HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhen International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The REIT issuance of the Hangzhou and Guizhou logistics assets of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> has entered the final stage, reflecting its ability to realise asset values.</li>
<li>We estimate SZI may book gain of around Rmb300m in 2H23, or more likely 1H24, and this will support good HoH and YoY rebound in its earnings. </li>
<li>These assets only accounted for 8% and 5% of SZI's total portfolio area and value, respectively, suggesting there is still immense room for capital gain from its remaining assets.</li>
</ul>


The REIT issuance of the Hangzhou and Guizhou logistics assets of Shenzhen International (152 HK) has entered the final stage, reflecting its ability to realise asset values.
We estimate SZI may book gain of around Rmb300m in 2H23, or more likely 1H24, and this will support good HoH and YoY rebound in its earnings. 
These assets only accounted for 8% and 5% of SZI's total portfolio area and value, respectively, suggesting there is still immense room for capital gain from its remaining assets.


Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Another Monetisation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115216" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-updates-tilts-the-balance-positively" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114387" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively</a>. 
</li>
<li>The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively. 

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, is pre-marketing a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>The PHIP filing favours the bull case due to a return to organic growth across the main geographies, maiden profitability, stabilization in contract liabilities and declining FCF burn.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, is pre-marketing a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.   
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case. 
The PHIP filing favours the bull case due to a return to organic growth across the main geographies, maiden profitability, stabilization in contract liabilities and declining FCF burn.


J&T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> aims to complete the IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a> in the next 12 to 18 months. Alibaba holds a 67% stake in Cainiao. </li>
<li>Cainiao's revenue growth, while on a declining trend, remains in double digits. Encouragingly. narrowing losses set a path to profitability.</li>
<li>On 30 March, Bloomberg reported that Cainiao is currently valued at more than US$20 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that such a valuation is justifiable.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) aims to complete the IPO of Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) in the next 12 to 18 months. Alibaba holds a 67% stake in Cainiao. 
Cainiao's revenue growth, while on a declining trend, remains in double digits. Encouragingly. narrowing losses set a path to profitability.
On 30 March, Bloomberg reported that Cainiao is currently valued at more than US$20 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that such a valuation is justifiable.


Hong Kong

Shenzhen International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment, construction, and operation of logistic infrastructure facilities, as well as offers value-added logistic services. Shenzhen International serves customers worldwide.

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Shenzhen International (152 HK)

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Another Monetisation

REIT issuance of Hangzhou and Guizhou logistics assets is nearing completion, showcasing SZI's ability to unlock asset values. Many of its assets...

Osbert Tang, CFA

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively

The PHIP filing favours the bull case due to a return to organic growth across the main geographies, maiden profitability, stabilization in...

Arun George

Alibaba’s Cainiao IPO: The First Look

Alibaba has submitted a listing plan to HKEx to spin-off Cainiao. After the spin-off, Alibaba will hold over 50% of outstanding shares. The share...

Arun George

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