Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Further weakness in the JPY poses a risk to RMB stability</li>
<li>If major stimulus is unleashed in China, it is likely the RMB will weaken</li>
<li>Continued incremental easing will benefit the economy in the long term but may disapoint equity investors looking for a quick fix despite Chinese data improving</li>
</ul>


Further weakness in the JPY poses a risk to RMB stability
If major stimulus is unleashed in China, it is likely the RMB will weaken
Continued incremental easing will benefit the economy in the long term but may disapoint equity investors looking for a quick fix despite Chinese data improving


Is a Major RMB Depreciation on the Cards?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>China’s private fund sector was put through the ringer in 2023, with a shaky economic recovery and relentless stock market volatility testing portfolio managers’ resolve.</li><li>During the third straight year of rout in the Chinese stock market, private bond funds’ returns outperformed their stock-focused peers.</li><li>Another bright spot was quantitative investment funds.</li></ul>

China’s private fund sector was put through the ringer in 2023, with a shaky economic recovery and relentless stock market volatility testing portfolio managers’ resolve.During the third straight year of rout in the Chinese stock market, private bond funds’ returns outperformed their stock-focused peers.Another bright spot was quantitative investment funds.

China’s Private Quant, Bond Funds Outperform Peers as Stock Market Falters 

<ul>
<li>Headline numbers disappoint investors hoping for a massive stimulus plan</li>
<li>"Around" 5 percent GDP growth should not be considered weak</li>
<li>Messages from the Two Sessions supports a positive outlook on China equity markets</li>
</ul>


Headline numbers disappoint investors hoping for a massive stimulus plan
"Around" 5 percent GDP growth should not be considered weak
Messages from the Two Sessions supports a positive outlook on China equity markets


China Two Sessions Output Gives Cause for Confidence

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s Great Game where we turn our attention to China.</li><li>The Communist Party is annual National People’s Congress where Premier Li Qiang (Xi’s right hand man) delivered a very noteworthy speech on the Central Committee’s financial and political plans.</li><li>Watching a speech from a Chinese politician is a very different beast from watching top US politicians address the masses.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s Great Game where we turn our attention to China.The Communist Party is annual National People’s Congress where Premier Li Qiang (Xi’s right hand man) delivered a very noteworthy speech on the Central Committee’s financial and political plans.Watching a speech from a Chinese politician is a very different beast from watching top US politicians address the masses.

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Is a Major RMB Depreciation on the Cards?

Potential signs of major stimulus excites markets but could weaken the RMB. Continued incremental easing in China may disappoint equity investors...

Rikki Malik

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

China’s Private Quant, Bond Funds Outperform Peers as Stock Market Falters

China’s private fund sector was put through the ringer in 2023, with a shaky economic recovery and relentless stock market volatility testing...

Caixin Global

China Two Sessions Output Gives Cause for Confidence

While Investors may be disappointed by the lack of a major headline stimulus plan, the details offer more hope andvwe still believe China and...

Rikki Malik

3 Take-Aways from Li Qiang’s Speech

Welcome to this week’s Great Game where we turn our attention to China. The Communist Party is annual National People’s Congress where Premier Li...

Steno Research

Is a Major RMB Depreciation on the Cards?

Potential signs of major stimulus excites markets but could weaken the RMB. Continued incremental easing in China may disappoint equity investors...

Rikki Malik

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

China’s Private Quant, Bond Funds Outperform Peers as Stock Market Falters

China’s private fund sector was put through the ringer in 2023, with a shaky economic recovery and relentless stock market volatility testing...

Caixin Global

China Two Sessions Output Gives Cause for Confidence

While ​Investors may be disappointed by the lack of a major headline stimulus plan, the details offer more hope andvwe still believe China and...

Rikki Malik

3 Take-Aways from Li Qiang’s Speech

Welcome to this week’s Great Game where we turn our attention to China. The Communist Party is annual National People’s Congress where Premier Li...

Steno Research

While Investors may be disappointed by the lack of a major headline stimulus plan, the details offer more hope andvwe still believe China and...