Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.</li>
<li>As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets</li>
<li>Shell aims to save USD 5 - 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 - 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.</li>
</ul>


Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.
As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets
Shell aims to save USD 5 - 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 - 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.


Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.</li>
<li>Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.</li>
<li>BP's Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.
Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.
BP's Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.


[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

<ul>
<li>Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.</li>
<li>Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.</li>
<li>The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.</li>
</ul>


Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.
Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.
The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.


[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

<ul>
<li>Shell's Q4 revenue fell by 15.8% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 49.9%. However, its revenue beat analyst estimates by 8% but missed EPS projections by 10.8%.  </li>
<li>Shell raised its dividend by 4% and announced a USD 3.5 billion share buyback for the current quarter, marking 13 consecutive quarters of at least USD 3 billion in repurchases.</li>
<li>Shell achieved USD 3.1 billion in cost reductions by end-2024, surpassing its USD 2–3 billion target a year ahead of schedule. Net debt fell by 10.9% YoY in Q4.</li>
</ul>


Shell's Q4 revenue fell by 15.8% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 49.9%. However, its revenue beat analyst estimates by 8% but missed EPS projections by 10.8%.  
Shell raised its dividend by 4% and announced a USD 3.5 billion share buyback for the current quarter, marking 13 consecutive quarters of at least USD 3 billion in repurchases.
Shell achieved USD 3.1 billion in cost reductions by end-2024, surpassing its USD 2–3 billion target a year ahead of schedule. Net debt fell by 10.9% YoY in Q4.


[Earnings Review] Shell Rises on Dividend Hike, Strong Shareholder Returns Despite Earnings Miss

<ul>
<li>Shell set to report its Q4 earnings on 30/Jan, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually. For fiscal 2024 also, revenue and EPS are expected to drop.</li>
<li>As of 27/Jan, Shell’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 21.65%, with an IV rank of 61.12% and an IV percentile of 80%.</li>
<li>Shell’s OI by strike for the 31/ Jan expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 60, 66, and 67, while puts dominate at 64 and 65.</li>
</ul>


Shell set to report its Q4 earnings on 30/Jan, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually. For fiscal 2024 also, revenue and EPS are expected to drop.
As of 27/Jan, Shell’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 21.65%, with an IV rank of 61.12% and an IV percentile of 80%.
Shell’s OI by strike for the 31/ Jan expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 60, 66, and 67, while puts dominate at 64 and 65.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s OI PCR Indicates Bullishness Despite Gloomy Q4 Interim Update

Netherlands

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces and imports fuels, chemicals, and lubricants, as well as operates service station networks. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell (SHEL US)

Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

Shell focuses on efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, contrasting with BP's return to hydrocarbons; plans to save billions, cut capex,...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Shell Rises on Dividend Hike, Strong Shareholder Returns Despite Earnings Miss

Shell's Q4 revenue and earnings dropped, but beat revenue estimates. They raised dividend, announced share buyback, exceeded cost reduction...

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s OI PCR Indicates Bullishness Despite Gloomy Q4 Interim Update

Despite Shell's Q4 earnings expected to decline, options market shows bullishness ahead of earnings this week. Calls outweigh puts across most...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

​Shell focuses on efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, contrasting with BP's return to hydrocarbons; plans to save billions, cut capex,...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

​BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

​Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Shell Rises on Dividend Hike, Strong Shareholder Returns Despite Earnings Miss

​Shell's Q4 revenue and earnings dropped, but beat revenue estimates. They raised dividend, announced share buyback, exceeded cost reduction...

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s OI PCR Indicates Bullishness Despite Gloomy Q4 Interim Update

Despite ​Shell's Q4 earnings expected to decline, options market shows bullishness ahead of earnings this week. Calls outweigh puts across most...

Mint Finance

Shell focuses on efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, contrasting with BP's return to hydrocarbons; plans to save billions, cut capex,...

BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

Shell's Q4 revenue and earnings dropped, but beat revenue estimates. They raised dividend, announced share buyback, exceeded cost reduction...

Despite Shell's Q4 earnings expected to decline, options market shows bullishness ahead of earnings this week. Calls outweigh puts across most...