Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan’s retail and distribution sector has long been seen as fragmented, even to the point of being accused of inefficiency. On the surface, concentration levels do remain low, but scratch that surface and a very different picture emerges.
By format and by category sector, larger companies are taking increasing share and, over the past five years, this trend has accelerated.
Now, given the pressures of Covid, there is ample opportunity for stronger players to gain ground by buying out weaker ones, while some mid-level companies are joining together, hoping to become a fish too big to swallow.
Business tie-ups are also increasing in number, particularly as physical retailers seek to bring in and learn skills necessary to succeed in e-commerce and to build omnichannel models.
The following is a detailed review of how concentration has increased along with a map of who own who in retailing today.
There is a strong possibility that we could see some really big deals, even ones that span format and geographical borders, as many mid-sized retailers recognise that independent survival is getting hard. Acquirers will use the current environment to diversify into new areas, expand volumes and market share, or simply acquire more retail property for long-term development.

Japan’s retail and distribution sector has long been seen as fragmented, even to the point of being accused of inefficiency. On the surface, concentration levels do remain low, but scratch that surface and a very different picture emerges.
By format and by category sector, larger companies are taking increasing share and, over the past five years, this trend has accelerated.
Now, given the pressures of Covid, there is ample opportunity for stronger players to gain ground by buying out weaker ones, while some mid-level companies are joining together, hoping to become a fish too big to swallow.
Business tie-ups are also increasing in number, particularly as physical retailers seek to bring in and learn skills necessary to succeed in e-commerce and to build omnichannel models.
The following is a detailed review of how concentration has increased along with a map of who own who in retailing today.
There is a strong possibility that we could see some really big deals, even ones that span format and geographical borders, as many mid-sized retailers recognise that independent survival is getting hard. Acquirers will use the current environment to diversify into new areas, expand volumes and market share, or simply acquire more retail property for long-term development.

Who Owns Who: Concentration Levels Accelerate in Japan Retail, with More M&A to Come

Department store numbers have dropped by a third in the past 13 years to just 199 and another third are likely to disappear this decadeThe hope that many of these properties would find new life as shopping buildings is now looking far less likely and, with Covid worsening the problem, an accelerated hollowing out of central retail areas looks unavoidable in many small cities.We are likely to see department store numbers drop to around 150 over the next five years.The impact on both the department store sector and regional retailing is profound.

Department store numbers have dropped by a third in the past 13 years to just 199 and another third are likely to disappear this decadeThe hope that many of these properties would find new life as shopping buildings is now looking far less likely and, with Covid worsening the problem, an accelerated hollowing out of central retail areas looks unavoidable in many small cities.We are likely to see department store numbers drop to around 150 over the next five years.The impact on both the department store sector and regional retailing is profound.

Momentum was building for fashion EC well before 2020 but the situation last year brought an overwhelming response from both consumers and merchants. As a result, market share for the online channel has spiralled upwards and, although there will be a correction once shoppers return to stores, the medium-term trajectory is clear.
The big malls continue to dominate – as Zozo’s 21.5% growth in 2020 attests – but retailers and brands are investing much more in their own online stores, creating a level of dynamism and competition not seen in other fashion retail channels.
The following is an in-depth review of the fashion e-commerce market covering:
<ul>
<li>Market Size and market growth</li>
<li>Winners and losers in the last two years</li>
<li>Ranking of the top vendors online by sales</li>
<li>Ranking of fastest growing e-commerce fashion retailers</li>
<li>Strengths and weaknesses in leading firms</li>
<li>Ranking of firms with highest ratio of online sales to offline</li>
<li>Ranking of firms with highest share of direct online sales vs 3rd party malls.</li>
<li>Review of market share of major malls vs direct sales by retailers and the momentum behind each.</li>
</ul>

Momentum was building for fashion EC well before 2020 but the situation last year brought an overwhelming response from both consumers and merchants. As a result, market share for the online channel has spiralled upwards and, although there will be a correction once shoppers return to stores, the medium-term trajectory is clear.
The big malls continue to dominate – as Zozo’s 21.5% growth in 2020 attests – but retailers and brands are investing much more in their own online stores, creating a level of dynamism and competition not seen in other fashion retail channels.
The following is an in-depth review of the fashion e-commerce market covering:

Market Size and market growth
Winners and losers in the last two years
Ranking of the top vendors online by sales
Ranking of fastest growing e-commerce fashion retailers
Strengths and weaknesses in leading firms
Ranking of firms with highest ratio of online sales to offline
Ranking of firms with highest share of direct online sales vs 3rd party malls.
Review of market share of major malls vs direct sales by retailers and the momentum behind each.


Fashion E-Commerce Has Watershed Year in 2020

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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Headline Developments It’s a big edition this week, so settle in! Elon Musk’s Boring Company (private) broke ground this week, shooting Tesla (TSLA) passengers through a high-speed tunnel under Las Vegas.  The loop comprises 2.7km of tunnels, built 30 feet under the Las Vegas Convention Center.

Headline Developments It’s a big edition this week, so settle in! Elon Musk’s Boring Company (private) broke ground this week, shooting Tesla (TSLA) passengers through a high-speed tunnel under Las Vegas.  The loop comprises 2.7km of tunnels, built 30 feet under the Las Vegas Convention Center.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 9th APRIL •<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/934/original/2021-04-11_07-45-16.png?1618170004" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199934"></figure></section>RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon (8267 JP)</a> is still mired in net losses and is underperforming most of its listed subsidiaries. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a> saw its first quarterly year-on-year sales gain since Y19-Q1 and is forecasting (see below) a return to near-double-digit operating margins this year. For more, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio's </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yaskawa-is-sigma-x-going-to-drive-large-margin-gains" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50190" rel="noopener">Yaskawa – Is Sigma-X Going to Drive Large Margin Gains?</a>.  Amongst mid-cap construction machinery companies, the divergence between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeuchi-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15344:1" rel="noopener">Takeuchi Mfg (6432 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giken-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8955:1" rel="noopener">Giken (6289 JP)</a> is notable.     <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/937/original/image_41476225521618176041754.png?1618176043" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199937"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/938/original/image_43430948031618176155426.png?1618176156" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199938"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/939/original/image_15842165641618176543024.png?1618176544" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199939"></figure>• LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 9th APRIL •<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/936/original/2021-04-11_07-45-32.png?1618170242" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199936"></figure></section>FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Just 65% of the annual revisions announced were positive, with Yasukawa the leading large-cap. In contrast to its results, Aeon is expecting to beat its listed grocery chain subsidiaries - all of whom are forecasting declines in profits.

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 9th APRIL •RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Aeon (8267 JP) is still mired in net losses and is underperforming most of its listed subsidiaries. Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) saw its first quarterly year-on-year sales gain since Y19-Q1 and is forecasting (see below) a return to near-double-digit operating margins this year. For more, see Mio's Yaskawa – Is Sigma-X Going to Drive Large Margin Gains?.  Amongst mid-cap construction machinery companies, the divergence between Takeuchi Mfg (6432 JP) and Giken (6289 JP) is notable.     • LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 9th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Just 65% of the annual revisions announced were positive, with Yasukawa the leading large-cap. In contrast to its results, Aeon is expecting to beat its listed grocery chain subsidiaries - all of whom are forecasting declines in profits. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Who Owns Who: Concentration Levels Accelerate in Japan Retail, with More M&A to Come

Japanese retail is in the process of extensive concentration and market consolidation through M&A, organic expansion and tie-ups. Numerous...

Michael Causton

The Japanese Department Store Debacle

The Japanese department sector has been in retreat for a long time but the decline accelerated from the start of Covid. Unfortunately, an end to...

Michael Causton

Fashion E-Commerce Has Watershed Year in 2020

A complete review of the fashion e-commerce market in Japan, including rankings by sales, fastest growing, winners and losers and reviews of the...

Michael Causton

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #35

Headline Developments It’s a big edition this week, so settle in!Elon Musk’s Boring Company (private) broke ground this week,...

Granite Bay Capital

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi

RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Aeon (8267 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Who Owns Who: Concentration Levels Accelerate in Japan Retail, with More M&A to Come

Japanese retail is in the process of extensive concentration and market consolidation through M&A, organic expansion and tie-ups. Numerous...

Michael Causton

The Japanese Department Store Debacle

The Japanese department sector has been in retreat for a long time but the decline accelerated from the start of Covid. Unfortunately, an end to...

Michael Causton

Fashion E-Commerce Has Watershed Year in 2020

A complete review of the fashion e-commerce market in Japan, including rankings by sales, fastest growing, winners and losers and reviews of the...

Michael Causton

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #35

Headline Developments It’s a big edition this week, so settle in!Elon Musk’s Boring Company (private) broke ground this week,...

Granite Bay Capital

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi

RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Aeon (8267 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi