Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;</li>
<li>With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;</li>
<li>The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.</li>
</ul>


Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;
With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;
The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.


What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK)</a> has made a<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0624/2024062401217.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> HK$24.60/share Offer</a> (best &amp; final), in cash, for H-shares not held in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>. A scrip alternative may be afforded. </li>
<li>As Henlius is PRC-incorporated, this Offer is structured as a Merger by Absorption, involving a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. There is no tendering condition.
</li>
<li>Pre-Conditions include NDRC, MoC, and SAFE. The Long Stop date to secure these conditions is 30th April 2025. That's way too conservative. This should be wrapped up around mid 4Q24.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK) has made a HK$24.60/share Offer (best &amp; final), in cash, for H-shares not held in Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK). A scrip alternative may be afforded. 
As Henlius is PRC-incorporated, this Offer is structured as a Merger by Absorption, involving a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. There is no tendering condition.

Pre-Conditions include NDRC, MoC, and SAFE. The Long Stop date to secure these conditions is 30th April 2025. That's way too conservative. This should be wrapped up around mid 4Q24.


Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma's "Fair" Offer

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a> at HK$24.60, a 36.7% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition. </li>
<li>Long term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be supportive partly because of the share alternative option.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) at HK$24.60, a 36.7% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition. 
Long term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be supportive partly because of the share alternative option.


Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Kelun-Biotech: Promising Ph2 results of SKB264+A167 in 1L NSCLC.</li><li>SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189 and 9.7 months mPFS of tislelizumab+chemo in RATIONALE304.</li><li>SKB264’s Ph3 dose of Q2W could deliver even better efficacy, in our view. SKB264+A167 also showed strong potential in PD-L1 negative NSCLC. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kelun-Biotech: Promising Ph2 results of SKB264+A167 in 1L NSCLC.SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189 and 9.7 months mPFS of tislelizumab+chemo in RATIONALE304.SKB264’s Ph3 dose of Q2W could deliver even better efficacy, in our view. SKB264+A167 also showed strong potential in PD-L1 negative NSCLC. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Healthcare - Chinese Biopharma Releasing Promising Data at ASCO

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It is said that Fosun Pharma plans to privatize Henlius. There’re doubts about how to solve the debt problem/cash flow pressure of Fosun Pharma. A third party could be involved.</li>
<li>Shareholders may not be willing to accept an Offer Price that is significantly below IPO price. It’s also possible that shareholders vote against the privatization. So, there are many uncertainties.</li>
<li>Deal talks are still ongoing. It's difficult to see clearly what's happening under the table. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be more like PE/VC firms not traditional pharmaceutical company.</li>
</ul>


It is said that Fosun Pharma plans to privatize Henlius. There’re doubts about how to solve the debt problem/cash flow pressure of Fosun Pharma. A third party could be involved.
Shareholders may not be willing to accept an Offer Price that is significantly below IPO price. It’s also possible that shareholders vote against the privatization. So, there are many uncertainties.
Deal talks are still ongoing. It's difficult to see clearly what's happening under the table. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be more like PE/VC firms not traditional pharmaceutical company.


Fosun Pharma (2196 HK/600196.CH) To Privatize Henlius (2696.HK) - Things Are Not as Good as Expected

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma's "Fair" Offer

I'd be buying Henlius up to around $23.30 or a gross/annualised spread of 5%/15%, assuming early mid-November completion.

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price

Long-term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be...

Arun George

Healthcare - Chinese Biopharma Releasing Promising Data at ASCO

SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189

CMB International

Fosun Pharma (2196 HK/600196.CH) To Privatize Henlius (2696.HK) - Things Are Not as Good as Expected

Fosun Pharma's plan to privatize Henlius faces uncertainty due to cash-flow pressure.Shareholders' interests may suffer since Offer Price may not...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

​Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma's "Fair" Offer

I'd be buying Henlius up to around $23.30 or a gross/annualised spread of 5%/15%, assuming early mid-November completion.

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price

Long-term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be...

Arun George

Healthcare - Chinese Biopharma Releasing Promising Data at ASCO

SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189

CMB International

Fosun Pharma (2196 HK/600196.CH) To Privatize Henlius (2696.HK) - Things Are Not as Good as Expected

​Fosun Pharma's plan to privatize Henlius faces uncertainty due to cash-flow pressure.Shareholders' interests may suffer since Offer Price may not...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Fosun Pharma's plan to privatize Henlius faces uncertainty due to cash-flow pressure.Shareholders' interests may suffer since Offer Price may not...