Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This past week, activist Murakami-san's City Index Eleventh announced that the companies which jointly report now own 20.3%, which translates to 23.5% of voting rights. Average in-price?  ¥2,928/share.</li>
<li>The 2030 Plan from April saw 8% ROE by 2030, 6% by 2026. They've since bought back 11% of shares out. Better, but 1/4 of market cap is net cash+securities.</li>
<li>If one assumes they spend the net cash+securities to buy back stock 10% higher than here, pro-forma PBR is &lt;0.6x. ROE would be 7+%. There's room to run here, still. </li>
</ul>


This past week, activist Murakami-san's City Index Eleventh announced that the companies which jointly report now own 20.3%, which translates to 23.5% of voting rights. Average in-price?  ¥2,928/share.
The 2030 Plan from April saw 8% ROE by 2030, 6% by 2026. They've since bought back 11% of shares out. Better, but 1/4 of market cap is net cash+securities.
If one assumes they spend the net cash+securities to buy back stock 10% higher than here, pro-forma PBR is &lt;0.6x. ROE would be 7+%. There's room to run here, still. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Revenue rose JPY5.0bn (+9.6% YoY) due to higher revenue at Special Purpose Truck and Parking Systems businesses.</li><li>Operating profit increased JPY1.2bn (+189.2% YoY) mainly due to higher profit at Special Purpose Truck and Parking Systems businesses.</li><li>The company did not revise its full-year outlook for revenue and profit at the time of the Q1 earnings announcement.</li></ul>

Revenue rose JPY5.0bn (+9.6% YoY) due to higher revenue at Special Purpose Truck and Parking Systems businesses.Operating profit increased JPY1.2bn (+189.2% YoY) mainly due to higher profit at Special Purpose Truck and Parking Systems businesses.The company did not revise its full-year outlook for revenue and profit at the time of the Q1 earnings announcement.

Shinmaywa Industries (7224 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyokuto-kaihatsu-kogyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14390:1" rel="noopener">Kyokuto Kaihatsu Kogyo Co (7226 JP)</a> has always been cash-rich. Recently there are better noises. Sold real estate. New Mid-Term Plan. Raised the payout ratio to 50%. Slowly selling crossholdings.</li>
<li>But it isn't fast enough, and activist Strategic Capital this spring announced a flurry of AGM agenda items to extract value for shareholders. </li>
<li>The company today announced a buyback - additive, but there is a lot to look at here. Shareholder structure is key. And forward cash-flows tell you more buybacks could come.</li>
</ul>



Kyokuto Kaihatsu Kogyo Co (7226 JP) has always been cash-rich. Recently there are better noises. Sold real estate. New Mid-Term Plan. Raised the payout ratio to 50%. Slowly selling crossholdings.
But it isn't fast enough, and activist Strategic Capital this spring announced a flurry of AGM agenda items to extract value for shareholders. 
The company today announced a buyback - additive, but there is a lot to look at here. Shareholder structure is key. And forward cash-flows tell you more buybacks could come.


Kyokuto Kaihatsu (7226 JP) Buyback - It's Kinda Big, But There May Be More Behind

Kyokuto Kaihatsu Kogyo Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyokuto-kaihatsu-kogyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14390:1" rel="noopener">Kyokuto Kaihatsu Kogyo Co (7226 JP)</a> is, and has been for a a couple of decades, a value-stock player's dream. This company makes garbage trucks, dump trucks, concrete mixer trucks, sprinkler trucks, and truck parts such as lifters, etc.  They also make multi-story metal parking frames which can be sited easily on empty lots for those who want to use land but not redevelop.
The company has been cash-rich and asset-rich for ages - sometimes more so, sometimes less so - and has had hidden assets to boot. 
The stock tends to "range-trade" around a range of PBR, dipping when earnings dip and rising as people get excited about trucks. But despite being a stock which some might call a value-trap, it has done pretty well over the years. Sometimes it gets REALLY cheap. 
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<h3>The NEW News</h3>
On March 30, the company announced the sale of one of its "hidden assets" with the contract signed today and the close expected in the fiscal year which starts April 1. 
It is worth looking at this company just to see what else it might spit out.

Kyokuto Kaihatsu Kogyo Co (7226 JP) is, and has been for a a couple of decades, a value-stock player's dream. This company makes garbage trucks, dump trucks, concrete mixer trucks, sprinkler trucks, and truck parts such as lifters, etc.  They also make multi-story metal parking frames which can be sited easily on empty lots for those who want to use land but not redevelop.
The company has been cash-rich and asset-rich for ages - sometimes more so, sometimes less so - and has had hidden assets to boot. 
The stock tends to "range-trade" around a range of PBR, dipping when earnings dip and rising as people get excited about trucks. But despite being a stock which some might call a value-trap, it has done pretty well over the years. Sometimes it gets REALLY cheap. 



The NEW News
On March 30, the company announced the sale of one of its "hidden assets" with the contract signed today and the close expected in the fiscal year which starts April 1. 
It is worth looking at this company just to see what else it might spit out. 

Japan Value:  Kyokuto Kaihatsu (7226) To Log BIG Special Profit - Governance Activism Target

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/342/original/2020-03-11_11-02-32.png?1583892183" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122342"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/590/original/2020-03-12_07-42-03.png?1583966536" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122590"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>CUMULATIVE CASH FLOWS - In this third and final of our series on Japanese companies that might be compromised as the Covid-19 recession unfolds,  we shall look at Cumulative Cash Flows. Our cash flow model is derived from the disclosed Balance Sheets and Statements of Comprehensive Income and balances to zero for every company for every comparable period. Variations in disclosure between the audited annual yuho and unaudited quarterly kessan tanshin reports, notably when the company is reporting under the weaker IFRS standard can result in unavoidable quarter-to-quarter variations. Consequently, our analysis will focus on year-on-year changes as of the most recent quarterly disclosure irrespective of fiscal year-end.  Our review will cover six principal cash flow metrics:-<ul>
<li>
Operating Cash Flow - Operating Cash Flow comprises all cash flow items relating to transactions with customers and suppliers except inventory cash flows.</li>
<li>
Investing Cash Flow - Investing Cash Flow comprises cash flow to or from Fixed Assets and Inventories. Unlike GAAP Cash Flows Statements, It does not include investments in financial assets.</li>
<li>
Inventory Cash Flow - A sub-set of Investing Cash Flow, inventory Cash Flow is the change in Inventory on the Balance Sheet. </li>
<li>
Free Cash Flow - Free Cash Flow the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow.</li>
<li>
Financing Cash Flow - Financing Cash Flow comprises Debt &amp; Lease Liabilities, Investments and the taxation that is allocated to Financing Cash Flow. Debt &amp; Lease Liabilities includes changes in Short and Long-Term Debt and Lease Liabilities and Interest and Bond Issuance Expenses.' Investments' includes Interest &amp; Dividend Income, Purchases and Sales of Securities, Loans, Gains and Losses on Marketable Securities and Equity Earnings.</li>
<li>Change in Cash - Change in Cash is the sum of Free Cash Flow, Financing Cash Flow and Shareholder Cash Flow after including Minorities &amp; Adjustments. </li>
</ul>EXCLUDED - Four companies have been excluded from our review as they have substantial financial subsidiaries - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a> which distort their balance sheets. We have also excluded companies with a current market cap below ¥50b, although some exceptions have been made for abnormally large movements, such as those in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-display-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8280:1" rel="noopener">Japan Display (6740 JP).</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>-  As an example of our analysis, Toshiba has seen the largest reduction in Cash as a percentage of market value over the last twelve months of any large-cap Japanese company. Toshiba's cash balance has declined by ¥1.4 trillion since peaking in 2019-Q2 - 114% of the current market cap. 70% of the cash generated between 2018-Q4 and 2019-Q2 has been allocated to share repurchases, dividends and cash reduction. The company's net cash remains at a healthy 51% of market value and 43% of Shareholders' Equity; however, Cumulative Operating Cash Flow will fall below zero in the current quarter. There are few additional reductions in Fixed Assets and Inventories that can be sustained without irreparable damage. The logic of buying back shares in an entity that has negative residual returns is not clear to us. Despite the potential for a TOPIX re-inclusion 'bounce', fundamentally the stock should be avoided.<div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL Section below, we shall look at the top (or bottom) thirty large-cap companies on each of the metric above scaled by market capitalisation. </div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsCUMULATIVE CASH FLOWS - In this third and final of our series on Japanese companies that might be compromised as the Covid-19 recession unfolds,  we shall look at Cumulative Cash Flows. Our cash flow model is derived from the disclosed Balance Sheets and Statements of Comprehensive Income and balances to zero for every company for every comparable period. Variations in disclosure between the audited annual yuho and unaudited quarterly kessan tanshin reports, notably when the company is reporting under the weaker IFRS standard can result in unavoidable quarter-to-quarter variations. Consequently, our analysis will focus on year-on-year changes as of the most recent quarterly disclosure irrespective of fiscal year-end.  Our review will cover six principal cash flow metrics:-

Operating Cash Flow - Operating Cash Flow comprises all cash flow items relating to transactions with customers and suppliers except inventory cash flows.

Investing Cash Flow - Investing Cash Flow comprises cash flow to or from Fixed Assets and Inventories. Unlike GAAP Cash Flows Statements, It does not include investments in financial assets.

Inventory Cash Flow - A sub-set of Investing Cash Flow, inventory Cash Flow is the change in Inventory on the Balance Sheet. 

Free Cash Flow - Free Cash Flow the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow.

Financing Cash Flow - Financing Cash Flow comprises Debt &amp; Lease Liabilities, Investments and the taxation that is allocated to Financing Cash Flow. Debt &amp; Lease Liabilities includes changes in Short and Long-Term Debt and Lease Liabilities and Interest and Bond Issuance Expenses.' Investments' includes Interest &amp; Dividend Income, Purchases and Sales of Securities, Loans, Gains and Losses on Marketable Securities and Equity Earnings.
Change in Cash - Change in Cash is the sum of Free Cash Flow, Financing Cash Flow and Shareholder Cash Flow after including Minorities &amp; Adjustments. 
EXCLUDED - Four companies have been excluded from our review as they have substantial financial subsidiaries - Z Holdings (4689 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP), Sony (6758 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP) which distort their balance sheets. We have also excluded companies with a current market cap below ¥50b, although some exceptions have been made for abnormally large movements, such as those in Japan Display (6740 JP).Toshiba (6502 JP)-  As an example of our analysis, Toshiba has seen the largest reduction in Cash as a percentage of market value over the last twelve months of any large-cap Japanese company. Toshiba's cash balance has declined by ¥1.4 trillion since peaking in 2019-Q2 - 114% of the current market cap. 70% of the cash generated between 2018-Q4 and 2019-Q2 has been allocated to share repurchases, dividends and cash reduction. The company's net cash remains at a healthy 51% of market value and 43% of Shareholders' Equity; however, Cumulative Operating Cash Flow will fall below zero in the current quarter. There are few additional reductions in Fixed Assets and Inventories that can be sustained without irreparable damage. The logic of buying back shares in an entity that has negative residual returns is not clear to us. Despite the potential for a TOPIX re-inclusion 'bounce', fundamentally the stock should be avoided.In the DETAIL Section below, we shall look at the top (or bottom) thirty large-cap companies on each of the metric above scaled by market capitalisation. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who’s Swimming Naked? > Part 3: Cumulative Cash Flow

Japan

ShinMaywa Industries, Ltd. manufactures special duty vehicles such as dump trucks and cranes.  The Company also produces aircraft parts, industrial machinery, sky-parking systems, and environmental systems such as underwater kitchen refuse decomposers.

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Shinmaywa Industries (7224 JP)

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

Muirakami-san continues to accumulate Exedy. Now at 23.5%. Remaining overhang from the 36+% offering is 2%. Earnings are in a week. Excess capital...

Travis Lundy