HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 3Q25 results will be testing grounds to justify the multiple expansion, as our coverage saw a 2% downgrade in FY25 earnings since the interim announcement.</li>
<li>Seven stocks will have over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, implying strength in 3Q25 as well. Three stocks, however, will experience earnings decline.</li>
<li>The stronger ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-eastern-airlines-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1" rel="noopener">China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The 3Q25 results will be testing grounds to justify the multiple expansion, as our coverage saw a 2% downgrade in FY25 earnings since the interim announcement.
Seven stocks will have over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, implying strength in 3Q25 as well. Three stocks, however, will experience earnings decline.
The stronger ones are China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>China is rapidly integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics into its industrial sector to cement its position as a global leader in high-tech manufacturing.</li>
<li>With technological prowess, a large, established manufacturing base, and government support, Chinese factories will dominate automated manufacturing globally for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>We look at a basket of Chinese manufacturers who are benefiting from automation with AI and robotics.  All the companies export a substantial portion of their products.</li>
</ul>


China is rapidly integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics into its industrial sector to cement its position as a global leader in high-tech manufacturing.
With technological prowess, a large, established manufacturing base, and government support, Chinese factories will dominate automated manufacturing globally for the foreseeable future.
We look at a basket of Chinese manufacturers who are benefiting from automation with AI and robotics.  All the companies export a substantial portion of their products.


CHINA: Industrial Manufacturing Companies Up Their Game With Robotics!

<ul>
<li>1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. </li>
<li>The Chinese airlines, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment (308 HK)</a> exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. </li>
<li>Container shipping and trade-related companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. 
The Chinese airlines, Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK), and China Travel International Investment (308 HK) exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. 
Container shipping and trade-related companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK), and Orient Overseas International (316 HK) are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.


China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 11.34% in October outperforming its benchmark and HK indexes.  The portfolio's Sharpe ratio increased to 2.91 and the beta and correlation to its benchmark decreased.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio is generating significant alpha (idiosyncratic) returns since launch, with 40% of returns represented by superior stock selection, with the remaining due to sector weighting.</li>
<li>
At the end of August, we bought <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener">Luk Fook</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener"> Holdin</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener">gs</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener"> Intl (590 HK)</a> for the portfolio as retail demand for gold products in mainland China increases.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 11.34% in October outperforming its benchmark and HK indexes.  The portfolio's Sharpe ratio increased to 2.91 and the beta and correlation to its benchmark decreased.
The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio is generating significant alpha (idiosyncratic) returns since launch, with 40% of returns represented by superior stock selection, with the remaining due to sector weighting.

At the end of August, we bought Luk Fook Holdings Intl (590 HK) for the portfolio as retail demand for gold products in mainland China increases.



<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in July.  The portfolio achieved these results while increasing its Sharpe ratio and reducing beta and volatility.</li>
<li>The shift to the healthcare and materials sectors since Liberation Day in April has aided the portfolio's performance.  The consumer staples sector lost momentum, and we exited some positions there.</li>
<li>The HSI now trades above its long-term resistance levels for the first time since 2022.  This signals a good time to rotate back into market leaders in tech.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in July.  The portfolio achieved these results while increasing its Sharpe ratio and reducing beta and volatility.
The shift to the healthcare and materials sectors since Liberation Day in April has aided the portfolio's performance.  The consumer staples sector lost momentum, and we exited some positions there.
The HSI now trades above its long-term resistance levels for the first time since 2022.  This signals a good time to rotate back into market leaders in tech.


China

Shanghai Electric Group is an integrated equipment manufacturing group specializing in industrial equipment, including new energy, environmental protection, and modern services. It designs, manufactures, and sells products such as nuclear power, wind power, thermal generator sets, power transmission and distribution equipment, elevators, and industrial automation systems. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and traces its roots to 1880.

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Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK)

China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CHINA: Industrial Manufacturing Companies Up Their Game With Robotics!

China is rapidly integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics into its industrial sector to cement its position as a global leader in high...

David Mudd

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (August 2025)

Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 11.34% in October outperforming its benchmark and HK indexes. The portfolio's Sharpe ratio increased to 2.91 and...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (July 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in July. The portfolio achieved these results while increasing...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

​3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CHINA: Industrial Manufacturing Companies Up Their Game With Robotics!

China is rapidly integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics into its industrial sector to cement its position as a global leader in high...

David Mudd

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

​1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (August 2025)

Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 11.34% in October outperforming its benchmark and HK indexes. The portfolio's Sharpe ratio increased to 2.91 and...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (July 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in July. The portfolio achieved these results while increasing...

David Mudd

3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...