Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.</li>
<li>For now, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping is off, but there's an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there's an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> s share price has been down 65% YTD as the company’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement led to fall in margins which concerned the market.</li>
<li>However, the company has adopted several measures to improve its margins, and we expect the investment in HR and others to generate results going forward.</li>
<li>Though share price has moved up slightly, valuation multiples are at a steep discount, and we would look for building a position.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) s share price has been down 65% YTD as the company’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement led to fall in margins which concerned the market.
However, the company has adopted several measures to improve its margins, and we expect the investment in HR and others to generate results going forward.
Though share price has moved up slightly, valuation multiples are at a steep discount, and we would look for building a position.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225 Index</a> over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.
The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the Nikkei225 Index over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.
Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.</li>
<li>• Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.</li>
<li>Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.
• Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.
Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.


Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

<ul><li>In Q1 FY08/25, the company reported sales of JPY30.2bn, gross profit of JPY10.0bn, and net income of JPY2.0bn.</li><li>Software Testing Related Services segment sales reached JPY19.3bn, with operating profit at JPY4.8bn, driven by higher utilization rates.</li><li>Software Development Related Services segment sales were JPY9.7bn, with operating profit of JPY711mn, aided by ERP project expansion.</li></ul>

In Q1 FY08/25, the company reported sales of JPY30.2bn, gross profit of JPY10.0bn, and net income of JPY2.0bn.Software Testing Related Services segment sales reached JPY19.3bn, with operating profit at JPY4.8bn, driven by higher utilization rates.Software Development Related Services segment sales were JPY9.7bn, with operating profit of JPY711mn, aided by ERP project expansion.

Shift Inc (3697 JP): Q1 FY08/25 flash update

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

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Shift Inc (3697 JP)

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

The Nikkei 225 Sep rebal has just 0.6% of its data window left. Rankings are basically fixed. Fastie capping depends on next 6wks. I see 1 Add/Del;...

Travis Lundy

Shift: Is It a Good Time to Buy?

Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

Shift's share price rose 13% after strong 1QFY08/2025 results. Key highlight was operating profits which beat consensus by a huge margin. Fall in...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Shift Inc (3697 JP): Q1 FY08/25 flash update

In Q1 FY08/25, the company reported sales of JPY30.2bn, gross profit of JPY10.0bn, and net income of JPY2.0bn. Software Testing Related Services...

Shared Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

The Nikkei 225 Sep rebal has just 0.6% of its data window left. Rankings are basically fixed. Fastie capping depends on next 6wks. I see 1 Add/Del;...

Travis Lundy

Shift: Is It a Good Time to Buy?

​Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

​Shift's share price rose 13% after strong 1QFY08/2025 results. Key highlight was operating profits which beat consensus by a huge margin. Fall in...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Shift Inc (3697 JP): Q1 FY08/25 flash update

In Q1 FY08/25, the company reported sales of JPY30.2bn, gross profit of JPY10.0bn, and net income of JPY2.0bn. Software Testing Related Services...

Shared Research

Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shift's share price rose 13% after strong 1QFY08/2025 results. Key highlight was operating profits which beat consensus by a huge margin. Fall in...