Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FAI declined 3.8% in 2025 (the first full-year decline in 30+ years), and is down 1.6% in Jan-Apr'26. Retail sales barely grew 0.2%YoY in Apr'26, and property prices slumped nationwide. </li>
<li>Industrial output grew 6.1%YoY in Q1/2026 and 4.1%YoY in Apr'26, helped by exports growing 14.3%YoY (Jan-Apr'26); but imports grew faster (+23.4%YoY), shrinking the trade surplus. US$654bn net capital flight Apr'25-Mar'26. </li>
<li>Higher oil prices are temporarily countering deflation. Real GDP likely will decelerate to 3.6%YoY growth in Q2/2026, and stay below 4%YoY in H2/2026. Iran resolution would exacerbate China's deflation issues.  </li>
</ul>


FAI declined 3.8% in 2025 (the first full-year decline in 30+ years), and is down 1.6% in Jan-Apr'26. Retail sales barely grew 0.2%YoY in Apr'26, and property prices slumped nationwide. 
Industrial output grew 6.1%YoY in Q1/2026 and 4.1%YoY in Apr'26, helped by exports growing 14.3%YoY (Jan-Apr'26); but imports grew faster (+23.4%YoY), shrinking the trade surplus. US$654bn net capital flight Apr'25-Mar'26. 
Higher oil prices are temporarily countering deflation. Real GDP likely will decelerate to 3.6%YoY growth in Q2/2026, and stay below 4%YoY in H2/2026. Iran resolution would exacerbate China's deflation issues.  


China: Winning Internationally Despite Deepening Domestic Gloom

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Recent Stock market action hints at what is to come</li>
<li>Indications that there is something brewing in the uranium space</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Recent Stock market action hints at what is to come
Indications that there is something brewing in the uranium space


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The time is right to increase exposure to the Hong Kong market</li>
<li>A confluence of factors and catalysts will drive the index higher</li>
<li>We suggest a few names that we believe will benefit.</li>
</ul>


The time is right to increase exposure to the Hong Kong market
A confluence of factors and catalysts will drive the index higher
We suggest a few names that we believe will benefit.


Tactical Trading – Increasing Hong Kong Exposure

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Tensions ratchet up between China and Japan over Taiwan comments</li>
<li>Signs of a turning point in the Chinese macro environment?</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Tensions ratchet up between China and Japan over Taiwan comments
Signs of a turning point in the Chinese macro environment?


Overview #45 - Sanctions, Metals, and Mergers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

China: Winning Internationally Despite Deepening Domestic Gloom

FAI declined 1.6%YoY in Jan-Apr'26, after unprecedented 3.8%YoY decline in 2025. Net capital flight was US$654bn in Apr'25-Mar'26. RGDP growth...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Overview #47 – Are We There Yet?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent market action and the changing leadership in the markets

Rikki Malik

Tactical Trading – Increasing Hong Kong Exposure

Now is an opportune time to increase investments in the Hong Kong market, as various factors are aligning to propel the index upward. We discuss...

Rikki Malik

Overview #45 - Sanctions, Metals, and Mergers

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. All clear ahead for many of our investment themes

Rikki Malik

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

China: Winning Internationally Despite Deepening Domestic Gloom

FAI declined 1.6%YoY in Jan-Apr'26, after unprecedented 3.8%YoY decline in 2025. Net capital flight was US$654bn in Apr'25-Mar'26. RGDP growth...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Overview #47 – Are We There Yet?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent market action and the changing leadership in the markets

Rikki Malik

Tactical Trading – Increasing Hong Kong Exposure

​Now is an opportune time to increase investments in the Hong Kong market, as various factors are aligning to propel the index upward. We discuss...

Rikki Malik

Overview #45 - Sanctions, Metals, and Mergers

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. All clear ahead for many of our investment themes

Rikki Malik

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Now is an opportune time to increase investments in the Hong Kong market, as various factors are aligning to propel the index upward. We discuss...