HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech C-A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>COVID-19 didn’t bring Wondfo explosive performance growth because China’s official COVID-19 detection method is nucleic acid test while Wondfo’s strength is antigen detection,which is used in later stage of COVID-19.</li>
<li>Revenue growth would slow down in 2023 due to the high base last year.2023 is a good time to bottom fish this stock as Wondfo’s performance growth would recover afterwards.</li>
<li>After continuous corrections, the current valuation is already at a low level, and has already priced in the negative impact of the decline in COVID-19 business and IVD centralized procurement.</li>
</ul>


COVID-19 didn’t bring Wondfo explosive performance growth because China’s official COVID-19 detection method is nucleic acid test while Wondfo’s strength is antigen detection,which is used in later stage of COVID-19.
Revenue growth would slow down in 2023 due to the high base last year.2023 is a good time to bottom fish this stock as Wondfo’s performance growth would recover afterwards.
After continuous corrections, the current valuation is already at a low level, and has already priced in the negative impact of the decline in COVID-19 business and IVD centralized procurement.


Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech (300482.CH) - Time to Bottom Fish?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

<ul>
<li>The quit of the centralized procurement of chemiluminescence products in Anhui directly put <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autobio-diagnostics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30185:1" rel="noopener">Autobio Diagnostics (603658 CH)</a> in a passive position. The implications could be deeper and more complex than expected.</li>
<li>Autobio didn’t seize COVID-19 testing opportunities, leading to the doubts about the Company's market sensitivity and team execution, thus losing the opportunity to generate substantial cash flow for future acquisitions.</li>
<li>Together with weak internationalization business, Autobio's future performance growth could be uncertain and may not be able to support the rapid valuation expansion as expected.</li>
</ul>


The quit of the centralized procurement of chemiluminescence products in Anhui directly put Autobio Diagnostics (603658 CH) in a passive position. The implications could be deeper and more complex than expected.
Autobio didn’t seize COVID-19 testing opportunities, leading to the doubts about the Company's market sensitivity and team execution, thus losing the opportunity to generate substantial cash flow for future acquisitions.
Together with weak internationalization business, Autobio's future performance growth could be uncertain and may not be able to support the rapid valuation expansion as expected.


Autobio Diagnostics Co Ltd (603658.CH) - Logic Changes

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A / Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A (300832 CH)

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A

<p>Recently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-new-industries-biomedical-engineering-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29889:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A (300832 CH)</a> (SNIBE) released its 2021/1H financial results. The revenue was RMB1.226 billion, up 26.35% YoY. Net profit attributed to shareholders was RMB429 million, down 9.90% YoY. Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 383 million, down 12.28% YoY. The performance was lower-than-expected. Meanwhile, there was document about the centralized procurement on test reagents in the field of chemiluminescence in Anhui Province, which was released on August 19, 2021, and SNIBE’s share price decreased about 14.34% on August 20. This insight mainly analyzed the business of the Company and the potential impact of centralized procurement. </p>

Recently, Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A (300832 CH) (SNIBE) released its 2021/1H financial results. The revenue was RMB1.226 billion, up 26.35% YoY. Net profit attributed to shareholders was RMB429 million, down 9.90% YoY. Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 383 million, down 12.28% YoY. The performance was lower-than-expected. Meanwhile, there was document about the centralized procurement on test reagents in the field of chemiluminescence in Anhui Province, which was released on August 19, 2021, and SNIBE’s share price decreased about 14.34% on August 20. This insight mainly analyzed the business of the Company and the potential impact of centralized procurement. 

New Industries Biomedical Engineering (300832.CH) - The Centralized Procurement Changes the Logic

Beijing Wantai Biological Phar / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH)

<p>By the end of July 13, 2021, the stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-wantai-biological-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30129:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Wantai Biological-A (603392 CH) </a>was closed at RMB279.1/share, up 3090% compared with its IPO price (RMB8.75/share) in April, 2020. Last week, Wantai announced that its wholly-owned IVD subsidiary planned to invest RMB1.336 billion to build a new industrial base. After the completion of the project, it will have a reagent production capacity of 500 million persons per year and a inspection equipment production capacity of 9000 units/year. This insight mainly analyzed the outlook of Wantai’s IVD business and its core HPV vaccine business and the related concerns.</p>

By the end of July 13, 2021, the stock price of Beijing Wantai Biological-A (603392 CH) was closed at RMB279.1/share, up 3090% compared with its IPO price (RMB8.75/share) in April, 2020. Last week, Wantai announced that its wholly-owned IVD subsidiary planned to invest RMB1.336 billion to build a new industrial base. After the completion of the project, it will have a reagent production capacity of 500 million persons per year and a inspection equipment production capacity of 9000 units/year. This insight mainly analyzed the outlook of Wantai’s IVD business and its core HPV vaccine business and the related concerns.

Beijing Wantai Biological (603392.CH) - How to Support Its High Valuation?

China

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co., Ltd. operates as a biomedical company. The Company researches, develops, produces, and sells clinical laboratory instrument and vitro diagnostic reagent. Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering also offers related technical service.

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Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A (300832 CH)

Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech (300482.CH) - Time to Bottom Fish?

Overall revenue growth would inevitably slow down in 2023, but Wondfo's non-COVID business recovered well in 23Q1, which shows us the momentum to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

We see 50 changes a side for the CSI500 in Dec. The Industrials sector could take a lot of index spots from Materials as one-way turnover exceeds...

Brian Freitas

Autobio Diagnostics Co Ltd (603658.CH) - Logic Changes

It's not wise for Autobio to quit chemiluminescence centralized procurement in Anhui.The failure of seizing COVID-19 testing opportunity and weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

New Industries Biomedical Engineering (300832.CH) - The Centralized Procurement Changes the Logic

The insight analyzed Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering in terms of its business,the potential impact of centralized procurement in the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Wantai Biological (603392.CH) - How to Support Its High Valuation?

This article mainly analyzed Wantai in terms of the two core business IVD and HPV vaccine, their business outlook, the market pattern and the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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