Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/203678/What's%20Up%20(&amp;%20Up)%20With%20Shandong%20Hi-Speed%20(412%20HK)" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What's Up (&amp; Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?</a>, I thought <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK)</a> was a bubble after gaining 190% in the past six months. </li>
<li>My guess was that SDHG's high shareholder concentration was still very much present, and the stock was getting (unjustly) squeezed.</li>
<li>The SFC concurred on the 18th September, and issued a concentration warning. SDHG's shares cratered 76% on the 19th September, before recovering 49%. Quite the ride. </li>
</ul>


In What's Up (&amp; Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?, I thought Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) was a bubble after gaining 190% in the past six months. 
My guess was that SDHG's high shareholder concentration was still very much present, and the stock was getting (unjustly) squeezed.
The SFC concurred on the 18th September, and issued a concentration warning. SDHG's shares cratered 76% on the 19th September, before recovering 49%. Quite the ride. 


Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK): Now Overshot To The Downside

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.</li>
<li>The recommended name last week was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a> as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)</a> is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.</li>
</ul>



Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Back on the 18th Feb 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)</a> (SHS) closed its unconditional Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-new-energy-g" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6927:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy  (1250 HK)</a>. Shortly thereafter, SHS' share price took off.</li>
<li>SHS is now up 190% in the past six months. And ~1800% since Covid.</li>
<li>What gives? It's not index related. And forward earnings do not justify the move. This looks like a bubble. Short interest is on the move.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 18th Feb 2025, Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) (SHS) closed its unconditional Offer for Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy  (1250 HK). Shortly thereafter, SHS' share price took off.
SHS is now up 190% in the past six months. And ~1800% since Covid.
What gives? It's not index related. And forward earnings do not justify the move. This looks like a bubble. Short interest is on the move.


What's Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?

<ul>
<li>For the month of February 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$5bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~55%, with a year-to-date average also of 56%. </li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .</li>
</ul>


For the month of February 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$5bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~55%, with a year-to-date average also of 56%. 
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2025 Wrap: Domain, Proto, Shibaura, Paragon REIT, Mayne Pharma, PointsBet

Hong Kong

Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Group is an investment holding company with segments in industrial investment, standard and non-standard investments, and licensed financial services. It also operates clean energy projects, including photovoltaic and wind power plants. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)