Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)</a> announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM. </li>
<li>There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.</li>
<li>I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM. 
There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.
I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.


[Japan Event] Seven Bank (8410) To Buy Back Up to 17.0% of Shares Out Tomorrow

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)</a> has been the ugly duckling of Japan e-banks since it got competition in the form of Rakuten Bank (5838) and SBI Sumishin (7163).</li>
<li>Last year, it was posited, and then confirmed, that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> wanted to sell down to de-consolidate. NTT Docomo wanted to buy a bank. </li>
<li>I thought it a good match but no deal has been done. So now we get a different deal - it's weird for Itochu, but bodes well for Seven Bank</li>
</ul>



Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) has been the ugly duckling of Japan e-banks since it got competition in the form of Rakuten Bank (5838) and SBI Sumishin (7163).
Last year, it was posited, and then confirmed, that Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) wanted to sell down to de-consolidate. NTT Docomo wanted to buy a bank. 
I thought it a good match but no deal has been done. So now we get a different deal - it's weird for Itochu, but bodes well for Seven Bank


[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) - Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> which proposed a takeover to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a <a href="https://corporate.couche-tard.com/2025-07-16-ALIMENTATION-COUCHE-TARD-ANNOUNCES-WITHDRAWAL-OF-PROPOSAL-TO-ACQUIRE-SEVEN-I-HOLDINGS-DUE-TO-LACK-OF-ENGAGEMENT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">letter bomb</a> on the way out.</li>
<li>The letter is titled "ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN &amp; I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT." This is not the first time they have complained.</li>
<li>The letter is not aimed at the 7&amp;i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&amp;i active shareholders and its management team. We'll see.</li>
</ul>



Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
The letter is titled "ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN &amp; I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT." This is not the first time they have complained.
The letter is not aimed at the 7&amp;i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&amp;i active shareholders and its management team. We'll see.


7&I (3382 JP) - Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We believe that the recently announced offer by NTT Docomo for SBI Sumishin Netbank is attractive for Netbank shareholders; this brings the Japanese neobanks into the valuation spotlight</li>
<li>There is a modest long arbitrage opportunity in SBI Sumishin Netbank based on its 30th May closing price, but the bigger opportunity, in our view, is shorting Rakuten Bank</li>
<li>Seven Bank is of potential M&amp;A interest, according to the Japanese financial press; despite the speculative boost to Seven shares and its PBV, Rakuten Bank valuations look relatively very stretched</li>
</ul>


We believe that the recently announced offer by NTT Docomo for SBI Sumishin Netbank is attractive for Netbank shareholders; this brings the Japanese neobanks into the valuation spotlight
There is a modest long arbitrage opportunity in SBI Sumishin Netbank based on its 30th May closing price, but the bigger opportunity, in our view, is shorting Rakuten Bank
Seven Bank is of potential M&amp;A interest, according to the Japanese financial press; despite the speculative boost to Seven shares and its PBV, Rakuten Bank valuations look relatively very stretched


Japanese Neobanks: Time to Short Rakuten Bank (TSE: 5838)

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. </li>
<li>Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.</li>
</ul>


We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. 
Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. 
Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.


Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

Japan

Seven Bank, Ltd. provides banking services mainly through Automated Teller Machine (ATM) across Japan. The bank cooperates with affiliated financial institutions to establish the nationwide ATM network and provide remote banking services, including deposits and loans.

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Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)

[Japan Event] Seven Bank (8410) To Buy Back Up to 17.0% of Shares Out Tomorrow

Seven Bank will buy back shares this AM (Friday 20 June) in a ToSTNeT-3 transaction as York Holdings entities sell and 7-Eleven Japan goes below...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) - Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad

Seven & i appears to be en route to selling a stake in Seven Bank to Itochu. I don't see the benefit to Itochu but it's good for Seven Bank,...

Travis Lundy

7&I (3382 JP) - Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

ATD has decided to walk from its proposal to buy 7&i. On the way out, it put out a long and somewhat detailed but also somewhat fishy letter. 7&i...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Neobanks: Time to Short Rakuten Bank (TSE: 5838)

NTT's offer for SBI Sumishin Netbank leads us to focus on the Japanese neobanks; Rakuten Bank stands out as a short, with scope for long arbitrage...

Victor Galliano

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan Event] Seven Bank (8410) To Buy Back Up to 17.0% of Shares Out Tomorrow

Seven Bank will buy back shares this AM (Friday 20 June) in a ToSTNeT-3 transaction as York Holdings entities sell and 7-Eleven Japan goes below...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) - Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad

Seven & i appears to be en route to selling a stake in Seven Bank to Itochu. I don't see the benefit to Itochu but it's good for Seven Bank,...

Travis Lundy

7&I (3382 JP) - Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

ATD has decided to walk from its proposal to buy 7&i. On the way out, it put out a long and somewhat detailed but also somewhat fishy letter. 7&i...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Neobanks: Time to Short Rakuten Bank (TSE: 5838)

​NTT's offer for SBI Sumishin Netbank leads us to focus on the Japanese neobanks; Rakuten Bank stands out as a short, with scope for long arbitrage...

Victor Galliano

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

NTT's offer for SBI Sumishin Netbank leads us to focus on the Japanese neobanks; Rakuten Bank stands out as a short, with scope for long arbitrage...