Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> revenue was up 14% YoY to ¥453.3B in FY26 on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 34% YoY to ¥337.9B).</li>
<li>Orgovyx (revenue jumped 87% YoY to ¥155B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 46% to ¥96B) improved market share.</li>
<li>Company expects the FY27 revenue to be ¥540B, up 19% YoY. Core operating profit has been guided to be at ¥91B (down 14% YoY).</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) revenue was up 14% YoY to ¥453.3B in FY26 on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 34% YoY to ¥337.9B).
Orgovyx (revenue jumped 87% YoY to ¥155B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 46% to ¥96B) improved market share.
Company expects the FY27 revenue to be ¥540B, up 19% YoY. Core operating profit has been guided to be at ¥91B (down 14% YoY).


Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): America Drives FY26, To Be Continued in FY27, Enzomenib in Pivotal Phase

Asia Healthcare Analyst, Pathology Associates Limited

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Asia Healthcare Analyst

Pathology Associates Limited

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19535" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1">Shionogi &amp; Co Ltd (4507 JP)</a> - May 09, 2018<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>FY16A</td>
<td>FY17E Preview</td>
<td>% ∆ y-o-y</td>
<td>FY17 CE*</td>
<td>% ∆ y-o-y</td>
<td>Notes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sales  (¥b)</td>
<td>338.9</td>
<td>347.0</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>345.0</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>HIV franchise royalty to drive topline</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GPM (%)</td>
<td>77.0%</td>
<td>78.7%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>77.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>Earnings in the form of royalty improve gross margins</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core EBIT (¥b)</td>
<td>111.5</td>
<td>117.6</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Reported EBIT</td>
<td>108.2</td>
<td>114.3</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>113.5</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core EPS** (¥)</td>
<td>263.4</td>
<td>307.8</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Reported EPS </td>
<td>255.9</td>
<td>297.8</td>
<td>16.4%</td>
<td>317.0</td>
<td>23.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>FY18e Potential Guidance<ul><li>HIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its products…</li></ul>

Shionogi &amp; Co Ltd (4507 JP) - May 09, 2018

FY16A
FY17E   Preview
% ∆  y-o-y
FY17  CE*
% ∆  y-o-y
Notes


Sales  (¥b)
338.9
347.0
2.4%
345.0
1.8%
HIV franchise royalty to drive topline


GPM (%)
77.0%
78.7%
2.2%
77.8%
1.0%
Earnings in the form of royalty improve gross margins


Core EBIT (¥b)
111.5
117.6
5.5%
N.A.
 


Reported EBIT
108.2
114.3
5.7%
113.5
4.9%


Core EPS** (¥)
263.4
307.8
16.9%
N.A.
 


Reported EPS 
255.9
297.8
16.4%
317.0
23.9%

FY18e Potential GuidanceHIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its products…

Japan Pharmaceuticals: FY17e Earnings Preview (II)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6634" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1">Nippon Shinyaku Co Ltd (4516 JP)</a> @ ¥ 8,480 (up ~18% week-to-date) vs. our TP ¥ 8,600. We recommend booking profit at current levels.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1">Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP)</a> @ @ ¥ 4,857 implies an attractive dividend yield of ~3.7. We continue with our OW rating on the stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19535" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1">Shionogi &amp; Co Ltd (4507 JP)</a>@ ¥ 5,497 (down ~10% week to date) implies ~17x our FY19e revised core EPS of ¥ 318 / share. We maintain our OW rating on the stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1935" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)</a> @ ¥ 2,016 (up 20%…</li>
</ul>



Nippon Shinyaku Co Ltd (4516 JP) @ ¥ 8,480 (up ~18% week-to-date) vs. our TP ¥ 8,600. We recommend booking profit at current levels.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP) @ @ ¥ 4,857 implies an attractive dividend yield of ~3.7. We continue with our OW rating on the stock.

Shionogi &amp; Co Ltd (4507 JP)@ ¥ 5,497 (down ~10% week to date) implies ~17x our FY19e revised core EPS of ¥ 318 / share. We maintain our OW rating on the stock.

Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP) @ ¥ 2,016 (up 20%…


Japan Pharmaceuticals: The Week that Was…

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1">Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP)</a> @ ¥ 4,911/ share (down 24% YTD) implies ~17x (~30% discount to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥ 294 / share and industry leading dividend yield of 3.7%. We maintain OW rating on the stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1935" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)</a> @ ¥ 1,914 / share (up 15% YTD) implies ~78x (~200% premium to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥ 25 / share (or -61% FY17-19e core EPS CAGR). We maintain UW rating on the stock</li>
<li>After a steep weekly decline of 16%…</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP) @ ¥ 4,911/ share (down 24% YTD) implies ~17x (~30% discount to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥ 294 / share and industry leading dividend yield of 3.7%. We maintain OW rating on the stock.

Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP) @ ¥ 1,914 / share (up 15% YTD) implies ~78x (~200% premium to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥ 25 / share (or -61% FY17-19e core EPS CAGR). We maintain UW rating on the stock
After a steep weekly decline of 16%…


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyowa-kirin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18055:1" rel="noopener">Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP)</a> posted 13% revenue growth in 1Q26. Core operating margin expands 620bps to 16.9% on lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expense.</li>
<li>Company partially revised 2026 guidance. Core operating profit is expected to be ¥130B (vs previous ¥100B). Company now expects a higher core profit of ¥103B (vs previous ¥80B).</li>
<li>Kyowa Kirin needs new drugs to augment growth. It remains highly dependant on Crysvita. Ziftomenib, infigratinib will drive revenue numbers in medium to long term.</li>
</ul>



Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP) posted 13% revenue growth in 1Q26. Core operating margin expands 620bps to 16.9% on lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expense.
Company partially revised 2026 guidance. Core operating profit is expected to be ¥130B (vs previous ¥100B). Company now expects a higher core profit of ¥103B (vs previous ¥80B).
Kyowa Kirin needs new drugs to augment growth. It remains highly dependant on Crysvita. Ziftomenib, infigratinib will drive revenue numbers in medium to long term.


Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): 1Q26 Revenue Grow on EMEA & Out-Licensing, Guidance Partially Revised

Japan

Shionogi & Company Ltd., is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops prescription & over-the-counter drugs and diagnostics.

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Shionogi & Co (4507 JP)

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): America Drives FY26, To Be Continued in FY27, Enzomenib in Pivotal Phase

Sumitomo Pharma sees strong revenue growth in FY26 driven by North America. Momentum to continue in FY27. Profits to see some downside on R&D cost...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Pharmaceuticals: FY17e Earnings Preview (II)

Shionogi & Co Ltd (4507 JP) - May 09, 2018FY18e Potential GuidanceHIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Japan Pharmaceuticals: The Week that Was…

Nippon Shinyaku Co Ltd (4516 JP) @ ¥ 8,480 (up ~18% week-to-date) vs. our TP ¥ 8,600. We recommend booking profit at current levels. Takeda...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Japan Pharmaceuticals: The Week that Was…

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP) @ ¥ 4,911/ share (down 24% YTD) implies ~17x (~30% discount to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): 1Q26 Revenue Grow on EMEA & Out-Licensing, Guidance Partially Revised

Kyowa Kirin sees strong revenue growth in 1Q26, with improved margins and revised profit guidance for 2026. Company looks to new drugs for future...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): America Drives FY26, To Be Continued in FY27, Enzomenib in Pivotal Phase

​Sumitomo Pharma sees strong revenue growth in FY26 driven by North America. Momentum to continue in FY27. Profits to see some downside on R&D cost...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Pharmaceuticals: FY17e Earnings Preview (II)

Shionogi & Co Ltd (4507 JP) - May 09, 2018FY18e Potential GuidanceHIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Japan Pharmaceuticals: The Week that Was…

Nippon Shinyaku Co Ltd (4516 JP) @ ¥ 8,480 (up ~18% week-to-date) vs. our TP ¥ 8,600. We recommend booking profit at current levels. Takeda...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Japan Pharmaceuticals: The Week that Was…

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP) @ ¥ 4,911/ share (down 24% YTD) implies ~17x (~30% discount to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): 1Q26 Revenue Grow on EMEA & Out-Licensing, Guidance Partially Revised

​Kyowa Kirin sees strong revenue growth in 1Q26, with improved margins and revised profit guidance for 2026. Company looks to new drugs for future...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma sees strong revenue growth in FY26 driven by North America. Momentum to continue in FY27. Profits to see some downside on R&D cost...

Kyowa Kirin sees strong revenue growth in 1Q26, with improved margins and revised profit guidance for 2026. Company looks to new drugs for future...