HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's Central Document No.1 emphasizes the need to boost the agricultural industry and improve well-being of the peasants. We see the directions positive for the agricultural sector.</li>
<li>Direct beneficiaries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinofert-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:893:1" rel="noopener">Sinofert Holdings (297 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-xlx-fertiliser-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5679:1" rel="noopener">China Xlx Fertiliser (1866 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-tractor-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12416:1" rel="noopener">First Tractor Co H (38 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-tianye-water-saving-irrigation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10975:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Tianye Water Saving Irrigation (840 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Growing rural affluence is positive to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>, while cold chain network buildout is good to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Intl (152 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


China's Central Document No.1 emphasizes the need to boost the agricultural industry and improve well-being of the peasants. We see the directions positive for the agricultural sector.
Direct beneficiaries are Sinofert Holdings (297 HK), China Xlx Fertiliser (1866 HK), First Tractor Co H (38 HK) and Xinjiang Tianye Water Saving Irrigation (840 HK). 
Growing rural affluence is positive to BYD (1211 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) and Pinduoduo (PDD US), while cold chain network buildout is good to Shenzhen Intl (152 HK). 


China Agricultural Sector: A Read into China Central Document No.1

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhen International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given Shenzhen Airlines is already in negative equity, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> will not record any of its losses in 2H22, making a big HoH swing in its impact.</li>
<li>The injections of Hangzhou and Hefei logistics projects will be completed by end-FY22, bringing in one-off gains. Jul-Aug toll revenue of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK)</a> has also recovered vs. 1H22.</li>
<li>While there will not be profit at logistics parks transformation business in 2H22, Qianhai Phase II has completed pre-sale in Sep, bring in potentially Rmb3bn to be booked in FY23.</li>
</ul>


Given Shenzhen Airlines is already in negative equity, Shenzhen International (152 HK) will not record any of its losses in 2H22, making a big HoH swing in its impact.
The injections of Hangzhou and Hefei logistics projects will be completed by end-FY22, bringing in one-off gains. Jul-Aug toll revenue of Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) has also recovered vs. 1H22.
While there will not be profit at logistics parks transformation business in 2H22, Qianhai Phase II has completed pre-sale in Sep, bring in potentially Rmb3bn to be booked in FY23.


Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Updates on Latest Developments

<ul>
<li>The 1H22 result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> is 4% ahead of indicated in profit warning. Key drags are toll roads and Shenzhen Airlines, but their 2H22 outlook is better.</li>
<li>It will see many new logistics projects to commence operations in the next 12-18 months. Also, SZI guided that it will continue to realise underlying asset value through strategic disposals.</li>
<li>We think the toughest time should be behind and expect more positive news on asset gains. The stock is very cheap at 0.41x P/B and 58% discount to appraised NAV. </li>
</ul>


The 1H22 result of Shenzhen International (152 HK) is 4% ahead of indicated in profit warning. Key drags are toll roads and Shenzhen Airlines, but their 2H22 outlook is better.
It will see many new logistics projects to commence operations in the next 12-18 months. Also, SZI guided that it will continue to realise underlying asset value through strategic disposals.
We think the toughest time should be behind and expect more positive news on asset gains. The stock is very cheap at 0.41x P/B and 58% discount to appraised NAV. 


Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): The Toughest Time Should Be over Now

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gogox-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35556:1" rel="noopener">GoGoX Holdings (GOGO HK)</a> is a major online intra-city logistics platform in Asia. It has passed the listing hearing for an HKEx IPO to raise US$100-150 million.   </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gogox-ipo-initiation-a-less-than-perfect-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:64922" rel="noopener">GOGOX IPO Initiation: A Less than Perfect Delivery</a>, we noted that as the losses are expected to persist over the next three years, we would avoid the IPO.</li>
<li>In this note, we examine the PHIP for the 2021 results and recent developments. The fundamentals remain unattractive and we would give the IPO a pass. </li>
</ul>



GoGoX Holdings (GOGO HK) is a major online intra-city logistics platform in Asia. It has passed the listing hearing for an HKEx IPO to raise US$100-150 million.   
In GOGOX IPO Initiation: A Less than Perfect Delivery, we noted that as the losses are expected to persist over the next three years, we would avoid the IPO.
In this note, we examine the PHIP for the 2021 results and recent developments. The fundamentals remain unattractive and we would give the IPO a pass. 


<ul>
<li>Infrastructure, new energy, consumer discretionary and, to a lesser extent, transportation and logistics are sectors that will benefit from extensive government economic supportive policies over the last few days. </li>
<li>Acceleration of special purpose bonds will drive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a>. We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> benefit from new energy initiatives.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a> will be the near-term winner in the consumer discretionary space and so as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Infrastructure, new energy, consumer discretionary and, to a lesser extent, transportation and logistics are sectors that will benefit from extensive government economic supportive policies over the last few days. 
Acceleration of special purpose bonds will drive China Communications Construction (1800 HK). We see China Longyuan Power (916 HK) and Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) benefit from new energy initiatives.

Li Ning (2331 HK) will be the near-term winner in the consumer discretionary space and so as Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK).


Roundup of Government Economic Supportive Policies: Key Winners

Hong Kong

Shenzhen International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment, construction, and operation of logistic infrastructure facilities, as well as offers value-added logistic services. Shenzhen International serves customers worldwide.

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Shenzhen International (152 HK)

China Agricultural Sector: A Read into China Central Document No.1

Directions in China's Central Document No.1 in 2023 are positive for the agricultural sector. We see direct benficiaries being Sinofert, China XLX...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Updates on Latest Developments

We find positive developments which point to HoH improvement in 2H22 earnings. Recovery of toll roads, lessening of loss burden in Shenzhen...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): The Toughest Time Should Be over Now

1H22 is bad but behind us now. We anticipate sequential earnings improvement in 2H22 as the impact of pandemic fades. SZI will continue to realise...

Osbert Tang, CFA

GOGOX IPO: Growth at All Costs

GOGOX has passed the listing hearing for an HKEx IPO to raise US$100-150m. The fundamentals remain unattractive and we would give the IPO a pass.

Arun George

Roundup of Government Economic Supportive Policies: Key Winners

We expect the government economic supportive policies released in the last few days to drive the infrastructure, new energy, consumer discretionary...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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