Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shell’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 10.6% QoQ and 16.9% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 29.9% QoQ and 34.8% YoY.</li>
<li>Despite stronger refining margins, unplanned maintenance is expected to drag down downstream and chemicals earnings, pressuring overall performance.</li>
<li>However, options positioning reflects bullish sentiment, with traders betting on a potential upside surprise despite a downbeat operational update.</li>
</ul>


Shell’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 10.6% QoQ and 16.9% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 29.9% QoQ and 34.8% YoY.
Despite stronger refining margins, unplanned maintenance is expected to drag down downstream and chemicals earnings, pressuring overall performance.
However, options positioning reflects bullish sentiment, with traders betting on a potential upside surprise despite a downbeat operational update.


[Earnings Preview] Shell Falters on Fundamentals, But Options Data Signals Optimism

<ul>
<li>Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.</li>
<li>As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets</li>
<li>Shell aims to save USD 5 - 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 - 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.</li>
</ul>


Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.
As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets
Shell aims to save USD 5 - 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 - 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.


Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

<ul>
<li>Shell's Q4 revenue fell by 15.8% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 49.9%. However, its revenue beat analyst estimates by 8% but missed EPS projections by 10.8%.  </li>
<li>Shell raised its dividend by 4% and announced a USD 3.5 billion share buyback for the current quarter, marking 13 consecutive quarters of at least USD 3 billion in repurchases.</li>
<li>Shell achieved USD 3.1 billion in cost reductions by end-2024, surpassing its USD 2–3 billion target a year ahead of schedule. Net debt fell by 10.9% YoY in Q4.</li>
</ul>


Shell's Q4 revenue fell by 15.8% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 49.9%. However, its revenue beat analyst estimates by 8% but missed EPS projections by 10.8%.  
Shell raised its dividend by 4% and announced a USD 3.5 billion share buyback for the current quarter, marking 13 consecutive quarters of at least USD 3 billion in repurchases.
Shell achieved USD 3.1 billion in cost reductions by end-2024, surpassing its USD 2–3 billion target a year ahead of schedule. Net debt fell by 10.9% YoY in Q4.


[Earnings Review] Shell Rises on Dividend Hike, Strong Shareholder Returns Despite Earnings Miss

<ul>
<li>Shell set to report its Q4 earnings on 30/Jan, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually. For fiscal 2024 also, revenue and EPS are expected to drop.</li>
<li>As of 27/Jan, Shell’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 21.65%, with an IV rank of 61.12% and an IV percentile of 80%.</li>
<li>Shell’s OI by strike for the 31/ Jan expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 60, 66, and 67, while puts dominate at 64 and 65.</li>
</ul>


Shell set to report its Q4 earnings on 30/Jan, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually. For fiscal 2024 also, revenue and EPS are expected to drop.
As of 27/Jan, Shell’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 21.65%, with an IV rank of 61.12% and an IV percentile of 80%.
Shell’s OI by strike for the 31/ Jan expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 60, 66, and 67, while puts dominate at 64 and 65.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s OI PCR Indicates Bullishness Despite Gloomy Q4 Interim Update

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Major Western oil giants posted strong Q3 2025 profits as surging refining margins and trading gains offset volatility and sustained production strength.</li>
<li>Ukrainian strikes and escalating Western sanctions on Russia tightened global product supply, pushing refining margins higher and supporting downstream earnings.</li>
<li>Refining margins are likely to stay elevated as prolonged sanctions, supply disruptions, and seasonal maintenance sustain tightness despite potential demand headwinds.</li>
</ul>


Major Western oil giants posted strong Q3 2025 profits as surging refining margins and trading gains offset volatility and sustained production strength.
Ukrainian strikes and escalating Western sanctions on Russia tightened global product supply, pushing refining margins higher and supporting downstream earnings.
Refining margins are likely to stay elevated as prolonged sanctions, supply disruptions, and seasonal maintenance sustain tightness despite potential demand headwinds.


Big Oil Gained in Q3 as Sanctions and Strikes on Russia Drove Refining Margins Higher

Netherlands

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces and imports fuels, chemicals, and lubricants, as well as operates service station networks. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell (SHEL US)

[Earnings Preview] Shell Falters on Fundamentals, But Options Data Signals Optimism

Shell's Q2 2025 revenue and EPS are projected to drop, but bullish sentiment remains as traders bet on potential upside surprise despite...

Mint Finance

Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

Shell focuses on efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, contrasting with BP's return to hydrocarbons; plans to save billions, cut capex,...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Shell Rises on Dividend Hike, Strong Shareholder Returns Despite Earnings Miss

Shell's Q4 revenue and earnings dropped, but beat revenue estimates. They raised dividend, announced share buyback, exceeded cost reduction...

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s OI PCR Indicates Bullishness Despite Gloomy Q4 Interim Update

Despite Shell's Q4 earnings expected to decline, options market shows bullishness ahead of earnings this week. Calls outweigh puts across most...

Mint Finance

Big Oil Gained in Q3 as Sanctions and Strikes on Russia Drove Refining Margins Higher

Western oil giants saw healthy profits in Q3 due to high refining margins and trading gains, driven by Ukrainian strikes and sanctions on Russia....

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Preview] Shell Falters on Fundamentals, But Options Data Signals Optimism

​Shell's Q2 2025 revenue and EPS are projected to drop, but bullish sentiment remains as traders bet on potential upside surprise despite...

Mint Finance

Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

​Shell focuses on efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, contrasting with BP's return to hydrocarbons; plans to save billions, cut capex,...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Shell Rises on Dividend Hike, Strong Shareholder Returns Despite Earnings Miss

​Shell's Q4 revenue and earnings dropped, but beat revenue estimates. They raised dividend, announced share buyback, exceeded cost reduction...

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s OI PCR Indicates Bullishness Despite Gloomy Q4 Interim Update

Despite ​Shell's Q4 earnings expected to decline, options market shows bullishness ahead of earnings this week. Calls outweigh puts across most...

Mint Finance

Big Oil Gained in Q3 as Sanctions and Strikes on Russia Drove Refining Margins Higher

​Western oil giants saw healthy profits in Q3 due to high refining margins and trading gains, driven by Ukrainian strikes and sanctions on Russia....

Mint Finance

Shell's Q2 2025 revenue and EPS are projected to drop, but bullish sentiment remains as traders bet on potential upside surprise despite...

Shell focuses on efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, contrasting with BP's return to hydrocarbons; plans to save billions, cut capex,...

Shell's Q4 revenue and earnings dropped, but beat revenue estimates. They raised dividend, announced share buyback, exceeded cost reduction...

Despite Shell's Q4 earnings expected to decline, options market shows bullishness ahead of earnings this week. Calls outweigh puts across most...

Western oil giants saw healthy profits in Q3 due to high refining margins and trading gains, driven by Ukrainian strikes and sanctions on Russia....