IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.</li>
<li>The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.</li>
<li>Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.</li>
</ul>



Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.
Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Henlius Biotech / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The rise of innovative drugs in China is actually in line with the interests of large pharmaceutical companies and MNCs. The only ones get “hurt” are small overseas startups/small biotech.</li>
<li>BeiGene's turnaround from losses to profits has entered the countdown.However, investors may not be happy with the net profit margin brought by single revenue driver Brukinsa based on our calculation.</li>
<li>Fosun has increased its stake in Henlius by acquiring additional shares at HK$24.6/share, bringing its total ownership to 63.43%.This sends positive signals. A falling stock price is a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


The rise of innovative drugs in China is actually in line with the interests of large pharmaceutical companies and MNCs. The only ones get “hurt” are small overseas startups/small biotech.
BeiGene's turnaround from losses to profits has entered the countdown.However, investors may not be happy with the net profit margin brought by single revenue driver Brukinsa based on our calculation.
Fosun has increased its stake in Henlius by acquiring additional shares at HK$24.6/share, bringing its total ownership to 63.43%.This sends positive signals. A falling stock price is a buying opportunity.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.27)- Flaws Behind BeiGene's Breakeven, Fosun Increased Stake in Henlius

<ul>
<li>Henlius has made a profit for the second year in a row.However, some investors are not satisfied with the quality of net profit growth in 2024 due to concerns behind.</li>
<li>The implementation of H Share Full Circulation has a positive impact on financing ability, shareholder returns, market valuation of Henlius.The next goal is to be included in HK Stock Connect</li>
<li>Lin Lijun’s continuous increase in Henlius holdings is an important reason for shares surge after privatization failure.Lin may keep pushing up share price so as to exit at higher price.</li>
</ul>


Henlius has made a profit for the second year in a row.However, some investors are not satisfied with the quality of net profit growth in 2024 due to concerns behind.
The implementation of H Share Full Circulation has a positive impact on financing ability, shareholder returns, market valuation of Henlius.The next goal is to be included in HK Stock Connect
Lin Lijun’s continuous increase in Henlius holdings is an important reason for shares surge after privatization failure.Lin may keep pushing up share price so as to exit at higher price.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - Thoughts on 2024 Results And the H Share Full Circulation

<ul>
<li>2024 results appear to be improving, but there’s no large-scale/sustainable new increment with high certainty in revenue end.Fosun Pharma would rely on reducing costs/selling loss-making projects to recover profit/cash flow.</li>
<li>Financial performance in 2025 could be under pressure due to VBP. Fosun Pharm is also mired in a huge guarantee quagmire. International business expansion is facing fierce market competition.</li>
<li>There could be a “valuation discount” for Fosun Pharma due to the concerns on its business model and undervaluation could be a norm. Our recommendation is to invest Henlius directly.</li>
</ul>


2024 results appear to be improving, but there’s no large-scale/sustainable new increment with high certainty in revenue end.Fosun Pharma would rely on reducing costs/selling loss-making projects to recover profit/cash flow.
Financial performance in 2025 could be under pressure due to VBP. Fosun Pharm is also mired in a huge guarantee quagmire. International business expansion is facing fierce market competition.
There could be a “valuation discount” for Fosun Pharma due to the concerns on its business model and undervaluation could be a norm. Our recommendation is to invest Henlius directly.


Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK/600196 CH) - The Concerns Behind 2024 Results and the Outlook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>When <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a></strong> was suspended last month due to the Takeovers Code, I expected PAG to launch an Offer by way of a Merger by Absorption at <strong>~HK$2.00</strong>.</li>
<li>And that is exactly what unfolded. The price, which is a 33.33% premium to last close is final. 42.35% of independent H-shareholders are supportive. A scrip alternative is afforded.</li>
<li>PAG was permitted to take control of Fengxiang, via the domestic shares, late 2022. There will be no regulatory roadblock as PAG now seeks to privatise Fengxiang. </li>
</ul>


When Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) was suspended last month due to the Takeovers Code, I expected PAG to launch an Offer by way of a Merger by Absorption at ~HK$2.00.
And that is exactly what unfolded. The price, which is a 33.33% premium to last close is final. 42.35% of independent H-shareholders are supportive. A scrip alternative is afforded.
PAG was permitted to take control of Fengxiang, via the domestic shares, late 2022. There will be no regulatory roadblock as PAG now seeks to privatise Fengxiang. 


China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech is a global, innovation-driven biopharmaceutical company focused on delivering high-quality, affordable biologic therapies for oncology, autoimmune diseases, and ophthalmic diseases. The company is engaged in biopharmaceutical research and development, manufacturing, and commercialization, offering products such as the biosimilars HANLIKANG (rituximab), HANQUYOU (trastuzumab), HANDAYUAN (adalimumab), and HANBEITAI (bevacizumab), as well as the innovative biologic HANSIZHUANG (serplulimab). Headquartered in Shanghai, China, the company was founded in 2010.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon

The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.27)- Flaws Behind BeiGene's Breakeven, Fosun Increased Stake in Henlius

China's rise in innovative drugs benefits MNCs, while small overseas startups may suffer. Investors cautious of BeiGene's profit margin. Fosun's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK/600196 CH) - The Concerns Behind 2024 Results and the Outlook

Fosun Pharma's financial performance in 2025/2026 could be under pressure due to VBP. There could be “valuation discount” due to the concerns on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG's Pre-Con Offer

This is done. It's just a question of timing on regulatory approvals. Assuming completion, say mid-Sep, I'd pay up to HK$1.88/share.

David Blennerhassett

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Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon

The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.27)- Flaws Behind BeiGene's Breakeven, Fosun Increased Stake in Henlius

​China's rise in innovative drugs benefits MNCs, while small overseas startups may suffer. Investors cautious of BeiGene's profit margin. Fosun's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang