Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Seven Eleven is turning to apparel to boost same-store sales growth as it falls behind rivals.  </li>
<li>Hello Kitty aside, its hands-off tie-up with And ST looks poorly suited to the very specific type of compact, impulse-driven conbini merchandising needed here.</li>
<li>FamilyMart got it right and how has a ¥20 billion clothing line aiming for ¥100 billion – but even then, FamilyMart is still struggling to keep footfall positive.</li>
</ul>


Seven Eleven is turning to apparel to boost same-store sales growth as it falls behind rivals.  
Hello Kitty aside, its hands-off tie-up with And ST looks poorly suited to the very specific type of compact, impulse-driven conbini merchandising needed here.
FamilyMart got it right and how has a ¥20 billion clothing line aiming for ¥100 billion – but even then, FamilyMart is still struggling to keep footfall positive.


Conbini Clothing Wars: No Riches from Rags for Seven Eleven

<ul>
<li>A year after Couche-Tard withdrew its bid, Seven &amp; I is still searching for new growth, leading to some speculation of closer ties with Familymart. </li>
<li>Over the summer, it pulled out of an attempt to expand in Europe, and watched franchisee profits fall for a second year.</li>
<li>Having sold 6.6% of itself to SoftBank, PayPay and Sumitomo Mitsui Card, it is now hoping to buy a retail media future. It won't be enough.</li>
</ul>


A year after Couche-Tard withdrew its bid, Seven &amp; I is still searching for new growth, leading to some speculation of closer ties with Familymart. 
Over the summer, it pulled out of an attempt to expand in Europe, and watched franchisee profits fall for a second year.
Having sold 6.6% of itself to SoftBank, PayPay and Sumitomo Mitsui Card, it is now hoping to buy a retail media future. It won't be enough.


Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; i bought back ¥400bn of stock on 3 August, then sold ¥300bn of treasury shares to SoftBank, PayPay and SMCC. Net share reduction: 1.9%, not 8.19%.</li>
<li>Q1's +654% overseas profit surge came before Brent moved from $84 to $105. Q2 (Jun-Aug) is the retail fuel-margin compression quarter; guidance risk is to the downside.</li>
<li>
Downgrade BUY to NEUTRAL, fair value cut to ¥2,180 from ¥2,350 — two of three re-rating drivers are impaired, leaving only 8.2% upside into a binary 8 October result release.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; i bought back ¥400bn of stock on 3 August, then sold ¥300bn of treasury shares to SoftBank, PayPay and SMCC. Net share reduction: 1.9%, not 8.19%.
Q1's +654% overseas profit surge came before Brent moved from $84 to $105. Q2 (Jun-Aug) is the retail fuel-margin compression quarter; guidance risk is to the downside.

Downgrade BUY to NEUTRAL, fair value cut to ¥2,180 from ¥2,350 — two of three re-rating drivers are impaired, leaving only 8.2% upside into a binary 8 October result release.


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The Buyback That Wasn't — Downgrading to NEUTRAL Ahead of Q2 FY27

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time


Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Strategically, range trade <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>. Sell large pops, buy large declines. Big picture this big buyback  doesn't change very much at all on a net basis.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-holdings-corporation-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:517:1" rel="noopener">Legend Holdings (3396 HK)</a>(finally) sees a decent move. The positive profit alert issued no doubt nudge things along nicely. </li>
<li>Post sale to Heidelberg, how much, if any, will the market re-rate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maas-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33520:1" rel="noopener">MAAS Group Holdings (MGH AU)</a> as an infrastructure/ "AI-enabler" rather than a contractor currently?</li>
</ul>


Strategically, range trade Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP). Sell large pops, buy large declines. Big picture this big buyback  doesn't change very much at all on a net basis.

Legend Holdings (3396 HK)(finally) sees a decent move. The positive profit alert issued no doubt nudge things along nicely. 
Post sale to Heidelberg, how much, if any, will the market re-rate MAAS Group Holdings (MGH AU) as an infrastructure/ "AI-enabler" rather than a contractor currently?


Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Legend Holdings, MAAS, Lynas Corp

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Conbini Clothing Wars: No Riches from Rags for Seven Eleven

Seven Eleven Japan is playing catch up with its rivals in turning its Japan chain into a variety-conbini format. Its new clothing line is an...

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Seven & I: Where Is the Growth?

Seven & I is showing worrying signs of low morale in recent quarters. It has lost out in a bid for a major base in Poland to ACT and back home,...

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