New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Web visitation data for Booking.com for Business (B4B) suggests that Serko (SKO) is tracking above the top end of its total income guidance of NZ$85m–NZ$92m for FY25.</li><li>We are cautious to overly extrapolate historic trends between visitations and completed room nights (CRN), given: (1) a limited number of data points; and (2) a likely weakening of the relationship between these variables.</li><li>As B4B’s user base matures, we expect users to spend more time managing travel versus booking it. </li></ul>

Web visitation data for Booking.com for Business (B4B) suggests that Serko (SKO) is tracking above the top end of its total income guidance of NZ$85m–NZ$92m for FY25.We are cautious to overly extrapolate historic trends between visitations and completed room nights (CRN), given: (1) a limited number of data points; and (2) a likely weakening of the relationship between these variables.As B4B’s user base matures, we expect users to spend more time managing travel versus booking it. 

<ul><li>Serko (SKO) delivered a high-level strategy update during its 2024 investor day, reinforcing confidence in its ability to drive growth.</li><li>While quantitative details were generally light, we walked away with greater clarity around SKO's cost trajectory, particularly as it integrates GetThere.</li><li>Our other key takeaways were: (1) SKO has assembled a high-calibre team, with strong global experience, (2) the Booking.com for Business (B4B) relationship is progressing well, and (3) the opportunity for SKO as an integrated travel platform is significant. </li></ul>

Serko (SKO) delivered a high-level strategy update during its 2024 investor day, reinforcing confidence in its ability to drive growth.While quantitative details were generally light, we walked away with greater clarity around SKO's cost trajectory, particularly as it integrates GetThere.Our other key takeaways were: (1) SKO has assembled a high-calibre team, with strong global experience, (2) the Booking.com for Business (B4B) relationship is progressing well, and (3) the opportunity for SKO as an integrated travel platform is significant. 

Serko - Investor Day — Scaling Globally with GetThere

<ul><li>Serko (SKO) reported a solid 1H25 result, with cost control ahead of our expectations.</li><li>We upgrade SKO to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM, reflecting: (1) stronger gross margins and operating leverage, (2) improved confidence in the growth trajectory of Booking.com for Business (B4B), and (3) our incrementally positive view of SKO's US$12m (plus earn-outs) acquisition of Sabre's GetThere online booking tool (OBT).</li><li>While the acquisition adds complexity and execution risk, it gives SKO an improved foothold in the large US managed travel market, and reduces its reliance on the pivotal B4B contract. </li></ul>

Serko (SKO) reported a solid 1H25 result, with cost control ahead of our expectations.We upgrade SKO to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM, reflecting: (1) stronger gross margins and operating leverage, (2) improved confidence in the growth trajectory of Booking.com for Business (B4B), and (3) our incrementally positive view of SKO's US$12m (plus earn-outs) acquisition of Sabre's GetThere online booking tool (OBT).While the acquisition adds complexity and execution risk, it gives SKO an improved foothold in the large US managed travel market, and reduces its reliance on the pivotal B4B contract. 

Serko - 1H25 Getting There Faster with US Acquisition

<ul>
<li>Serko's (SKO) FY24 result delivered no major surprises, with key metrics pre-released in April.</li>
<li>The main positive was cost control as SKO held total spend essentially flat in FY24 and below our expectations.</li>
<li>However, outlook statements disappointed. SKO has walked away from its FY25 total income target of &gt;NZ$100m, with its revised FY25 guidance range of NZ$85m–NZ$92m implying downgrades to consensus estimates, albeit in-line with our forecast. </li>
</ul>


Serko's (SKO) FY24 result delivered no major surprises, with key metrics pre-released in April.
The main positive was cost control as SKO held total spend essentially flat in FY24 and below our expectations.
However, outlook statements disappointed. SKO has walked away from its FY25 total income target of &gt;NZ$100m, with its revised FY25 guidance range of NZ$85m–NZ$92m implying downgrades to consensus estimates, albeit in-line with our forecast. 


Serko - Lowering the Flight Course for FY25

<ul><li>We initiate full coverage of Serko Limited (SKO) with an UNDERPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$2.97.</li><li>SKO has successfully renegotiated its crucial agreement with Booking.com for Business (B4B), responsible for ~60% of revenue.</li><li>While the B4B partnership will likely drive strong near-term growth for SKO, consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates appear overly optimistic. </li></ul>

We initiate full coverage of Serko Limited (SKO) with an UNDERPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$2.97.SKO has successfully renegotiated its crucial agreement with Booking.com for Business (B4B), responsible for ~60% of revenue.While the B4B partnership will likely drive strong near-term growth for SKO, consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates appear overly optimistic. 

Serko - Booking the Future of Corporate Travel

New Zealand

Serko Ltd operates as an online corporate travel booking and expense management company.

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Serko Ltd (SKO NZ)

Serko - Checking In on B4B Web Data

Web visitation data for Booking.com for Business (B4B) suggests that Serko (SKO) is tracking above the top end of its total income guidance of...

Forsyth Barr

Serko - Investor Day — Scaling Globally with GetThere

Serko (SKO) delivered a high-level strategy update during its 2024 investor day, reinforcing confidence in its ability to drive growth.

Forsyth Barr

Serko - 1H25 Getting There Faster with US Acquisition

We upgrade SKO to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM, reflecting: (1) stronger gross margins and operating leverage, (2) improved confidence in the growth...

Forsyth Barr

Serko - Lowering the Flight Course for FY25

Serko's (SKO) FY24 result delivered no major surprises, with key metrics pre-released in April. The main positive was cost control as SKO held...

Forsyth Barr

Serko - Booking the Future of Corporate Travel

While the B4B partnership will likely drive strong near-term growth for SKO, consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates appear overly optimistic.

Forsyth Barr

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