Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3m barrels (vs. expectations of 1.5m build), gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 37 Bcf for the week ending 21/Mar, in line with analyst expectations. Inventories are 6.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Shell to boost shareholder distributions to 40-50% of CFFO and cut costs by USD 5-7 billion by 2028. Exxon plans 250 layoffs in the UK by 2026.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3m barrels (vs. expectations of 1.5m build), gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell less than expected.
US natural gas inventories rose by 37 Bcf for the week ending 21/Mar, in line with analyst expectations. Inventories are 6.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Shell to boost shareholder distributions to 40-50% of CFFO and cut costs by USD 5-7 billion by 2028. Exxon plans 250 layoffs in the UK by 2026.


[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 14/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.7m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.8m build), gasoline stockpiles fell below expectations, and distillate inventories declined more than anticipated.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 9 Bcf for the week ending 14/Mar, more than analyst expectations of a 3 Bcf build. Inventories are 10% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Barclays cut Exxon's price target to USD 135 from USD 137 with an Overweight rating, while Citigroup lowered Occidental's target to USD 51 from USD 56 with a Neutral rating.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 14/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.7m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.8m build), gasoline stockpiles fell below expectations, and distillate inventories declined more than anticipated.
US natural gas inventories rose by 9 Bcf for the week ending 14/Mar, more than analyst expectations of a 3 Bcf build. Inventories are 10% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Barclays cut Exxon's price target to USD 135 from USD 137 with an Overweight rating, while Citigroup lowered Occidental's target to USD 51 from USD 56 with a Neutral rating.


[ETP 2025/12] WTI Gains on Geopolitical Uncertainty, Henry Hub Falls on Rising Nat-Gas Stockpiles

<ul>
<li>Norges Bank repurchased sizable stakes in BP, Chevron, Exxon, Halliburton, and SLB after fully exiting these positions in Q3, mirroring its Q2 buying spree.</li>
<li>Mediolanum International Funds sold its entire BP stake, Westwood Global Investments exited Shell, and Old Mission Capital divested from TotalEnergies.</li>
<li>BlackRock, State Street, and J.P. Morgan reduced their stakes in Chevron, while BNY Mellon and UBS Group increased their holdings.</li>
</ul>


Norges Bank repurchased sizable stakes in BP, Chevron, Exxon, Halliburton, and SLB after fully exiting these positions in Q3, mirroring its Q2 buying spree.
Mediolanum International Funds sold its entire BP stake, Westwood Global Investments exited Shell, and Old Mission Capital divested from TotalEnergies.
BlackRock, State Street, and J.P. Morgan reduced their stakes in Chevron, while BNY Mellon and UBS Group increased their holdings.


Investment Shifts in Oil & Gas Giants: Institutional Moves in Q4 2024

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 28/Feb, US crude inventories increased by 3.6m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 0.6m barrel decline. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly dropped.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 80 Bcf for the week ending 28/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 96 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Aramco's 2024 net profit fell 12.4% YoY on lower crude prices and weak margins. The Trump administration gives Chevron 30 days to end Venezuelan oil operations.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 28/Feb, US crude inventories increased by 3.6m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 0.6m barrel decline. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly dropped.
US natural gas inventories fell by 80 Bcf for the week ending 28/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 96 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Aramco's 2024 net profit fell 12.4% YoY on lower crude prices and weak margins. The Trump administration gives Chevron 30 days to end Venezuelan oil operations.


[ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook

Netherlands

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces and imports fuels, chemicals, and lubricants, as well as operates service station networks. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell (SHEL US)

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/12] WTI Gains on Geopolitical Uncertainty, Henry Hub Falls on Rising Nat-Gas Stockpiles

US crude inventories rose more than expected, gasoline stockpiles fell short, and natural gas inventories exceeded analyst predictions. Barclays...

Mint Finance

Investment Shifts in Oil & Gas Giants: Institutional Moves in Q4 2024

Norges Bank reacquires major oil stock stakes, while other funds and institutions make significant divestments and adjustments in their portfolios.

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook

US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Natural gas inventories fell below expectations. Aramco's 2024 profit...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

​US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/12] WTI Gains on Geopolitical Uncertainty, Henry Hub Falls on Rising Nat-Gas Stockpiles

​US crude inventories rose more than expected, gasoline stockpiles fell short, and natural gas inventories exceeded analyst predictions. Barclays...

Mint Finance

Investment Shifts in Oil & Gas Giants: Institutional Moves in Q4 2024

​Norges Bank reacquires major oil stock stakes, while other funds and institutions make significant divestments and adjustments in their portfolios.

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Natural gas inventories fell below expectations. Aramco's 2024 profit...

Mint Finance

US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...

US crude inventories rose more than expected, gasoline stockpiles fell short, and natural gas inventories exceeded analyst predictions. Barclays...

Norges Bank reacquires major oil stock stakes, while other funds and institutions make significant divestments and adjustments in their portfolios.

US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Natural gas inventories fell below expectations. Aramco's 2024 profit...