Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-in-hindsight-on-2024-and-draw-the-line-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Draw the Line' survey</a>, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025</li>
<li>Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024</li>
<li>Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)</li>
</ul>


This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual 'Draw the Line' survey, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025
Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024
Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)


China Property: 2025 "Draw The Line" Forecasts for New Home Sales - Results

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Feb 21- 27, 2025

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

<ul>
<li>We review the 2024 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.</li>
<li>The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in 2023, but 2024 was another unexpected negative, though not as bad as the surprise of 2022.</li>
<li>You can now join this year's <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'draw the line'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 13th Annual China Property Outlook.</li>
</ul>


We review the 2024 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.
The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in 2023, but 2024 was another unexpected negative, though not as bad as the surprise of 2022.
You can now join this year's 'draw the line' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 13th Annual China Property Outlook.


China Property: In Hindsight On 2024 And "Draw The Line" 2025

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sunac faces financial distress as China Cinda files new wind-up petition due to inability to repay debt.</li><li>Country Garden plans to reduce $11.6B offshore debt as home sales decline in current market conditions.</li><li>UOL from Singapore successfully invests $285M in Sydney office amid market revival, showcasing confidence in growth.</li></ul>

Sunac faces financial distress as China Cinda files new wind-up petition due to inability to repay debt.Country Garden plans to reduce $11.6B offshore debt as home sales decline in current market conditions.UOL from Singapore successfully invests $285M in Sydney office amid market revival, showcasing confidence in growth.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2025): Sunac unable to repay debt on time due to new petition.

Hong Kong

Shimao Property Holdings Limited develops real estate projects in China.

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Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)

China Property: 2025 "Draw The Line" Forecasts for New Home Sales - Results

This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual 'Draw the Line' survey, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Feb 21- 27, 2025

This note is a weekly (Feb 21-27, 2025, select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 31 - Feb 6, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: In Hindsight On 2024 And "Draw The Line" 2025

We review the 2024 'Draw The Line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened and put it in the context of the past forecasts....

Robert Ciemniak

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2025): Sunac unable to repay debt on time due to new petition.

China's Sunac faces financial struggles, while Country Garden and UOL make strategic moves in the real estate market to navigate economic challenges.

Asia Real Estate Tracker

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52-week Range

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P/E

Dividend (Yield)