China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

<p>As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.</p><p>This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…</p>

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li class="p1">The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.</li><li class="p1">Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.</li><li class="p1">We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.</li><li class="p1">Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.</li><li class="p1">Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).</li></ul><p><em>Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane</em></p>

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<div class="content-highlight"><ul>
<li>Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.</li>
<li>The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.</li>
<li>Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.</li>
<li>Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…</li>
</ul></div>


Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.
The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.
Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.
Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 181 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.1% as of Apr 3rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.7ppt week-on-week, led by energy, financials, health care and offset by industrials, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Great Wall Motor, China Coal Energy, China Minsheng Banking, China Everbright Bank, CHALCO, Crrc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 181 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.1% as of Apr 3rd.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.7ppt week-on-week, led by energy, financials, health care and offset by industrials, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Great Wall Motor, China Coal Energy, China Minsheng Banking, China Everbright Bank, CHALCO, Crrc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 3rd): Great Wall Motor, China Coal Energy, China Minsheng Banking

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 181 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 69.4% as of Mar 27th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, utilities, energy and offset by real estate, communication services, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hans Cnc, Air China, CATL, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Cgn Power, ABC.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 181 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 69.4% as of Mar 27th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, utilities, energy and offset by real estate, communication services, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hans Cnc, Air China, CATL, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Cgn Power, ABC.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 27th): Hans Cnc, Air China, CATL, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Cgn Power

China

Shandong Chenming Paper is a leading Chinese enterprise primarily engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine-made paper and pulp production. Its diverse product portfolio includes various types of printing, packaging, office, industrial, and specialty papers. The company also operates in financial services, hotel management, and the production of electricity, steam, and construction materials. Headquartered in Shouguang, Shandong, China, the company was founded in 1958.

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Shandong Chenming Paper (1812 HK)

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer...

Christopher Balding

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears. Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged...

Morningstar, Inc.

China - Late 2012-Early 2013 Repeat

Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle. 2015 is no...

Mark Artherton

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 3rd): Great Wall Motor, China Coal Energy, China Minsheng Banking

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Great Wall Motor, China Coal Energy, China Minsheng Banking,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 27th): Hans Cnc, Air China, CATL, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Cgn Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Hans Cnc, Air China, CATL, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)