Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>China (MSCI China, Shanghai Comp., Shenzhen A Share) continues to offer many attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s EM Strategy report. Additionally, Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe with the RS uptrend intact. We highlight several attractive set ups.</p>

China (MSCI China, Shanghai Comp., Shenzhen A Share) continues to offer many attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s EM Strategy report. Additionally, Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe with the RS uptrend intact. We highlight several attractive set ups.

EM Strategy and Chartbook: Remain Overweight EM Vs. EAFE

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management / Event-Driven

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management (1158 HK)

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<p>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-new-century-hotel-management-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27944:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK)</a>'s (ZNCH) shares were <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0119/2021011900019.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> ahead of trading on the 19 January "<em>pursuant to The Codes on Takeovers and Mergers which constitute inside information of the Company</em>", ZNCH has now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0120/2021012000655.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Offer from a vehicle co-owned by Sequoia China and Ocean Link.</p>
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<p>The Offer price is HK$18.15/share, a 23.9% premium to last close, and a 20.8% premium to the average closing price over the previous 30 trading days. The Offer price will not be increased. A concurrent Offer for ZNCH's domestic shares at RMB15.018066/share is also tabled.</p>
<p>ZNCH is incorporated in the PRC, and as such, there are no rights to compulsorily acquire shares or to require an Offeror do so. The only mechanism available to privatise is via a Merger by Absorption, incorporating a Scheme-like vote (≥ 75% for, ≤10% against). Additionally, as this is a "voluntary conditional offer", a tendering condition of 90% is also present.</p>
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<p>ZNCH has 280mn shares out, comprising 70,000,000 H shares (25% of shares out), 159,659,640 domestic shares (57% of shares out), and 50,340,360 unlisted foreign shares (18% of shares out). Sequoia China/Ocean Link currently hold no shares. </p>
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<p>CTrip, a pre-IPO investor, with 14.83mn H shares, has given an irrevocable <em>supporting</em> the Offer, but will NOT tender. On account of a special shareholder arrangement, CTrip is deemed to be an Offeror Concert Party and therefore does not form part of the Independent H Shareholders. </p>
<p>GreenTree, a pre-IPO investor, with 13.87mn H shares has given an irrevocable supporting the Offer and will also tender. GreenTree forms part of the Independent H Shareholders. </p>
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<p>The pre-conditions, which cannot be waived, include approvals from an anti-trust review under the Anti-Monopoly Law of the PRC, and SAMR.</p>
<p>This appears an <em>okay</em> deal. The Pre-Conditional Long Stop date is the 31 May 2021, but these approvals should be completed well before. Merger by Absorption transactions are typically wrapped up in around four months.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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After Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK)'s (ZNCH) shares were suspended ahead of trading on the 19 January "pursuant to The Codes on Takeovers and Mergers which constitute inside information of the Company", ZNCH has now announced a pre-conditional Offer from a vehicle co-owned by Sequoia China and Ocean Link.


The Offer price is HK$18.15/share, a 23.9% premium to last close, and a 20.8% premium to the average closing price over the previous 30 trading days. The Offer price will not be increased. A concurrent Offer for ZNCH's domestic shares at RMB15.018066/share is also tabled.
ZNCH is incorporated in the PRC, and as such, there are no rights to compulsorily acquire shares or to require an Offeror do so. The only mechanism available to privatise is via a Merger by Absorption, incorporating a Scheme-like vote (≥ 75% for, ≤10% against). Additionally, as this is a "voluntary conditional offer", a tendering condition of 90% is also present.


ZNCH has 280mn shares out, comprising 70,000,000 H shares (25% of shares out), 159,659,640 domestic shares (57% of shares out), and 50,340,360 unlisted foreign shares (18% of shares out). Sequoia China/Ocean Link currently hold no shares. 


CTrip, a pre-IPO investor, with 14.83mn H shares, has given an irrevocable supporting the Offer, but will NOT tender. On account of a special shareholder arrangement, CTrip is deemed to be an Offeror Concert Party and therefore does not form part of the Independent H Shareholders. 
GreenTree, a pre-IPO investor, with 13.87mn H shares has given an irrevocable supporting the Offer and will also tender. GreenTree forms part of the Independent H Shareholders. 


The pre-conditions, which cannot be waived, include approvals from an anti-trust review under the Anti-Monopoly Law of the PRC, and SAMR.
This appears an okay deal. The Pre-Conditional Long Stop date is the 31 May 2021, but these approvals should be completed well before. Merger by Absorption transactions are typically wrapped up in around four months.


As always, more below the fold.


Zhejiang New Century (1158 HK): Pre-Conditional Offer

China Machinery Engineering / Event-Driven

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<p>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-machinery-engineering-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10998:1" rel="noopener">China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK)</a>'s (CMEC) shares were <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0108/2021010701436.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> ahead of trading on the 8 January  "<em>pursuant to The Codes on Takeovers and Mergers which constitute inside information of the Company</em>", CMEC has now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0113/2021011300422.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Offer from its controlling shareholder, state-owned Chinese National Machinery Industry Corporation, also known as SINOMACH.</p>
<p>The Offer price is HK$3.70/share, a 45.10% premium to last close, and a 118.93% premium to the average closing price over the previous 30 trading days. The Offer price will not be increased. A concurrent Offer for CMEC's domestic shares at RMB3.082692/share is also tabled.</p>
<p>CMEC has 4,125,700,000 shares out, comprising 908,270,000 H shares and 3,217,430,000 domestic shares.</p>
<p>SINOMACH holds 3.185bn domestic shares directly, and 32.174mn shares indirectly via China United. Together this totals 77.99% of the total voting interest in CNEC. </p>
<p>SINOMACH does not hold any H  shares.</p>
<p>The pre-conditions, which cannot be waived, include approvals from NDRC, MoC, and SAFE.</p>
<p>As CMEC is PRC incorporated, this delisting proposal is by way of a Merger by Absorption, which involves a Scheme-like vote from disinterested shareholders. There is no tendering acceptance condition attached to this delisting.</p>
<p>This appears a relatively clean deal. The Long Stop date is the 13 January 2022, but this should be completed well before. Merger by Absorption transactions are typically wrapped up in around four months.</p>
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<p>More below the fold.</p>
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After China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK)'s (CMEC) shares were suspended ahead of trading on the 8 January  "pursuant to The Codes on Takeovers and Mergers which constitute inside information of the Company", CMEC has now announced a pre-conditional Offer from its controlling shareholder, state-owned Chinese National Machinery Industry Corporation, also known as SINOMACH.
The Offer price is HK$3.70/share, a 45.10% premium to last close, and a 118.93% premium to the average closing price over the previous 30 trading days. The Offer price will not be increased. A concurrent Offer for CMEC's domestic shares at RMB3.082692/share is also tabled.
CMEC has 4,125,700,000 shares out, comprising 908,270,000 H shares and 3,217,430,000 domestic shares.
SINOMACH holds 3.185bn domestic shares directly, and 32.174mn shares indirectly via China United. Together this totals 77.99% of the total voting interest in CNEC. 
SINOMACH does not hold any H  shares.
The pre-conditions, which cannot be waived, include approvals from NDRC, MoC, and SAFE.
As CMEC is PRC incorporated, this delisting proposal is by way of a Merger by Absorption, which involves a Scheme-like vote from disinterested shareholders. There is no tendering acceptance condition attached to this delisting.
This appears a relatively clean deal. The Long Stop date is the 13 January 2022, but this should be completed well before. Merger by Absorption transactions are typically wrapped up in around four months.


More below the fold.


China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent

<p>Shanghai Prime Machinery Company, a manufacturer of turbine blades, bearings, fasteners, has announced a pre-conditional privatisation Offer from its parent, SOE-<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-grp-co-l-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:101:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group Company (601727 CH)</a>.</p>
<p>The cancellation price is HK$1.60/share, a 68.4% premium to last close. The price will <em>not</em> be increased. </p>
<p>Pre-conditions include PRC regulatory approvals - NDRC, MOFCOM, and SAFE.</p>
<p>As Shanghai Prime is PRC incorporated, this delisting proposal is by way of a merger by absorption, which involves a Scheme-like vote from disinterested shareholders. There is no tendering acceptance condition attached to this delisting.</p>
<p>This is a pretty clean deal. Timing is the only unknown. The Long Stop date is the 3 June 2021, but this should be completed well before. The recent privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huadian-fuxin-energy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:59:1" rel="noopener">Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp (816 HK)</a>, also a pre-conditional merger by absorption, was wrapped up in four and a half months.</p>

Shanghai Prime Machinery Company, a manufacturer of turbine blades, bearings, fasteners, has announced a pre-conditional privatisation Offer from its parent, SOE-Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK) / Shanghai Electric Group Company (601727 CH).
The cancellation price is HK$1.60/share, a 68.4% premium to last close. The price will not be increased. 
Pre-conditions include PRC regulatory approvals - NDRC, MOFCOM, and SAFE.
As Shanghai Prime is PRC incorporated, this delisting proposal is by way of a merger by absorption, which involves a Scheme-like vote from disinterested shareholders. There is no tendering acceptance condition attached to this delisting.
This is a pretty clean deal. Timing is the only unknown. The Long Stop date is the 3 June 2021, but this should be completed well before. The recent privatisation of Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp (816 HK), also a pre-conditional merger by absorption, was wrapped up in four and a half months.

Shanghai Prime (2345 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent

China

Shanghai Prime Machinery designs, manufactures, and sells fasteners, bearings, turbine blades, cutting tools, and forging machinery. The company serves various sectors including automotive, energy, railway, and aviation. It is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was founded in 2005.

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Shanghai Prime Machinery (2345 HK)

EM Strategy and Chartbook: Remain Overweight EM Vs. EAFE

China (MSCI China, Shanghai Comp., Shenzhen A Share) continues to offer many attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s EM Strategy report....

Vermilion Research

Zhejiang New Century (1158 HK): Pre-Conditional Offer

Assuming payment late-May, I would expect ZNCH to trade around $17/share, or a 6-7% gross spread, and a ~22% annualised spread. Buy around $17...

David Blennerhassett

China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent

Expect CMEC to trade around $3.45-3.50, or a 6-7% gross spread, and an 18-23% annualised. This is still being done too cheaply, given the large...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai Prime (2345 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent

With the share price of Shanghai Prime generally in a downward trend since 2018, and faced with a challenging business back-drop, parent Shanghai...

David Blennerhassett

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