Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/torii-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3253:1" rel="noopener">Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP)</a> announced an agreed deal whereby Shionogi would launch a Tender Offer to take over Torii.</li>
<li>Torii Pharmaceutical shares rallied sharply after earnings so the actual TOB Price of ¥6,350/share is not a particularly high premium vs undisturbed. Valuation transparency is limited. Synergies are not included.</li>
<li>But the price is an ATH, the company is heavily de-levered (so a 23% premium to undisturbed is decent) and the minimum threshold is not high.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) and Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP) announced an agreed deal whereby Shionogi would launch a Tender Offer to take over Torii.
Torii Pharmaceutical shares rallied sharply after earnings so the actual TOB Price of ¥6,350/share is not a particularly high premium vs undisturbed. Valuation transparency is limited. Synergies are not included.
But the price is an ATH, the company is heavily de-levered (so a 23% premium to undisturbed is decent) and the minimum threshold is not high.


[JAPAN M&A] Shionogi (4507) Bids for Torii Pharma (4551) - Split Price Deal on Weak Transparency

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jcr-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20126:1" rel="noopener">Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)</a> revenue dropped 23% to ¥26B during 9MFY25, dragged by lower contractual payments. With higher R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses, the company reported operating loss of ¥754M.</li>
<li>FY25 Guidance has been revised downwards with revised sales now stands at ¥39B. While product sales remain largely on track, income from contractual payment was revised downward.</li>
<li>The heavy dependence on one major product and no major product launch lined up anytime soon poses as a negative on the company’s prospects in near future.</li>
</ul>



Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP) revenue dropped 23% to ¥26B during 9MFY25, dragged by lower contractual payments. With higher R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses, the company reported operating loss of ¥754M.
FY25 Guidance has been revised downwards with revised sales now stands at ¥39B. While product sales remain largely on track, income from contractual payment was revised downward.
The heavy dependence on one major product and no major product launch lined up anytime soon poses as a negative on the company’s prospects in near future.


JCR Pharmaceutical (4552 JP): Sluggish 9MFY25 Performance, Guidance Revised Downward

<ul>
<li>In 9MFY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> reported 9% YoY growth in revenue, driven by 3Ls. Operating profit rose 48% YoY and net profit climbed 56% YoY to ¥45.5B.</li>
<li>Eisai kept its FY25 total revenue guidance unchanged, implying a weaker Q4FY25 with a probable loss on the cards.</li>
<li>Lenvima growth stabilizes on indication expansion, Leqembi awaiting approvals and untangling safety concerns in a bid to reach its full market potential.</li>
</ul>


In 9MFY25, Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) reported 9% YoY growth in revenue, driven by 3Ls. Operating profit rose 48% YoY and net profit climbed 56% YoY to ¥45.5B.
Eisai kept its FY25 total revenue guidance unchanged, implying a weaker Q4FY25 with a probable loss on the cards.
Lenvima growth stabilizes on indication expansion, Leqembi awaiting approvals and untangling safety concerns in a bid to reach its full market potential.


Eisai (4523 JP): 3L Drive 9MFY25 Result; FY25 Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi at an Inflection Point

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> reported 1% YoY revenue decline during 9MFY25 as domestic sales of prescription drugs decreased 38% YoY.</li>
<li>Quviviq, a DORA treatment for insomnia was launched in December 2024. Shionogi acquired exclusive distribution rights for Quviviq in Japan and it is expected to be a significant revenue contributor.</li>
<li>Shionogi submitted NDA in Japan for zuranolone, a treatment in development for major depressive disorder (MDD). Approval is expected in H1FY26.</li>
</ul>



Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) reported 1% YoY revenue decline during 9MFY25 as domestic sales of prescription drugs decreased 38% YoY.
Quviviq, a DORA treatment for insomnia was launched in December 2024. Shionogi acquired exclusive distribution rights for Quviviq in Japan and it is expected to be a significant revenue contributor.
Shionogi submitted NDA in Japan for zuranolone, a treatment in development for major depressive disorder (MDD). Approval is expected in H1FY26.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): 9MFY25 Revenue Flat; Insomnia Drug Launched; NDA Submission in Japan

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> reported 25% YoY revenue growth during 9MFY25, driven by North America.</li>
<li>Restructuring and streamlining efforts help curb expenses and post a core operating profit of ¥21B during 9MFY25 compared to an operating loss of ¥96B in same period last year.</li>
<li>Sumitomo is now expecting FY25 revenue to be ¥381B, up by ¥43B from the previous forecast and a core net profit of ¥16B.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) reported 25% YoY revenue growth during 9MFY25, driven by North America.
Restructuring and streamlining efforts help curb expenses and post a core operating profit of ¥21B during 9MFY25 compared to an operating loss of ¥96B in same period last year.
Sumitomo is now expecting FY25 revenue to be ¥381B, up by ¥43B from the previous forecast and a core net profit of ¥16B.


Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Robust 9MFY25 Revenues; Back in Black; Guidance Revised

Japan

Shionogi & Company Ltd., is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops prescription & over-the-counter drugs and diagnostics.

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Shionogi & Co (4507 JP)

[JAPAN M&A] Shionogi (4507) Bids for Torii Pharma (4551) - Split Price Deal on Weak Transparency

Today after the close, Shionogi & Co announced a TOB to take over Torii Pharma (a sub of Japan Tobacco). The deal seems light, and structure makes...

Travis Lundy

JCR Pharmaceutical (4552 JP): Sluggish 9MFY25 Performance, Guidance Revised Downward

JCR has again cut FY25 revenue guidance by 15%, as an expected licensing agreement may not be finalized this fiscal. With this, FY25 revenue is...

Tina Banerjee

Eisai (4523 JP): 3L Drive 9MFY25 Result; FY25 Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi at an Inflection Point

Eisai sees strong revenue and profit growth in 9MFY25, but Q4FY25 outlook seems weaker with potential loss. Focus will be on addressing safety...

Tina Banerjee