Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. </li>
<li>Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.</li>
</ul>


We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. 
Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. 
Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.


Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following select Japanese bank visits, we reiterate our buys on Resona Holdings, Yokohama Financial and Shizuoka Financial</li>
<li>We are neutral on the Japanese digital banks, although Rakuten Bank is our preferred neutral of the three</li>
<li>The Iran conflict creates increased volatility in markets; although the timing may be in question, we believe that the BoJ remains on the “up escalator” for policy rates</li>
</ul>


Following select Japanese bank visits, we reiterate our buys on Resona Holdings, Yokohama Financial and Shizuoka Financial
We are neutral on the Japanese digital banks, although Rakuten Bank is our preferred neutral of the three
The Iran conflict creates increased volatility in markets; although the timing may be in question, we believe that the BoJ remains on the “up escalator” for policy rates


Japanese Banks – Update on Bigger Cap and Digital Banks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.</li>
<li>Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.</li>
<li>A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.</li>
</ul>


Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.
Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.
A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.


[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.</li>
<li>Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.</li>
<li>The forecast deletes have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a> on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.</li>
</ul>


There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.


Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Shizuoka Financial Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shizuoka’s has healthy gearing to rising interest rates and its ratio of equity holdings value to market cap is attractive; yet we feel that it is time to take profits</li>
<li>Shizuoka’s valuations are no longer compelling, with PE multiples and PEG ratios at the less attractive end relative to peers; it also has the highest LDR of the peer group</li>
<li>In addition, Shizuoka has relatively high unrealized losses on its JGB portfolio and these have grow QoQ to September-end 2025</li>
</ul>


Shizuoka’s has healthy gearing to rising interest rates and its ratio of equity holdings value to market cap is attractive; yet we feel that it is time to take profits
Shizuoka’s valuations are no longer compelling, with PE multiples and PEG ratios at the less attractive end relative to peers; it also has the highest LDR of the peer group
In addition, Shizuoka has relatively high unrealized losses on its JGB portfolio and these have grow QoQ to September-end 2025


Shizuoka Financial (5831 JP) – Sound 2QFY25 Results, but We Recommend Taking Profits

Japan

Shizuoka Financial Group, Inc. offers banking services. The Company provides deposits, loans, fund management, domestic settlement, and other services. Shizuoka Financial Group provides its services throughout Japan.

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Shizuoka Financial Group (5831 JP)

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese Banks – Update on Bigger Cap and Digital Banks

Reiterating buys on Resona, Yokohama and Shizuoka post selective bank visits, whilst being neutral on digital banks; amid Iran conflict...

Victor Galliano

[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Japan regional bank consolidation will continue. We may have a new candidate. I'd be long the small target in this case, assuming that value will out.

Travis Lundy

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese Banks – Update on Bigger Cap and Digital Banks

​Reiterating buys on Resona, Yokohama and Shizuoka post selective bank visits, whilst being neutral on digital banks; amid Iran conflict...

Victor Galliano

[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Japan regional bank consolidation will continue. We may have a new candidate. I'd be long the small target in this case, assuming that value will out.

Travis Lundy

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

Shizuoka Financial (5831 JP) – Sound 2QFY25 Results, but We Recommend Taking Profits

​Shizuoka's healthy gearing and high value of equity holdings are overshadowed by less compelling valuations, high LDR, and growing unrealized...

Victor Galliano

Reiterating buys on Resona, Yokohama and Shizuoka post selective bank visits, whilst being neutral on digital banks; amid Iran conflict...

Shizuoka's healthy gearing and high value of equity holdings are overshadowed by less compelling valuations, high LDR, and growing unrealized...