'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/266/original/2020-04-24_08-07-36.png?1588109848" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130266"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 117 results was 52:3:62; and for the 76 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 22:2:52. Of the 82 companies announcing annual results, only 22 made forecasts for the current year, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano (7309 JP)</a> withdrew its FY2020 forecast. Our Sector Score chart is now showing some dramatic changes. Consumer Services is now the lowest-scoring Sector following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s poor full-year results. In comparison, significant declines have been seen in Transportation &amp; Logistics (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)</a> and Utilities (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2332:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Gas (9531 JP))</a>.  The Internet Content &amp; Services (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a>) and Chemicals ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>) Sectors are the largest gainers.

Source • Japan Analytics29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 117 results was 52:3:62; and for the 76 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 22:2:52. Of the 82 companies announcing annual results, only 22 made forecasts for the current year, while Shimano (7309 JP) withdrew its FY2020 forecast. Our Sector Score chart is now showing some dramatic changes. Consumer Services is now the lowest-scoring Sector following Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s poor full-year results. In comparison, significant declines have been seen in Transportation &amp; Logistics (East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP) and Utilities (Tokyo Gas (9531 JP)).  The Internet Content &amp; Services (ZOZO (3092 JP)) and Chemicals ( Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)) Sectors are the largest gainers. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 29th April - Mit.Chem, TKC, Keyence, ZOZO, Shimano. Or.Land

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/369/original/2020-01-29_05-48-09.png?1580244521" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115369"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>28TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 40 results and 14 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the larger cap companies, five saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while just two managed to grow profits by more than 10%. Revenue growth was strongest at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-general-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2025:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu General (6755 JP)</a> at +23%, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-business-consultants" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17383:1" rel="noopener">Obic Business Consultants (4733 JP)</a> saw a decline in sales of 13%. The weakest outlook came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20493:1" rel="noopener">Canon Electronics (7739 JP)</a> whose initial forecasts for FY2020 is for a 39% decline in OP to ¥4.9b. Overall our composite Results Score ticked down by 5bps to 1.07. The Forecast/REvision Score improved by 3bps to 0.21.In the DETAIL below, we review the announcements from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-general-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2025:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu General (6755 JP),</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">OBIC (4684 JP)</a>.

Source • Japan Analytics28TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 40 results and 14 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the larger cap companies, five saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while just two managed to grow profits by more than 10%. Revenue growth was strongest at Fujitsu General (6755 JP) at +23%, while Obic Business Consultants (4733 JP) saw a decline in sales of 13%. The weakest outlook came from Canon Electronics (7739 JP) whose initial forecasts for FY2020 is for a 39% decline in OP to ¥4.9b. Overall our composite Results Score ticked down by 5bps to 1.07. The Forecast/REvision Score improved by 3bps to 0.21.In the DETAIL below, we review the announcements from Fujitsu General (6755 JP),  Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP), M3 (2413 JP), and OBIC (4684 JP).   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 28th January - 6755, 4603, 2413, 4684

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Long Term Agreements (LTAs) signed as silicon wafer shortages worsened back in late 2017 have thus far helped wafer manufacturers survive the worst of the current semiconductor downturn by largely maintaining shipment volumes at guaranteed pricing. The manufacturers with the largest percentages of product covered under LTA have fared best while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siltronic-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21741:1" rel="noopener">Siltronic</a>, with the lowest LTA coverage is faring worst. By the same token, joint investment in new capacity between the wafer manufacturers and their customers has helped reduce the risks historically associated with building capacity ahead of anticipated future demand, resulting in a roughly seven fold increase in annual capex since 2015. Now, in the wake of the latest quarterly results it is becoming obvious that in fixing one set of problems, those same LTAs &amp; joint investments have created a new set of problems which will prolong the current down cycle for the wafer manufacturers, put their operating profits under increasing pressure in the quarters ahead and likely change the nature of how future LTAs &amp; joint investment programs are crafted. These are the problems we are beginning to see...

Long Term Agreements (LTAs) signed as silicon wafer shortages worsened back in late 2017 have thus far helped wafer manufacturers survive the worst of the current semiconductor downturn by largely maintaining shipment volumes at guaranteed pricing. The manufacturers with the largest percentages of product covered under LTA have fared best while Siltronic, with the lowest LTA coverage is faring worst. By the same token, joint investment in new capacity between the wafer manufacturers and their customers has helped reduce the risks historically associated with building capacity ahead of anticipated future demand, resulting in a roughly seven fold increase in annual capex since 2015. Now, in the wake of the latest quarterly results it is becoming obvious that in fixing one set of problems, those same LTAs &amp; joint investments have created a new set of problems which will prolong the current down cycle for the wafer manufacturers, put their operating profits under increasing pressure in the quarters ahead and likely change the nature of how future LTAs &amp; joint investment programs are crafted. These are the problems we are beginning to see...

Silicon Wafers Q3 2019. LTAs & Joint Investments Are Fixing Some Problems But Creating Others

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD32,394m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Disco, Ibiden, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Fast Retailing, Lasertec, Mitsui Mining &amp; Smelting, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Toyota Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD32,394m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Disco, Ibiden, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Fast Retailing, Lasertec, Mitsui Mining &amp; Smelting, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Toyota Motor.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 5th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Disco, Ibiden, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

The whitelist lifting means that Japan is now able to export restrict about 1,200 materials/products to Korea. It is expected that Japan will unveil more details of the next measures on Aug 8. Until then, it's only a guessing game. Even after Aug 8, it is very possible that we won't have any clearer visual on the situation. Probably, this is what the Japanese government wants: creating uncertainties one after another. Nonetheless, we are not short of local speculations about which specific products or materials to be export restricted in the next round. Here are the 4 strong candidates being speculated by local media and industry experts.<ol>
<li>Silicon wafer</li>
<li>Shadow mask (FMM: fine metal mask)</li>
<li>Image sensor</li>
<li>Li-ion battery separator</li>
</ol>

The whitelist lifting means that Japan is now able to export restrict about 1,200 materials/products to Korea. It is expected that Japan will unveil more details of the next measures on Aug 8. Until then, it's only a guessing game. Even after Aug 8, it is very possible that we won't have any clearer visual on the situation. Probably, this is what the Japanese government wants: creating uncertainties one after another. Nonetheless, we are not short of local speculations about which specific products or materials to be export restricted in the next round. Here are the 4 strong candidates being speculated by local media and industry experts.
Silicon wafer
Shadow mask (FMM: fine metal mask)
Image sensor
Li-ion battery separator


Japan's Second Round of Export Restrictions Against Korea: 4 Candidate Products

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 29th April - Mit.Chem, TKC, Keyence, ZOZO, Shimano. Or.Land

29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements. The...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 28th January - 6755, 4603, 2413, 4684

28TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 40 results and 14 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the larger cap companies, five saw...

Campbell Gunn

Silicon Wafers Q3 2019. LTAs & Joint Investments Are Fixing Some Problems But Creating Others

Long Term Agreements (LTAs) signed as silicon wafer shortages worsened back in late 2017 have thus far helped wafer manufacturers survive the worst...

William Keating

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 5th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Disco, Ibiden, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Ibiden...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan's Second Round of Export Restrictions Against Korea: 4 Candidate Products

The whitelist lifting means that Japan is now able to export restrict about 1,200 materials/products to Korea. It is expected that Japan will...

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)