Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> ended 2023 on a mixed note. Both revenue and business profit were ahead of guidance. However, operating and net profits missed guidance, dragged by impairment loss.</li>
<li>Four global pharmaceutical products as well as the nutraceuticals business led the business performance. Even after excluding the impact of foreign exchange, the business remained above plan.</li>
<li>The company has guided for 6% YoY growth in 2024 revenue and business profit to ¥2,140B and ¥330B, respectively. 2024 net profit is expected to jump 106% YoY to ¥250B.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) ended 2023 on a mixed note. Both revenue and business profit were ahead of guidance. However, operating and net profits missed guidance, dragged by impairment loss.
Four global pharmaceutical products as well as the nutraceuticals business led the business performance. Even after excluding the impact of foreign exchange, the business remained above plan.
The company has guided for 6% YoY growth in 2024 revenue and business profit to ¥2,140B and ¥330B, respectively. 2024 net profit is expected to jump 106% YoY to ¥250B.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Impairment Charges Bite 2023 Profit; 2024 Guidance Initiated

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyowa-kirin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18055:1" rel="noopener">Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP)</a> has announced partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgebio-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28746:1" rel="noopener">Bridgebio Pharma Inc (BBIO US)</a> for an exclusive license on infigratinib for achondroplasia, hypochondroplasia, and other skeletal dysplasias in Japan.</li>
<li>This month, Kyowa Kirin has enrolled first patient in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating tivozanib eye drops (KHK4951) in patients with diabetic macular edema (DME).</li>
<li>The company’s top selling drug Crysvita is growing steadily since launch. Crysvita led to better-than-expected result in 2023. However, higher R&amp;D expenses will negatively impact 2024 operating profit.</li>
</ul>



Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP) has announced partnership with Bridgebio Pharma Inc (BBIO US) for an exclusive license on infigratinib for achondroplasia, hypochondroplasia, and other skeletal dysplasias in Japan.
This month, Kyowa Kirin has enrolled first patient in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating tivozanib eye drops (KHK4951) in patients with diabetic macular edema (DME).
The company’s top selling drug Crysvita is growing steadily since launch. Crysvita led to better-than-expected result in 2023. However, higher R&amp;D expenses will negatively impact 2024 operating profit.


Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Recent Portfolio Strengthening Initiatives to Accelerate Long-Term Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> shares corrected more than 60% from highs over the disappointment from Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi. During H1FY24, Leqembi reported revenue of just ¥400M ($3M).</li>
<li>With approximately 40% revenue contribution, anti-cancer drug Lenvima is the top selling drug of Eisai. In the U.S., Lenvima patent protection will start to expire in US in October 2025.</li>
<li>In December, Eisai has submitted a marketing authorization application in Japan for tasurgratinib for biliary tract cancer. If approved, tasurgratinob will be a late entrant in a crowded market.</li>
</ul>



Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) shares corrected more than 60% from highs over the disappointment from Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi. During H1FY24, Leqembi reported revenue of just ¥400M ($3M).
With approximately 40% revenue contribution, anti-cancer drug Lenvima is the top selling drug of Eisai. In the U.S., Lenvima patent protection will start to expire in US in October 2025.
In December, Eisai has submitted a marketing authorization application in Japan for tasurgratinib for biliary tract cancer. If approved, tasurgratinob will be a late entrant in a crowded market.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Why Performance Reversal Is Not Expected in Near-Term

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A new COVID variant JN.1 is spreading fast. WHO has classified JN.1 as “variant of interest” due to its “rapidly increasing spread.” Thus far, JN.1 has not caused severe infection.</li>
<li>Symptoms of JN.1 may not be as mild as Omicron variants. If JN.1 becomes deadlier and more infectious, diagnostics and vaccine players are going to be benefitted primarily.</li>
<li>In this insight we have discussed two Asian vaccine companies and one diagnostic company, which should be kept in the watchlist.</li>
</ul>


A new COVID variant JN.1 is spreading fast. WHO has classified JN.1 as “variant of interest” due to its “rapidly increasing spread.” Thus far, JN.1 has not caused severe infection.
Symptoms of JN.1 may not be as mild as Omicron variants. If JN.1 becomes deadlier and more infectious, diagnostics and vaccine players are going to be benefitted primarily.
In this insight we have discussed two Asian vaccine companies and one diagnostic company, which should be kept in the watchlist.


New COVID Variant Is Emerging; Testing and Vaccine Euphoria May Be Back; Keep Your Watchlist Ready

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan Catalyst’s <a href="https://www.japancatalyst.com/pdf/JCI_TAISHO_20231201_eng.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> supports the idea of a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.</li>
<li>The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.</li>
<li>While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
</ul>


Japan Catalyst’s press release supports the idea of a Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.
The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.
While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

Japan

Shionogi & Company Ltd., is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops prescription & over-the-counter drugs and diagnostics.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP)

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Impairment Charges Bite 2023 Profit; 2024 Guidance Initiated

Otsuka missed 2023 operating and net profit targets due to impairment loss. 6% YoY growth is expected for 2024 revenue and business profit. Net...

Tina Banerjee

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Recent Portfolio Strengthening Initiatives to Accelerate Long-Term Growth

Kyowa Kirin partners with Bridgebio for infigratinib in Japan and enrolls first patient in Phase 2 trial for tivozanib eye drop for DME. Higher...

Tina Banerjee

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Why Performance Reversal Is Not Expected in Near-Term

Eisai shares are on downtrend due to disappointment with Alzheimer's drug. Top-selling drug Lenvima faces patent expiration in 2025. Eisai seeks...

Tina Banerjee

New COVID Variant Is Emerging; Testing and Vaccine Euphoria May Be Back; Keep Your Watchlist Ready

A new COVID variant, JN.1, is spreading rapidly and has been classified as a "variant of interest" by WHO. If it becomes deadlier, vaccine and...

Tina Banerjee

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5%...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Impairment Charges Bite 2023 Profit; 2024 Guidance Initiated

​Otsuka missed 2023 operating and net profit targets due to impairment loss. 6% YoY growth is expected for 2024 revenue and business profit. Net...

Tina Banerjee

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Recent Portfolio Strengthening Initiatives to Accelerate Long-Term Growth

​Kyowa Kirin partners with Bridgebio for infigratinib in Japan and enrolls first patient in Phase 2 trial for tivozanib eye drop for DME. Higher...

Tina Banerjee

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Why Performance Reversal Is Not Expected in Near-Term

​Eisai shares are on downtrend due to disappointment with Alzheimer's drug. Top-selling drug Lenvima faces patent expiration in 2025. Eisai seeks...

Tina Banerjee

New COVID Variant Is Emerging; Testing and Vaccine Euphoria May Be Back; Keep Your Watchlist Ready

​A new COVID variant, JN.1, is spreading rapidly and has been classified as a "variant of interest" by WHO. If it becomes deadlier, vaccine and...

Tina Banerjee

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5%...

Arun George

Otsuka missed 2023 operating and net profit targets due to impairment loss. 6% YoY growth is expected for 2024 revenue and business profit. Net...

Kyowa Kirin partners with Bridgebio for infigratinib in Japan and enrolls first patient in Phase 2 trial for tivozanib eye drop for DME. Higher...

Eisai shares are on downtrend due to disappointment with Alzheimer's drug. Top-selling drug Lenvima faces patent expiration in 2025. Eisai seeks...

A new COVID variant, JN.1, is spreading rapidly and has been classified as a "variant of interest" by WHO. If it becomes deadlier, vaccine and...