Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>An unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories pushed oil prices down but the ongoing conflicts capped the downside.</li>
<li>Growing natural gas output dampens Henry Hub’s uptrend. Europe will ban transshipments of Russian LNG in its ports from March 2025.</li>
<li>Chevron's Wheatstone LNG facility in Australia resumed full production. Wells Fargo lowered its target price on Shell but raised it on Occidental.</li>
</ul>


An unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories pushed oil prices down but the ongoing conflicts capped the downside.
Growing natural gas output dampens Henry Hub’s uptrend. Europe will ban transshipments of Russian LNG in its ports from March 2025.
Chevron's Wheatstone LNG facility in Australia resumed full production. Wells Fargo lowered its target price on Shell but raised it on Occidental.


[ETP 26/2024] Oil Prices Drop on Surprise Inventory Build; Oil Majors Slide but Retain Gains

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").</li>
<li>Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.</li>
<li>This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.</li>
</ul>


This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").
Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.
This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.


Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Shell | attracts healthy appetite for its US Chemicals assets • Unilever/MICC | Ben & Jerry’s dispute remains an overhang • PostNL/InPost | MyPup targets 1,000 indoor APMs by YE27 • TomTom | Traffic selected by Cofiroute • Triodos Bank | CEO Belgium leaves to join PMC’s ExCo</li></ul>

In this edition: • Shell | attracts healthy appetite for its US Chemicals assets • Unilever/MICC | Ben & Jerry’s dispute remains an overhang • PostNL/InPost | MyPup targets 1,000 indoor APMs by YE27 • TomTom | Traffic selected by Cofiroute • Triodos Bank | CEO Belgium leaves to join PMC’s ExCo

What's News in Amsterdam - 25 August (Shell | Unilever/MICC | PostNL/InPost | TomTom | Triodos Bank)

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Solara Active Pharma Sciences / Equity Bottom-Up

Solara Active Pharma Sciences (SOLARA IN)

<ul>
<li>Solara's Q1 FY27 consolidated net profit rose 55% YoY to INR 16.3 crore on 19.5% revenue growth, its strongest quarterly EBITDA in 18 quarters.</li>
<li>Debt has fallen sharply on rights-issue proceeds and a CRISIL rating upgrade, just as management weighs strategic options, including a possible sale, for the loss-making Ibuprofen business.</li>
<li>How the base API and CRAMS franchise's structural margin recovery could change Solara's earnings trajectory through FY27, and where the risks still sit.</li>
</ul>


Solara's Q1 FY27 consolidated net profit rose 55% YoY to INR 16.3 crore on 19.5% revenue growth, its strongest quarterly EBITDA in 18 quarters.
Debt has fallen sharply on rights-issue proceeds and a CRISIL rating upgrade, just as management weighs strategic options, including a possible sale, for the loss-making Ibuprofen business.
How the base API and CRAMS franchise's structural margin recovery could change Solara's earnings trajectory through FY27, and where the risks still sit.


Solara Active Pharma: Carving Out Ibuprofen to Recapture Margin

Netherlands

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces and imports fuels, chemicals, and lubricants, as well as operates service station networks. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell (SHEL US)

[ETP 26/2024] Oil Prices Drop on Surprise Inventory Build; Oil Majors Slide but Retain Gains

Inventory build-up in the US points to signs of weaker-than-expected summer demand, Nat-gas prices hit by rising output. Uptrend in oil & gas...

Mint Finance

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

What's News in Amsterdam - 25 August (Shell | Unilever/MICC | PostNL/InPost | TomTom | Triodos Bank)

In this edition: • Shell | attracts healthy appetite for its US Chemicals assets • Unilever/MICC | Ben & Jerry’s dispute remains an...

The IDEA!

Solara Active Pharma: Carving Out Ibuprofen to Recapture Margin

Solara's Q1 FY27 net profit up 55% YoY to INR 16.3 crore, debt reduced, considering sale of loss-making Ibuprofen business, potential for margin...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[ETP 26/2024] Oil Prices Drop on Surprise Inventory Build; Oil Majors Slide but Retain Gains

Inventory build-up in the US points to signs of weaker-than-expected summer demand, Nat-gas prices hit by rising output. Uptrend in oil & gas...

Mint Finance

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

What's News in Amsterdam - 25 August (Shell | Unilever/MICC | PostNL/InPost | TomTom | Triodos Bank)

In this edition: • Shell | attracts healthy appetite for its US Chemicals assets • Unilever/MICC | Ben & Jerry’s dispute remains an...

The IDEA!

Solara Active Pharma: Carving Out Ibuprofen to Recapture Margin

​Solara's Q1 FY27 net profit up 55% YoY to INR 16.3 crore, debt reduced, considering sale of loss-making Ibuprofen business, potential for margin...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Solara's Q1 FY27 net profit up 55% YoY to INR 16.3 crore, debt reduced, considering sale of loss-making Ibuprofen business, potential for margin...