Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ACT's bid for Seven &amp; I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.</li>
<li>Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.</li>
<li>The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.</li>
</ul>


ACT's bid for Seven &amp; I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.


The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> which proposed a takeover to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a <a href="https://corporate.couche-tard.com/2025-07-16-ALIMENTATION-COUCHE-TARD-ANNOUNCES-WITHDRAWAL-OF-PROPOSAL-TO-ACQUIRE-SEVEN-I-HOLDINGS-DUE-TO-LACK-OF-ENGAGEMENT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">letter bomb</a> on the way out.</li>
<li>The letter is titled "ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN &amp; I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT." This is not the first time they have complained.</li>
<li>The letter is not aimed at the 7&amp;i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&amp;i active shareholders and its management team. We'll see.</li>
</ul>



Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
The letter is titled "ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN &amp; I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT." This is not the first time they have complained.
The letter is not aimed at the 7&amp;i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&amp;i active shareholders and its management team. We'll see.


7&I (3382 JP) - Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

<ul>
<li>Recent reports suggest an MBO if firming up, with partial sale of US to ACT and even the Japan CVS business so a big value solution for all concerned.</li>
<li>Not so fast: an ACT purchase of 7-11 US looks more likely to be blocked given yesterday's ruling on the merger of grocery giants Kroger and Albertsons.</li>
<li>The valuation of the Japan business may need a correction too if the last six months of poor numbers continue – given this is because of price perception, they may.</li>
</ul>


Recent reports suggest an MBO if firming up, with partial sale of US to ACT and even the Japan CVS business so a big value solution for all concerned.
Not so fast: an ACT purchase of 7-11 US looks more likely to be blocked given yesterday's ruling on the merger of grocery giants Kroger and Albertsons.
The valuation of the Japan business may need a correction too if the last six months of poor numbers continue – given this is because of price perception, they may.


7&I (3382JP) - Spanners in the Works: FTC Blocks Another US Retail Merger and 7-11 Japan Sales Slump

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> to rid itself of control of the Ito-Yokado, York Benimaru, Akachan Hompo, and Denny's Japan businesses in York Holdings proceeds apace.</li>
<li>The First Round of bids is due tomorrow, apparently, and all manner of bidders have assembled. </li>
<li>This leads to the question of a deal for the rest of 7&amp;i. If a TradingCo is a natural co-investor for the Ito family (or ACT), so is Berkshire Hathaway.</li>
</ul>


The Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) to rid itself of control of the Ito-Yokado, York Benimaru, Akachan Hompo, and Denny's Japan businesses in York Holdings proceeds apace.
The First Round of bids is due tomorrow, apparently, and all manner of bidders have assembled. 
This leads to the question of a deal for the rest of 7&amp;i. If a TradingCo is a natural co-investor for the Ito family (or ACT), so is Berkshire Hathaway.


7&I (3382 JP) - A York Holdings Deal And Warren Buffett?

<ul>
<li>Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.</li>
<li>The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.</li>
<li>There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.
The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.
There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.


7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

ACT's bid for Seven & I withdrawn, company to focus on crucial CVS operation in Japan for long-term growth, potential vast but more bullish if...

Michael Causton

7&I (3382 JP) - Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

ATD has decided to walk from its proposal to buy 7&i. On the way out, it put out a long and somewhat detailed but also somewhat fishy letter. 7&i...

Travis Lundy

7&I (3382JP) - Spanners in the Works: FTC Blocks Another US Retail Merger and 7-11 Japan Sales Slump

Potential MBO of a firm may not be as straightforward as initially thought, with potential hurdles in the form of a blocked ACT purchase and a...

Michael Causton

7&I (3382 JP) - A York Holdings Deal And Warren Buffett?

7&i is holding a bidding process for York Holdings. This could be priced and dealt in 3mos (with close next FY). That cleans up the process for...

Travis Lundy

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

An MBO for Seven & i by the ITO family? Maybe. And the number was big (¥3450/sh), unless it was small (¥2,300/sh), and we don't know which. But it...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

​ACT's bid for Seven & I withdrawn, company to focus on crucial CVS operation in Japan for long-term growth, potential vast but more bullish if...

Michael Causton

7&I (3382 JP) - Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

ATD has decided to walk from its proposal to buy 7&i. On the way out, it put out a long and somewhat detailed but also somewhat fishy letter. 7&i...

Travis Lundy

7&I (3382JP) - Spanners in the Works: FTC Blocks Another US Retail Merger and 7-11 Japan Sales Slump

​Potential MBO of a firm may not be as straightforward as initially thought, with potential hurdles in the form of a blocked ACT purchase and a...

Michael Causton

7&I (3382 JP) - A York Holdings Deal And Warren Buffett?

7&i is holding a bidding process for York Holdings. This could be priced and dealt in 3mos (with close next FY). That cleans up the process for...

Travis Lundy

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

An MBO for Seven & i by the ITO family? Maybe. And the number was big (¥3450/sh), unless it was small (¥2,300/sh), and we don't know which. But it...

Travis Lundy

ACT's bid for Seven & I withdrawn, company to focus on crucial CVS operation in Japan for long-term growth, potential vast but more bullish if...

Potential MBO of a firm may not be as straightforward as initially thought, with potential hurdles in the form of a blocked ACT purchase and a...