Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Henlius Biotech / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> reported 10% YoY revenue growth in China to RMB1.4B for core innovative product serplulimab. Henlius is now pursuing its globalization initiatives for serplulimab.</li>
<li>Thus far, the drug has been approved in ~50 countries. With its license-out areas comprehensively covering over 100 countries and regions, the international commercialization has further growth potential.</li>
<li>With continuous indication and geography expansion, serplulimab is accelerating toward its next milestone as a domestically developed blockbuster with the potential to exceed RMB10B (~$1.5B) in annual sales before 2030.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) reported 10% YoY revenue growth in China to RMB1.4B for core innovative product serplulimab. Henlius is now pursuing its globalization initiatives for serplulimab.
Thus far, the drug has been approved in ~50 countries. With its license-out areas comprehensively covering over 100 countries and regions, the international commercialization has further growth potential.
With continuous indication and geography expansion, serplulimab is accelerating toward its next milestone as a domestically developed blockbuster with the potential to exceed RMB10B (~$1.5B) in annual sales before 2030.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Serplulimab Is Gaining Traction; Approaching Blockbuster Status

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Valuation based on Cancellation Price hasn’t fully reflected the potential of Weijing Medical Robot business, nor does it reflect the future growth driven by import substitution due to centralized procurement.</li>
<li>The medical device sector is expected to have a strong trend of performance reversal/valuation repair. Kangji's fundamentals/prospects are moving in a positive direction. Reasonable valuation is HK$12-15 billion at least.</li>
<li>The current Cancellation Price of HK$9.25 is too low to normally reflect the Company's true fundamentals and prospects. Therefore, we're worried that there would be some investors opposing this privatization.</li>
</ul>


Valuation based on Cancellation Price hasn’t fully reflected the potential of Weijing Medical Robot business, nor does it reflect the future growth driven by import substitution due to centralized procurement.
The medical device sector is expected to have a strong trend of performance reversal/valuation repair. Kangji's fundamentals/prospects are moving in a positive direction. Reasonable valuation is HK$12-15 billion at least.
The current Cancellation Price of HK$9.25 is too low to normally reflect the Company's true fundamentals and prospects. Therefore, we're worried that there would be some investors opposing this privatization.


Kangji Medical (9997 HK) Privatization - The Cancellation Price Is Not Attractive

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 12th August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-kangji-medical-instrument-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28938:1" rel="noopener">Kangji Medical (9997 HK)</a> announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.</li>
<li>The 9.9% premium to last close was less than ideal. A change of control premium (30%+) is arguably more commonplace in Asia-Pac. However, the Offer Price is a four-year high.</li>
<li>I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today. </li>
</ul>


On the 12th August, Kangji Medical (9997 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
The 9.9% premium to last close was less than ideal. A change of control premium (30%+) is arguably more commonplace in Asia-Pac. However, the Offer Price is a four-year high.
I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today. 


Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a>'s stock price has soared over the last couple of months, and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> has gone from middle/bottom of the pack to best performer among its peer group over the last two months.</li>
<li>There will be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.</li>
</ul>



3SBio Inc (1530 HK)'s stock price has soared over the last couple of months, and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.

3SBio Inc (1530 HK) has gone from middle/bottom of the pack to best performer among its peer group over the last two months.
There will be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.


3SBio (1530 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Stock Soars

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a> and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.</li>
<li>Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.</li>
</ul>


Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.


Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech is a global, innovation-driven biopharmaceutical company focused on delivering high-quality, affordable biologic therapies for oncology, autoimmune diseases, and ophthalmic diseases. The company is engaged in biopharmaceutical research and development, manufacturing, and commercialization, offering products such as the biosimilars HANLIKANG (rituximab), HANQUYOU (trastuzumab), HANDAYUAN (adalimumab), and HANBEITAI (bevacizumab), as well as the innovative biologic HANSIZHUANG (serplulimab). Headquartered in Shanghai, China, the company was founded in 2010.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)