New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Three leading corporate travel management companies have downgraded guidance, citing negative impacts of macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the US.</li><li>Serko's direct exposure to the US will increase significantly as GetThere is integrated, while Booking.com for Business generates a substantial portion of its revenue in Europe where demand remains robust.</li><li>Serko continues to look cheap relative to ANZ tech peers, but deteriorating US corporate travel demand exacerbates low confidence in GetThere's revenue trajectory.</li></ul>

Three leading corporate travel management companies have downgraded guidance, citing negative impacts of macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the US.Serko's direct exposure to the US will increase significantly as GetThere is integrated, while Booking.com for Business generates a substantial portion of its revenue in Europe where demand remains robust.Serko continues to look cheap relative to ANZ tech peers, but deteriorating US corporate travel demand exacerbates low confidence in GetThere's revenue trajectory.

Serko - Uncertainty Clips the Wings of Travel Demand

<ul><li>Web visitation data for Booking.com for Business (B4B) suggests that Serko (SKO) is tracking above the top end of its total income guidance of NZ$85m–NZ$92m for FY25.</li><li>We are cautious to overly extrapolate historic trends between visitations and completed room nights (CRN), given: (1) a limited number of data points; and (2) a likely weakening of the relationship between these variables.</li><li>As B4B’s user base matures, we expect users to spend more time managing travel versus booking it. </li></ul>

Web visitation data for Booking.com for Business (B4B) suggests that Serko (SKO) is tracking above the top end of its total income guidance of NZ$85m–NZ$92m for FY25.We are cautious to overly extrapolate historic trends between visitations and completed room nights (CRN), given: (1) a limited number of data points; and (2) a likely weakening of the relationship between these variables.As B4B’s user base matures, we expect users to spend more time managing travel versus booking it. 

<ul><li>Serko (SKO) delivered a high-level strategy update during its 2024 investor day, reinforcing confidence in its ability to drive growth.</li><li>While quantitative details were generally light, we walked away with greater clarity around SKO's cost trajectory, particularly as it integrates GetThere.</li><li>Our other key takeaways were: (1) SKO has assembled a high-calibre team, with strong global experience, (2) the Booking.com for Business (B4B) relationship is progressing well, and (3) the opportunity for SKO as an integrated travel platform is significant. </li></ul>

Serko (SKO) delivered a high-level strategy update during its 2024 investor day, reinforcing confidence in its ability to drive growth.While quantitative details were generally light, we walked away with greater clarity around SKO's cost trajectory, particularly as it integrates GetThere.Our other key takeaways were: (1) SKO has assembled a high-calibre team, with strong global experience, (2) the Booking.com for Business (B4B) relationship is progressing well, and (3) the opportunity for SKO as an integrated travel platform is significant. 

Serko - Investor Day — Scaling Globally with GetThere

Vista Group International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and trading updates.</li><li>VGL was the only large-cap NZ tech stock under coverage to report during the September 2025 quarter.</li><li>Despite earnings downgrades, Vista Group (VGL) is now our preferred large-cap pick.</li></ul>

The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and trading updates.VGL was the only large-cap NZ tech stock under coverage to report during the September 2025 quarter.Despite earnings downgrades, Vista Group (VGL) is now our preferred large-cap pick.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 12—Payments To Take The Stage

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&amp;P NZ IT Index relative to the NZX 50 Index.</li><li>Key stock ratings have been adjusted this quarter, with Gentrack (GTK) being upgraded to OUTPERFORM, while Vista Group (VGL) and Serko (SKO) have been rated NEUTRAL.</li><li>Forsyth Barr's forecasts diverge from consensus in several areas, including higher revenue expectations for GTK, a more optimistic EBITDA margin for VGL, and a conservative view on SKO's EBITDA forecasts.</li></ul>

New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&amp;P NZ IT Index relative to the NZX 50 Index.Key stock ratings have been adjusted this quarter, with Gentrack (GTK) being upgraded to OUTPERFORM, while Vista Group (VGL) and Serko (SKO) have been rated NEUTRAL.Forsyth Barr's forecasts diverge from consensus in several areas, including higher revenue expectations for GTK, a more optimistic EBITDA margin for VGL, and a conservative view on SKO's EBITDA forecasts.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 10—Volatility Reigns

New Zealand

Serko Ltd operates as an online corporate travel booking and expense management company.

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Serko Ltd (SKO NZ)

Serko - Uncertainty Clips the Wings of Travel Demand

Three leading corporate travel management companies have downgraded guidance, citing negative impacts of macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly...

Forsyth Barr

Serko - Checking In on B4B Web Data

Web visitation data for Booking.com for Business (B4B) suggests that Serko (SKO) is tracking above the top end of its total income guidance of...

Forsyth Barr

Serko - Investor Day — Scaling Globally with GetThere

Serko (SKO) delivered a high-level strategy update during its 2024 investor day, reinforcing confidence in its ability to drive growth.

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 12—Payments To Take The Stage

The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 10—Volatility Reigns

New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&P NZ IT Index...

Forsyth Barr

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