Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nike-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6658:1" rel="noopener">Nike (NKE US)</a> reported better than expected 1Q24 results this morning, with the stock up 8% in after market trading. </li>
<li>Nike's inventories declined by 10% yoy during the quarter, which bodes well for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a>, as sales to Nike made up 30% of Shenzhou's sales. </li>
<li>Shenzhou is trading at 15x 2024E PE, compared to an average of 21x forward PE over the last decade. </li>
</ul>



Nike (NKE US) reported better than expected 1Q24 results this morning, with the stock up 8% in after market trading. 
Nike's inventories declined by 10% yoy during the quarter, which bodes well for Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK), as sales to Nike made up 30% of Shenzhou's sales. 
Shenzhou is trading at 15x 2024E PE, compared to an average of 21x forward PE over the last decade. 


Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike's Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24

President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

<ul>
<li>Key customers &amp; their retail partners battling excess inventory, waning consumer demand, and market share losses in certain geographies</li>
<li>Plans for capacity expansion amid demand uncertainties and alt data and macro picture may prove aggressive and along with risks of reshoring/nearshoring &amp; friend-shoring may prove margin dilutive</li>
<li>Consensus expectations for 2H23 and 2024 appear overly optimistic and valuation is not cheap given the growth profile</li>
</ul>


Key customers &amp; their retail partners battling excess inventory, waning consumer demand, and market share losses in certain geographies
Plans for capacity expansion amid demand uncertainties and alt data and macro picture may prove aggressive and along with risks of reshoring/nearshoring &amp; friend-shoring may prove margin dilutive
Consensus expectations for 2H23 and 2024 appear overly optimistic and valuation is not cheap given the growth profile


Shenzhou (2313 HK): Contract Mfr for Leading Sportswear Brands Facing Challenging Demand Outlook.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-petroleum-chemical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:369:1" rel="noopener">China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK)</a> broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).

PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) and China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK) broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

China

Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd manufactures and processes textiles.  The Company produces, dyes, finishes, prints, embroiders, cuts, and sews knitwear.

Price Gauge
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Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK): Nike's Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24

Note the strong share price momentum. Shenzhou (2313 HK) remains the best proxy for gaining exposure to the global sportswear sector.

Steve

Shenzhou (2313 HK): Contract Mfr for Leading Sportswear Brands Facing Challenging Demand Outlook.

Consensus estimates do not account for customer, retailer, Asian market share shift, macro, alt data and geopolitical risks.

Robert C Prather Jr

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Hong Kong market broke its downtrend however it met strong resistance just above 18k. PICC and Sinopec broke to new highs relative to MSCI...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

We made small changes to the HK Alpha portfolio mid-month. At the close on 12/12 we sold all of First Pacific (142 HK) and added 2% to our...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK): Nike's Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24

Note the strong share price momentum. Shenzhou (2313 HK) remains the best proxy for gaining exposure to the global sportswear sector.

Steve

Shenzhou (2313 HK): Contract Mfr for Leading Sportswear Brands Facing Challenging Demand Outlook.

Consensus estimates do not account for customer, retailer, Asian market share shift, macro, alt data and geopolitical risks.

Robert C Prather Jr

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Hong Kong market broke its downtrend however it met strong resistance just above 18k. PICC and Sinopec broke to new highs relative to MSCI...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

We made small changes to the HK Alpha portfolio mid-month. At the close on 12/12 we sold all of First Pacific (142 HK) and added 2% to our...

David Mudd

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...