TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ServiceNow acquired Era Software this week to extend its presence in the observability and log management space.</li>
<li>The deal is most threatening to DT/ESTC (we advocate as longs) and SPLK (short) because of ServiceNow's ability to bundle functionality for larger deals.</li>
<li>That said...the observability space remains one of the hottest in digital transformations, and the deal is on net, more validating than threatening to DT/ESTC.</li>
</ul>


ServiceNow acquired Era Software this week to extend its presence in the observability and log management space.
The deal is most threatening to DT/ESTC (we advocate as longs) and SPLK (short) because of ServiceNow's ability to bundle functionality for larger deals.
That said...the observability space remains one of the hottest in digital transformations, and the deal is on net, more validating than threatening to DT/ESTC.


Observability: ServiceNow Acquisition Threatens Dynatrace and Elastic

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>ServiceNow has had a particularly good performance throughout 2022 and its recent Q2 results were quite robust.</li><li>In Q2, ITSM participated in 12 of the top 20 deals, with 7 of those sales totaling more than $1 million.</li><li>Nine of the top 20 sales totaled over $1 million, and ITOM was involved in 13 of those deals.</li></ul>

ServiceNow has had a particularly good performance throughout 2022 and its recent Q2 results were quite robust.In Q2, ITSM participated in 12 of the top 20 deals, with 7 of those sales totaling more than $1 million.Nine of the top 20 sales totaled over $1 million, and ITOM was involved in 13 of those deals.

ServiceNow Inc: The Hitch Works Acquisition

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow</li>
</ul>


This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.
The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.
Today we are flagging: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow


Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, ServiceNow

<ul>
<li>Spotify's earnings were not as impressive as they seemed. Revenue beats driven by huge FX tailwinds, while MAU beats are coming from low ARPU regions.</li>
<li>ServiceNow's earnings were not as weak as seemed. Uberbullish CEO Bill McDermott had already guided to elongated sales cycles, but we think reiterated margin targets and 130% NRR matter more. </li>
<li>Inverse results...Spotify jumped without any evidence of progress towards an unbelievable LT operating model, while ServiceNow fell without evidence that its (superb) LT model is in question.</li>
</ul>


Spotify's earnings were not as impressive as they seemed. Revenue beats driven by huge FX tailwinds, while MAU beats are coming from low ARPU regions.
ServiceNow's earnings were not as weak as seemed. Uberbullish CEO Bill McDermott had already guided to elongated sales cycles, but we think reiterated margin targets and 130% NRR matter more. 
Inverse results...Spotify jumped without any evidence of progress towards an unbelievable LT operating model, while ServiceNow fell without evidence that its (superb) LT model is in question.


TMT Earnings Quick Hits: Spotify and ServiceNow

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>ServiceNow delivered strong financial results in the previous financial year.</li><li>ServiceNow has been selected by British Telecom for addressing the needs of its customers of the next generation.</li><li>In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.</li></ul>

ServiceNow delivered strong financial results in the previous financial year.ServiceNow has been selected by British Telecom for addressing the needs of its customers of the next generation.In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

ServiceNow Inc.: Financial & Price Forecasts

United States

ServiceNow, Inc. provides enterprise information technology (IT) management software. The Company designs, develops, and produces prepackaged computer software, cloud services, and IT service management platform. ServiceNow serves customers throughout the United States.

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Servicenow Inc (NOW US)

Observability: ServiceNow Acquisition Threatens Dynatrace and Elastic

The log management observability TAM has shown itself to be largely recession resistant based on the last two quarter's results for DT/DDOG...

Aaron Gabin

ServiceNow Inc: The Hitch Works Acquisition

ServiceNow has had a particularly good performance throughout 2022 and its recent Q2 results were quite robust. In Q2, ITSM participated in 12 of...

Baptista Research

Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, ServiceNow

Breaking Growth stocks combine declining fundamentals with a multiple compression. This week we flag: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, and...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TMT Earnings Quick Hits: Spotify and ServiceNow

A tale of two cities...Spotify jumped without any evidence of progress towards an unbelievable LT operating model, while ServiceNow fell without...

Aaron Gabin

ServiceNow Inc.: Financial & Price Forecasts

ServiceNow delivered strong financial results in the previous financial year. ServiceNow has been selected by British Telecom for addressing the...

Baptista Research

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