Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIKKEI 225 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Materials.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIKKEI 225 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Materials.


NIKKEI 225 Index Earning Revision (Sep): Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global macro hurdles following “liberation day” have hit Japanese banks’ share prices hard; global recession risks are on the rise and BoJ monetary policy normalization is at best delayed</li>
<li>With investors betting on the safe haven of Japanese government bonds, the JGB yield curve has flattened since March-end which adds to the Japanese banks’ hurdles</li>
<li>Despite maintaining our constructive medium to long term view on Japanese banks, we expect challenges in the near-term and we would reduce long exposures to Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Shizuoka</li>
</ul>


Global macro hurdles following “liberation day” have hit Japanese banks’ share prices hard; global recession risks are on the rise and BoJ monetary policy normalization is at best delayed
With investors betting on the safe haven of Japanese government bonds, the JGB yield curve has flattened since March-end which adds to the Japanese banks’ hurdles
Despite maintaining our constructive medium to long term view on Japanese banks, we expect challenges in the near-term and we would reduce long exposures to Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Shizuoka


Japanese Big Cap Banks – Trump’s Trade War Headwinds

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.</li>
<li>Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.</li>
</ul>


We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.
Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.
Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.


Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The expectations for the mid-June BoJ monetary policy meeting are for a 25bps rate hike to 1.00%, given sustained wage growth and generally increasing inflation risks</li>
<li>Valuations are recovering from the Iran war lows, and bank returns are improving but we expect market turbulence going forward and we lock in some gains</li>
<li>We remove Shizuoka from the buy list, among our bigger caps universe, keeping Resona Holdings on the buy list along with Yokohama Financial and Kyoto Financial</li>
</ul>


The expectations for the mid-June BoJ monetary policy meeting are for a 25bps rate hike to 1.00%, given sustained wage growth and generally increasing inflation risks
Valuations are recovering from the Iran war lows, and bank returns are improving but we expect market turbulence going forward and we lock in some gains
We remove Shizuoka from the buy list, among our bigger caps universe, keeping Resona Holdings on the buy list along with Yokohama Financial and Kyoto Financial


Japanese Big Cap Banks – Taking Profits on Shizuoka

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A Nikkei article Friday morning suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shizuoka-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36610:1" rel="noopener">Shizuoka Financial Group (5831 JP)</a> would integrate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-nagoya-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6348:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Nagoya (8522 JP)</a> in 2028 putting it into the top 5 regionals in Japan.</li>
<li>This comes a day after DHFG (7327 JP) and Gunma Bank (8334 JP) announced terms of their integration, following a year of discussions. Both Shizugin (+6.5%) and NagoyaBk (+15.1%) popped.</li>
<li>Expect a merger ratio to come in a year, with the merger coming in two. It's a long slog of "Guess The Ratio". Not worth a bet here.</li>
</ul>


A Nikkei article Friday morning suggested that Shizuoka Financial Group (5831 JP) would integrate Bank Of Nagoya (8522 JP) in 2028 putting it into the top 5 regionals in Japan.
This comes a day after DHFG (7327 JP) and Gunma Bank (8334 JP) announced terms of their integration, following a year of discussions. Both Shizugin (+6.5%) and NagoyaBk (+15.1%) popped.
Expect a merger ratio to come in a year, with the merger coming in two. It's a long slog of "Guess The Ratio". Not worth a bet here.


[Japan M&A] Shizuoka FG (5831) And Nagoya Bank (8522) Talk 2028 Merger; Don't Guess The Ratio Here

Japan

Shizuoka Financial Group, Inc. offers banking services. The Company provides deposits, loans, fund management, domestic settlement, and other services. Shizuoka Financial Group provides its services throughout Japan.

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Shizuoka Financial Group (5831 JP)

NIKKEI 225 Index Earning Revision (Sep): Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION

We analyzed NIKKEI 225's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Advantest, Kioxia, Fujikura, Tokyo Electron, TDK, ARCHION, Nippon...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Trump’s Trade War Headwinds

Trade war means rising recession risks, delayed BoJ rate hike and flatter JGB yield curve; despite the banks' positive long-term outlook, reduce...

Victor Galliano

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Taking Profits on Shizuoka

Expecting a 25bps rate hike at June BoJ meeting, valuations recovering post-Iran war lows; we expect turbulent markets, so we remove Shizuoka from...

Victor Galliano

[Japan M&A] Shizuoka FG (5831) And Nagoya Bank (8522) Talk 2028 Merger; Don't Guess The Ratio Here

On Friday, Shizuoka FG and Bank of Nagoya announced talks towards an April 2028 merger. They both popped. BN more. They already have an Alliance....

Travis Lundy

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