April, resulting in net sales of 45.7 billion won.
These Korean companies are two of the eight stocks related to the CFD derivatives sell-down that have been crashing in the past week. 


Insiders At Seoul City Gas and Daou Data Corp Sell Shares Before the Crash

<ul>
<li>The reduction of credit loans by Korea Investment &amp; Securities and Kiwoom Securities in the past week may have accelerated unwinding of positions of 8 stocks related to CFD selling.  </li>
<li>The balance of credit loans for KOSPI increased 12.7% YTD. On the other hand, the balance of credit loans for KOSDAQ increased by 36.1% YTD. </li>
<li>As local securities companies further reduce credit loans and regulators also restrict CFD related leverage, a sound pair trade could be to go long KOSPI 200 and short KOSDAQ 150. </li>
</ul>


The reduction of credit loans by Korea Investment &amp; Securities and Kiwoom Securities in the past week may have accelerated unwinding of positions of 8 stocks related to CFD selling.  
The balance of credit loans for KOSPI increased 12.7% YTD. On the other hand, the balance of credit loans for KOSDAQ increased by 36.1% YTD. 
As local securities companies further reduce credit loans and regulators also restrict CFD related leverage, a sound pair trade could be to go long KOSPI 200 and short KOSDAQ 150. 


Korea Investment & Securities' Suspension of Credit Loans for Stock Purchases - The Trigger Event?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest story in the Korean stock market in the past three days has been the crash in 8 stocks related to CFD derivatives.</li>
<li>As a result of the CFD related margin call selling, the following are the major impact on the 8 related stocks and the overall Korean stock market in our view.</li>
<li>They include a) overshooting on the downside on 8 related names, b) negative impact on the major rechargeable battery names, and c) negative impact on the overall Korean stock market. </li>
</ul>


The biggest story in the Korean stock market in the past three days has been the crash in 8 stocks related to CFD derivatives.
As a result of the CFD related margin call selling, the following are the major impact on the 8 related stocks and the overall Korean stock market in our view.
They include a) overshooting on the downside on 8 related names, b) negative impact on the major rechargeable battery names, and c) negative impact on the overall Korean stock market. 


A Crash in 8 Korean Stocks Related to CFD Derivatives: Margin Call in Korea

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The local ghost hedge fund began to excessively invest in credit, which leveraged 2.5 to 3 times when the eight manipulated stocks started to increase rapidly in price.</li>
<li>Then, the Financial Supervisory Service deemed this excessively-leveraged trading behavior as unusual, and news of an investigation into their activities broke out and triggered them to dump the shares.</li>
<li>The key now is identifying in advance the stocks that will experience similar selling patterns. To do so, we need to prioritize selecting stocks with high-margin balances in recent times.</li>
</ul>


The local ghost hedge fund began to excessively invest in credit, which leveraged 2.5 to 3 times when the eight manipulated stocks started to increase rapidly in price.
Then, the Financial Supervisory Service deemed this excessively-leveraged trading behavior as unusual, and news of an investigation into their activities broke out and triggered them to dump the shares.
The key now is identifying in advance the stocks that will experience similar selling patterns. To do so, we need to prioritize selecting stocks with high-margin balances in recent times.


Matched Order Fraud in Korea: Reason Behind Eight Stocks Hit Massively

South Korea

Seoul City Gas Co., Ltd. supplies imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) for residential heating and cooking, for commercial heating and air conditioning, and for industrial purposes. The Company is also involved in the design and construction of gas supply facilities and the development of gas-related equipment and facilities.

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Seoul City Gas (017390 KS)

KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

We currently forecast 52 changes for the KOSPI Size Indices. While there are few passive assets tracking these indices, they are used by active...

Brian Freitas

Insiders At Seoul City Gas and Daou Data Corp Sell Shares Before the Crash

Key insiders at Seoul City Gas and Daou Data sold their shares before the recent crash.These Korean companies are two of the eight stocks related...

Douglas Kim

Korea Investment & Securities' Suspension of Credit Loans for Stock Purchases - The Trigger Event?

The reduction of credit loans by Korea Investment & Securities and Kiwoom Securities in the past week may have accelerated unwinding of positions...

Douglas Kim

Matched Order Fraud in Korea: Reason Behind Eight Stocks Hit Massively

This post investigates and explains the matched order fraud incident that engulfed Korea's local stock market this week and the potential names...

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

We currently forecast 52 changes for the KOSPI Size Indices. While there are few passive assets tracking these indices, they are used by active...

Brian Freitas

Insiders At Seoul City Gas and Daou Data Corp Sell Shares Before the Crash

Key insiders at Seoul City Gas and Daou Data sold their shares before the recent crash.These Korean companies are two of the eight stocks related...

Douglas Kim

Korea Investment & Securities' Suspension of Credit Loans for Stock Purchases - The Trigger Event?

The reduction of credit loans by Korea Investment & Securities and Kiwoom Securities in the past week may have accelerated unwinding of positions...

Douglas Kim

A Crash in 8 Korean Stocks Related to CFD Derivatives: Margin Call in Korea

The biggest story in the Korean stock market in the past three days has been the crash in 8 stocks related to CFD derivatives. We discuss the major...

Douglas Kim

Matched Order Fraud in Korea: Reason Behind Eight Stocks Hit Massively

This post investigates and explains the matched order fraud incident that engulfed Korea's local stock market this week and the potential names...

Sanghyun Park