Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

<ul>
<li>I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Six new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">AUB  (AUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE (9956 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scsk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19996:1" rel="noopener">SCSK (9719 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainpad-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11499:1" rel="noopener">Brainpad (3655 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-riko-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14955:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-densetsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1530:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashimori-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13918:1" rel="noopener">Ashimori Industry (3526 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/restaurant-brands-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11891:1" rel="noopener">Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Six new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: AUB  (AUB AU), ANE (9956 HK), SCSK (9719 JP), Brainpad (3655 JP), Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP), and Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Humm Group (HUM AU), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ). 


Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SCSK Corp, AUB, Brainpad, ANE Cayman, Sumitomo Densetsu, Sumitomo Densetsu

<ul>
<li>Palliser discloxes stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a>, and subsequently seeks to spill the board and undertake buybacks. </li>
<li>The family  increased their bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)</a> by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share. This now becomes a short-term rate of return trade. It will trade relatively tight.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> appears to have squeezed the most out its unlisted subsidiary MPIC, for now, with the forthcoming Maynilad IPO.</li>
</ul>


Palliser discloxes stake in LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS), and subsequently seeks to spill the board and undertake buybacks. 
The family  increased their bid for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share. This now becomes a short-term rate of return trade. It will trade relatively tight.

First Pacific Co (142 HK) appears to have squeezed the most out its unlisted subsidiary MPIC, for now, with the forthcoming Maynilad IPO.


Last Week In Event SPACE: LG Chem, Pacific Industrial, Critical Minerals, First Pacific

<ul>
<li>On the 31sr July, Chinese property play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joy-city-property-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10958:1" rel="noopener">Joy City (207 HK)</a> announced a Scheme buyback, @ $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but arguably a 158% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>Yes, this was a ~70% discount to NAV. However, Joy City had traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1023/2025102300920.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Document's now out</a>, with a Court Meeting on the 17th November and expected payment around the 4th December. The IFA (Somerley) says "fair &amp; reasonable". It probably is.</li>
</ul>


On the 31sr July, Chinese property play Joy City (207 HK) announced a Scheme buyback, @ $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but arguably a 158% premium to undisturbed.
Yes, this was a ~70% discount to NAV. However, Joy City had traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe.

The Scheme Document's now out, with a Court Meeting on the 17th November and expected payment around the 4th December. The IFA (Somerley) says "fair &amp; reasonable". It probably is.


Joy City (207 HK): 17th November Vote On COFCO's Offer

<ul>
<li>After suspending shares on the 30th September, SOE-Backed, Chinese property play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minmetals-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1917:1" rel="noopener">Minmetals Land (230 HK)</a>, has now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1023/2025102300765.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an Offer, by way of a Scheme buyback, from parent China Minmetals. </li>
<li>The Offer Price of HK$1/share, declared final, is a punchy 185.71% premium to last close. And also a 179% premium over the 30th June 2025 NAV. Optically, looks solid also.</li>
<li>Disinterested shareholders hold 38.12%. They should be happy with terms. This should wrap up (perhaps) late February 2026. </li>
</ul>


After suspending shares on the 30th September, SOE-Backed, Chinese property play Minmetals Land (230 HK), has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme buyback, from parent China Minmetals. 
The Offer Price of HK$1/share, declared final, is a punchy 185.71% premium to last close. And also a 179% premium over the 30th June 2025 NAV. Optically, looks solid also.
Disinterested shareholders hold 38.12%. They should be happy with terms. This should wrap up (perhaps) late February 2026. 


Minmetals Land (230 HK): An Offer Premium Of 179% To NAV? Yes Please

Japan

SHIBAURA ELECTRONICS CO., LTD. manufactures and sells thermistor elements, sensors, measuring devices, and control equipment.  The Company's products include temperature sensors, air flow sensors, liquid level sensors, gas sensors, digital thermometers, temperature controllers, anemometers, digital hygrometers, and humidity controllers.

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Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

For the month of Oct 2025, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$33bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SCSK Corp, AUB, Brainpad, ANE Cayman, Sumitomo Densetsu, Sumitomo Densetsu

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: LG Chem, Pacific Industrial, Critical Minerals, First Pacific

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Joy City (207 HK): 17th November Vote On COFCO's Offer

Trading wide at a 3.8%/111.4% gross/annualised spread. To be expected. If small-cap illiquid arbs are your bent, get involved here. Otherwise, this...

David Blennerhassett

Minmetals Land (230 HK): An Offer Premium Of 179% To NAV? Yes Please

Clean deal. If small-cap illiquid arbs are your bent get involved here. I'd pay up to HK$0.95/share, assuming end of February 2026 payment.

David Blennerhassett

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