New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>NZ's listed technology sector outperformed the broader market by +9% in the December 2024 quarter and +32% during 2024.</li><li>Global technology markets also enjoyed a buoyant 2024, underpinned by investor optimism around the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI).</li><li>Looking ahead, we explore four significant themes poised to define the technology industry in 2025. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

NZ's listed technology sector outperformed the broader market by +9% in the December 2024 quarter and +32% during 2024.Global technology markets also enjoyed a buoyant 2024, underpinned by investor optimism around the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI).Looking ahead, we explore four significant themes poised to define the technology industry in 2025. 

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 9 — Agentic, AGI and Quantum Worlds

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Serko (SKO) reported a solid 1H25 result, with cost control ahead of our expectations.</li><li>We upgrade SKO to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM, reflecting: (1) stronger gross margins and operating leverage, (2) improved confidence in the growth trajectory of Booking.com for Business (B4B), and (3) our incrementally positive view of SKO's US$12m (plus earn-outs) acquisition of Sabre's GetThere online booking tool (OBT).</li><li>While the acquisition adds complexity and execution risk, it gives SKO an improved foothold in the large US managed travel market, and reduces its reliance on the pivotal B4B contract. </li></ul>

Serko (SKO) reported a solid 1H25 result, with cost control ahead of our expectations.We upgrade SKO to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM, reflecting: (1) stronger gross margins and operating leverage, (2) improved confidence in the growth trajectory of Booking.com for Business (B4B), and (3) our incrementally positive view of SKO's US$12m (plus earn-outs) acquisition of Sabre's GetThere online booking tool (OBT).While the acquisition adds complexity and execution risk, it gives SKO an improved foothold in the large US managed travel market, and reduces its reliance on the pivotal B4B contract. 

Serko - 1H25 Getting There Faster with US Acquisition

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>The June 2024 quarter was eventful for New Zealand's listed technology sector, with nine companies reporting results in May.</li><li>Gentrack's (GTK) share price continued its rapid ascent after it reported strong revenue growth in 1H24 and upgraded FY24 guidance.</li><li>Meanwhile, mid-caps Serko (SKO) and EROAD (ERD) reported robust FY24 results that were in line with guidance. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

The June 2024 quarter was eventful for New Zealand's listed technology sector, with nine companies reporting results in May.Gentrack's (GTK) share price continued its rapid ascent after it reported strong revenue growth in 1H24 and upgraded FY24 guidance.Meanwhile, mid-caps Serko (SKO) and EROAD (ERD) reported robust FY24 results that were in line with guidance. 

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest - Edition 7 — Reporting Season Wrap Up

<ul>
<li>Serko's (SKO) FY24 result delivered no major surprises, with key metrics pre-released in April.</li>
<li>The main positive was cost control as SKO held total spend essentially flat in FY24 and below our expectations.</li>
<li>However, outlook statements disappointed. SKO has walked away from its FY25 total income target of &gt;NZ$100m, with its revised FY25 guidance range of NZ$85m–NZ$92m implying downgrades to consensus estimates, albeit in-line with our forecast. </li>
</ul>


Serko's (SKO) FY24 result delivered no major surprises, with key metrics pre-released in April.
The main positive was cost control as SKO held total spend essentially flat in FY24 and below our expectations.
However, outlook statements disappointed. SKO has walked away from its FY25 total income target of &gt;NZ$100m, with its revised FY25 guidance range of NZ$85m–NZ$92m implying downgrades to consensus estimates, albeit in-line with our forecast. 


Serko - Lowering the Flight Course for FY25

<ul><li>We initiate full coverage of Serko Limited (SKO) with an UNDERPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$2.97.</li><li>SKO has successfully renegotiated its crucial agreement with Booking.com for Business (B4B), responsible for ~60% of revenue.</li><li>While the B4B partnership will likely drive strong near-term growth for SKO, consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates appear overly optimistic. </li></ul>

We initiate full coverage of Serko Limited (SKO) with an UNDERPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$2.97.SKO has successfully renegotiated its crucial agreement with Booking.com for Business (B4B), responsible for ~60% of revenue.While the B4B partnership will likely drive strong near-term growth for SKO, consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates appear overly optimistic. 

Serko - Booking the Future of Corporate Travel

New Zealand

Serko Ltd operates as an online corporate travel booking and expense management company.

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Serko Ltd (SKO NZ)

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 9 — Agentic, AGI and Quantum Worlds

Global technology markets also enjoyed a buoyant 2024, underpinned by investor optimism around the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI).

Forsyth Barr

Serko - 1H25 Getting There Faster with US Acquisition

We upgrade SKO to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM, reflecting: (1) stronger gross margins and operating leverage, (2) improved confidence in the growth...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest - Edition 7 — Reporting Season Wrap Up

The June 2024 quarter was eventful for New Zealand's listed technology sector, with nine companies reporting results in May.

Forsyth Barr

Serko - Lowering the Flight Course for FY25

Serko's (SKO) FY24 result delivered no major surprises, with key metrics pre-released in April. The main positive was cost control as SKO held...

Forsyth Barr

Serko - Booking the Future of Corporate Travel

While the B4B partnership will likely drive strong near-term growth for SKO, consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates appear overly optimistic.

Forsyth Barr

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