HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhen International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a>'s FY24 net profit will range at HK$2.8-3.1bn (53-63% growth YoY), boosted by a HK$2.3bn gain from South China Logistics Park Transformation.</li>
<li>Extrapolating this gain to the whole land plot will generate a profit of HK$11.4bn, or 66% of the current market capitalisation. The stock is significantly undervalued at 0.49x P/B. </li>
<li>At an assumed 50% payout ratio, SZI's yield is at 9%. Moreover, with stable profit expected for FY25 and FY26, the yield will be maintained for the next two years.</li>
</ul>



Shenzhen International (152 HK)'s FY24 net profit will range at HK$2.8-3.1bn (53-63% growth YoY), boosted by a HK$2.3bn gain from South China Logistics Park Transformation.
Extrapolating this gain to the whole land plot will generate a profit of HK$11.4bn, or 66% of the current market capitalisation. The stock is significantly undervalued at 0.49x P/B. 
At an assumed 50% payout ratio, SZI's yield is at 9%. Moreover, with stable profit expected for FY25 and FY26, the yield will be maintained for the next two years.


Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Good News from Positive Profit Alert

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> is well set to post a significant YoY and HoH growth in earnings in 2H23. Our discussion with the company confirmed this.  </li>
<li>Profit from Yicheng Qiwanli is expected to be booked and there will be profit upside from REIT listing with logistics hubs at Hangzhou and Guizhou as underlying assets.</li>
<li>Significant reduction in USD and HKD-denominated debt will reduce its exposure to foreign exchange losses as well as high interest rate, both will be reflected in 2H23.</li>
</ul>



Shenzhen International (152 HK) is well set to post a significant YoY and HoH growth in earnings in 2H23. Our discussion with the company confirmed this.  
Profit from Yicheng Qiwanli is expected to be booked and there will be profit upside from REIT listing with logistics hubs at Hangzhou and Guizhou as underlying assets.
Significant reduction in USD and HKD-denominated debt will reduce its exposure to foreign exchange losses as well as high interest rate, both will be reflected in 2H23.


Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Conversation with Company Affirms 2H23 Outlook

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.</li>
<li>In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.</li>
<li>Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. </li>
</ul>


Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.
In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.
Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. 


Chinese Developers’ Overview - Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 20 April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18097:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Property (123 HK)</a> announced plans to raise US$1.1 billion through 30 rights shares for every 100 existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$9.00.</li>
<li>Since the announcement of the rights issue, Yuexiu shares have declined by -23.6% to the undisturbed price and by -18.2% compared to the TERP of HK$11.74 per share.</li>
<li>The shares went ex-rights on 2 May and the rights start trading on 15 May. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>’s trading over its rights period provides the playbook for Yuexiu’s trading.</li>
</ul>


On 20 April, Yuexiu Property (123 HK) announced plans to raise US$1.1 billion through 30 rights shares for every 100 existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$9.00.
Since the announcement of the rights issue, Yuexiu shares have declined by -23.6% to the undisturbed price and by -18.2% compared to the TERP of HK$11.74 per share.
The shares went ex-rights on 2 May and the rights start trading on 15 May. Link REIT (823 HK)’s trading over its rights period provides the playbook for Yuexiu’s trading.


Yuexiu Property (123 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18097:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Property (123 HK)</a> will raise US$1.1bn through a rights offering - 30 rights shares for every 100 existing shares. The subscription price is HK$9.00, a 23.3% discount to TERP.</li>
<li>As Yuexiu is in no danger of breaching the three red lines, the rights issue is an opportunistic play on capitalising on the strong share price run.</li>
<li>Rights shares will be entitled to the final and special dividend announced on 15 March. Shares go ex-rights on 2 May and the rights start trading on 15 May.</li>
</ul>



Yuexiu Property (123 HK) will raise US$1.1bn through a rights offering - 30 rights shares for every 100 existing shares. The subscription price is HK$9.00, a 23.3% discount to TERP.
As Yuexiu is in no danger of breaching the three red lines, the rights issue is an opportunistic play on capitalising on the strong share price run.
Rights shares will be entitled to the final and special dividend announced on 15 March. Shares go ex-rights on 2 May and the rights start trading on 15 May.


Yuexiu Property (123 HK): US$1.1bn Dilutive and Unnecessary Rights Issue

Hong Kong

Shenzhen Investment Limited is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, property investment, and comprehensive urban operation services in Mainland China. It also engages in innovative businesses such as high-tech agriculture and high-end manufacturing. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Shenzhen Investment (604 HK)

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Good News from Positive Profit Alert

Shenzhen Intl's positive profit alert suggested FY24 net profit will grow by 53-63% YoY, boosted by the gain from South China Logistics Park...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Conversation with Company Affirms 2H23 Outlook

Shenzhen Intl's FY23 result is a tad below consensus, but it still logged a decent 52% YoY increase. In particular, net profit surged 1.7x YoY in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese Developers’ Overview - Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity

Country Garden Holdings just launched a primary placement to raise US$300m, at a fixed 17.7% discount to last close. Proceeds will be used to repay...

Clarence Chu

Yuexiu Property (123 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

Yuexiu shares have declined by -18.2% compared to the TERP of HK$11.74 per share. Link REIT’s trading over its rights period provides the playbook...

Arun George

Yuexiu Property (123 HK): US$1.1bn Dilutive and Unnecessary Rights Issue

As Yuexiu is in no danger of breaching the three red lines, the rights issue is an opportunistic play on capitalising on the strong share price run.

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Good News from Positive Profit Alert

​Shenzhen Intl's positive profit alert suggested FY24 net profit will grow by 53-63% YoY, boosted by the gain from South China Logistics Park...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Conversation with Company Affirms 2H23 Outlook

Shenzhen Intl's FY23 result is a tad below consensus, but it still logged a decent 52% YoY increase. In particular, net profit surged 1.7x YoY in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese Developers’ Overview - Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity

Country Garden Holdings just launched a primary placement to raise US$300m, at a fixed 17.7% discount to last close. Proceeds will be used to repay...

Clarence Chu

Yuexiu Property (123 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

Yuexiu shares have declined by -18.2% compared to the TERP of HK$11.74 per share. Link REIT’s trading over its rights period provides the playbook...

Arun George

Yuexiu Property (123 HK): US$1.1bn Dilutive and Unnecessary Rights Issue

As Yuexiu is in no danger of breaching the three red lines, the rights issue is an opportunistic play on capitalising on the strong share price run.

Arun George

Shenzhen Intl's positive profit alert suggested FY24 net profit will grow by 53-63% YoY, boosted by the gain from South China Logistics Park...