IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.</li>
<li>The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.  </li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) shareholders have voted against Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.
The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.  


Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-cns-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35945:1" rel="noopener">LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS)</a> seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jamco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14741:1" rel="noopener">Jamco Corp (7408 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Jamco Corp (7408 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU). 



Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) - Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>LVC sits a blocking stake ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s shareholder vote on the 22nd Janaury. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>extends the closing date to the 24th January. Shares held plus tendering is currently 86.18%. This is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> was IPOed in September 2023. Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks</li>
</ul>


LVC sits a blocking stake ahead of Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s shareholder vote on the 22nd Janaury. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.

Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)extends the closing date to the 24th January. Shares held plus tendering is currently 86.18%. This is done.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share

<ul>
<li>Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is heading for a deal break. LVC has not changed its shareholding since amassing a blocking stake.</li>
<li>In the absence of a last-ditch effort by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a> to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price. </li>
<li>Based on four methods, the potential deal break price is HK$17.28, 12% below the last close price of HK$19.58.</li>
</ul>


Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is heading for a deal break. LVC has not changed its shareholding since amassing a blocking stake.
In the absence of a last-ditch effort by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price. 
Based on four methods, the potential deal break price is HK$17.28, 12% below the last close price of HK$19.58.


Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.</li>
<li>I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.</li>
<li>Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.


Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) - Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Canvest, Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Haitong/GJTA, Jamco, Macromill, 7&i,...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price

In the absence of a last-ditch effort by Fosun Pharma to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price. I use four methods to...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

LVC’s trading behaviour suggests that it is likely to block the vote. Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing. Both have...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) - Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Canvest, Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Haitong/GJTA, Jamco, Macromill, 7&i,...

Arun George

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price

In the absence of a last-ditch effort by Fosun Pharma to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price. I use four methods to...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

LVC’s trading behaviour suggests that it is likely to block the vote. Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing. Both have...

Arun George