Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paint-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7387:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP)</a> is a branded decorative paint player.  China made up nearly 40% of the operating profit of the company. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saizeriya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14362:1" rel="noopener">Saizeriya (7581 JP)</a> is a Japanese restaurant chain of fast casual Italian food, with currently the majority of operating profit and growth coming from China.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> is a Japanese beauty company that relies heavily on China. </li>
</ul>



Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP) is a branded decorative paint player.  China made up nearly 40% of the operating profit of the company. 

Saizeriya (7581 JP) is a Japanese restaurant chain of fast casual Italian food, with currently the majority of operating profit and growth coming from China.

Shiseido Company (4911 JP) is a Japanese beauty company that relies heavily on China. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement.</li>
<li>We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement.
We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up to our initial report on the APAC Luxury Industry where we were of the belief that small niches within the luxury sector could offer potential opportunities.</li>
<li>Below, we analyse the recent trends in luxury travel on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minor-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1" rel="noopener">Minor International (MINT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing signs of improvement. </li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up to our initial report on the APAC Luxury Industry where we were of the belief that small niches within the luxury sector could offer potential opportunities.
Below, we analyse the recent trends in luxury travel on Minor International (MINT TB), Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) and Shiseido Company (4911 JP).
While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing signs of improvement. 


APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Shiseido’s profit-first restructuring, including ¥25B cost cuts and SKU rationalization, lowers break-even levels, supporting operating margin recovery toward 7% by 2026 and 10% longer-term.</li>
<li>Strategic pivot toward prestige skincare strengthens pricing power and stability, positioning Shiseido to capitalize on Asia-Pacific demand while competitors face integration risks and category distractions.</li>
<li>Despite risks from China exposure, travel retail weakness, and intensified competition, successful execution could drive earnings recovery and valuation re-rating toward ¥4,000 fair value estimate.</li>
</ul>


Shiseido’s profit-first restructuring, including ¥25B cost cuts and SKU rationalization, lowers break-even levels, supporting operating margin recovery toward 7% by 2026 and 10% longer-term.
Strategic pivot toward prestige skincare strengthens pricing power and stability, positioning Shiseido to capitalize on Asia-Pacific demand while competitors face integration risks and category distractions.
Despite risks from China exposure, travel retail weakness, and intensified competition, successful execution could drive earnings recovery and valuation re-rating toward ¥4,000 fair value estimate.


Shiseido (4911) | Margin Recovery Driving Re-Rating Potential

<ul>
<li>Shiseido’s Q3 revenue rose 4.6% YoY to ¥224bn, marking its first growth in three quarters, though full-year sales guidance was cut 3%.</li>
<li>Profitability remained pressured by tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness; product margins fell 340bps YoY, but SG&amp;A improvements limited overall margin decline to 80bps.</li>
<li>Management maintained core OP profit guidance and continued executing structural reforms, achieving ¥21bn cost savings YTD, with deeper efficiency cuts planned through 2026.</li>
</ul>


Shiseido’s Q3 revenue rose 4.6% YoY to ¥224bn, marking its first growth in three quarters, though full-year sales guidance was cut 3%.
Profitability remained pressured by tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness; product margins fell 340bps YoY, but SG&amp;A improvements limited overall margin decline to 80bps.
Management maintained core OP profit guidance and continued executing structural reforms, achieving ¥21bn cost savings YTD, with deeper efficiency cuts planned through 2026.


Shiseido (4911) | Progress on Reforms, but Growth Still Elusive

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

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Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

China Consumer Plays Listed In Japan

In this insight, we look at three Japan listed China consumer plays, which I have written before. They are Nippon Paint, Saizeriya, and Shiseido.

Steve

Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Shiseido (4911) | Margin Recovery Driving Re-Rating Potential

Shiseido's profit-focused restructuring and pivot to prestige skincare could drive operating margin recovery and earnings growth, positioning the...

Mark Chadwick

Shiseido (4911) | Progress on Reforms, but Growth Still Elusive

Shiseido's Q3 revenue up 4.6% YoY, but full-year sales guidance cut 3% due to tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness. Cost savings and efficiency...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Consumer Plays Listed In Japan

In this insight, we look at three Japan listed China consumer plays, which I have written before. They are Nippon Paint, Saizeriya, and Shiseido.

Steve

Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices

While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Shiseido (4911) | Margin Recovery Driving Re-Rating Potential

​Shiseido's profit-focused restructuring and pivot to prestige skincare could drive operating margin recovery and earnings growth, positioning the...

Mark Chadwick

Shiseido (4911) | Progress on Reforms, but Growth Still Elusive

​Shiseido's Q3 revenue up 4.6% YoY, but full-year sales guidance cut 3% due to tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness. Cost savings and efficiency...

Mark Chadwick

Shiseido's profit-focused restructuring and pivot to prestige skincare could drive operating margin recovery and earnings growth, positioning the...

Shiseido's Q3 revenue up 4.6% YoY, but full-year sales guidance cut 3% due to tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness. Cost savings and efficiency...