Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. </li>
<li>Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.</li>
</ul>


We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. 
Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. 
Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.


Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following select Japanese bank visits, we reiterate our buys on Resona Holdings, Yokohama Financial and Shizuoka Financial</li>
<li>We are neutral on the Japanese digital banks, although Rakuten Bank is our preferred neutral of the three</li>
<li>The Iran conflict creates increased volatility in markets; although the timing may be in question, we believe that the BoJ remains on the “up escalator” for policy rates</li>
</ul>


Following select Japanese bank visits, we reiterate our buys on Resona Holdings, Yokohama Financial and Shizuoka Financial
We are neutral on the Japanese digital banks, although Rakuten Bank is our preferred neutral of the three
The Iran conflict creates increased volatility in markets; although the timing may be in question, we believe that the BoJ remains on the “up escalator” for policy rates


Japanese Banks – Update on Bigger Cap and Digital Banks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> which proposed a takeover to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a <a href="https://corporate.couche-tard.com/2025-07-16-ALIMENTATION-COUCHE-TARD-ANNOUNCES-WITHDRAWAL-OF-PROPOSAL-TO-ACQUIRE-SEVEN-I-HOLDINGS-DUE-TO-LACK-OF-ENGAGEMENT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">letter bomb</a> on the way out.</li>
<li>The letter is titled "ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN &amp; I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT." This is not the first time they have complained.</li>
<li>The letter is not aimed at the 7&amp;i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&amp;i active shareholders and its management team. We'll see.</li>
</ul>



Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
The letter is titled "ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN &amp; I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT." This is not the first time they have complained.
The letter is not aimed at the 7&amp;i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&amp;i active shareholders and its management team. We'll see.


7&I (3382 JP) - Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

<ul>
<li>We believe that the recently announced offer by NTT Docomo for SBI Sumishin Netbank is attractive for Netbank shareholders; this brings the Japanese neobanks into the valuation spotlight</li>
<li>There is a modest long arbitrage opportunity in SBI Sumishin Netbank based on its 30th May closing price, but the bigger opportunity, in our view, is shorting Rakuten Bank</li>
<li>Seven Bank is of potential M&amp;A interest, according to the Japanese financial press; despite the speculative boost to Seven shares and its PBV, Rakuten Bank valuations look relatively very stretched</li>
</ul>


We believe that the recently announced offer by NTT Docomo for SBI Sumishin Netbank is attractive for Netbank shareholders; this brings the Japanese neobanks into the valuation spotlight
There is a modest long arbitrage opportunity in SBI Sumishin Netbank based on its 30th May closing price, but the bigger opportunity, in our view, is shorting Rakuten Bank
Seven Bank is of potential M&amp;A interest, according to the Japanese financial press; despite the speculative boost to Seven shares and its PBV, Rakuten Bank valuations look relatively very stretched


Japanese Neobanks: Time to Short Rakuten Bank (TSE: 5838)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> to rid itself of control of the Ito-Yokado, York Benimaru, Akachan Hompo, and Denny's Japan businesses in York Holdings proceeds apace.</li>
<li>The First Round of bids is due tomorrow, apparently, and all manner of bidders have assembled. </li>
<li>This leads to the question of a deal for the rest of 7&amp;i. If a TradingCo is a natural co-investor for the Ito family (or ACT), so is Berkshire Hathaway.</li>
</ul>


The Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) to rid itself of control of the Ito-Yokado, York Benimaru, Akachan Hompo, and Denny's Japan businesses in York Holdings proceeds apace.
The First Round of bids is due tomorrow, apparently, and all manner of bidders have assembled. 
This leads to the question of a deal for the rest of 7&amp;i. If a TradingCo is a natural co-investor for the Ito family (or ACT), so is Berkshire Hathaway.


7&I (3382 JP) - A York Holdings Deal And Warren Buffett?

Japan

Seven Bank, Ltd. provides banking services mainly through Automated Teller Machine (ATM) across Japan. The bank cooperates with affiliated financial institutions to establish the nationwide ATM network and provide remote banking services, including deposits and loans.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese Banks – Update on Bigger Cap and Digital Banks

Reiterating buys on Resona, Yokohama and Shizuoka post selective bank visits, whilst being neutral on digital banks; amid Iran conflict...

Victor Galliano

7&I (3382 JP) - Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

ATD has decided to walk from its proposal to buy 7&i. On the way out, it put out a long and somewhat detailed but also somewhat fishy letter. 7&i...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Neobanks: Time to Short Rakuten Bank (TSE: 5838)

NTT's offer for SBI Sumishin Netbank leads us to focus on the Japanese neobanks; Rakuten Bank stands out as a short, with scope for long arbitrage...

Victor Galliano

7&I (3382 JP) - A York Holdings Deal And Warren Buffett?

7&i is holding a bidding process for York Holdings. This could be priced and dealt in 3mos (with close next FY). That cleans up the process for...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese Banks – Update on Bigger Cap and Digital Banks

​Reiterating buys on Resona, Yokohama and Shizuoka post selective bank visits, whilst being neutral on digital banks; amid Iran conflict...

Victor Galliano

7&I (3382 JP) - Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

ATD has decided to walk from its proposal to buy 7&i. On the way out, it put out a long and somewhat detailed but also somewhat fishy letter. 7&i...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Neobanks: Time to Short Rakuten Bank (TSE: 5838)

​NTT's offer for SBI Sumishin Netbank leads us to focus on the Japanese neobanks; Rakuten Bank stands out as a short, with scope for long arbitrage...

Victor Galliano

7&I (3382 JP) - A York Holdings Deal And Warren Buffett?

7&i is holding a bidding process for York Holdings. This could be priced and dealt in 3mos (with close next FY). That cleans up the process for...

Travis Lundy

Reiterating buys on Resona, Yokohama and Shizuoka post selective bank visits, whilst being neutral on digital banks; amid Iran conflict...

NTT's offer for SBI Sumishin Netbank leads us to focus on the Japanese neobanks; Rakuten Bank stands out as a short, with scope for long arbitrage...