Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Korea has two visa policies for Chinese visitors to Korea – one for mainland Korea and one for Jeju island. Chinese visitors must get visa when visiting mainland Korea while visa is not required to visit Jeju island. We believe that the tremendous success of attracting Chinese visitors to Jeju island may also lead to relaxed visa policies for Chinese visiting mainland Korea. Timing of potential change of Chinese visa policy to Korea - Although it may not be discussed much openly, we think that there are increasing talks behind the doors to relax the visa policy for Chinese visitors to Korea (ex. 3 months no visa policy) in order to attract more Chinese visitors and help to attract foreign capital. In terms of time-frame, we believe it could over the next two years, especially as the incumbent Presidential regime is pro-FTA with China and open to attracting more Chinese capital. The potential change to existing visa policy such as 3 months no visa could be both ways (Chinese visitors to Korea and Korean visitors to China).

Korea has two visa policies for Chinese visitors to Korea – one for mainland Korea and one for Jeju island. Chinese visitors must get visa when visiting mainland Korea while visa is not required to visit Jeju island. We believe that the tremendous success of attracting Chinese visitors to Jeju island may also lead to relaxed visa policies for Chinese visiting mainland Korea. Timing of potential change of Chinese visa policy to Korea - Although it may not be discussed much openly, we think that there are increasing talks behind the doors to relax the visa policy for Chinese visitors to Korea (ex. 3 months no visa policy) in order to attract more Chinese visitors and help to attract foreign capital. In terms of time-frame, we believe it could over the next two years, especially as the incumbent Presidential regime is pro-FTA with China and open to attracting more Chinese capital. The potential change to existing visa policy such as 3 months no visa could be both ways (Chinese visitors to Korea and Korean visitors to China). 

Potential Change of Chinese Visa Policy to Korea

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Victory Giant Technology -A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 12 changes at the December rebalance with the Information Technology sector gaining 2 index spots and a smaller number of changes in the other sectors.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 2.7% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 69.8bn (US$9.8bn). There are 8 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> over the last 5 months while the forecast deletes have underperformed the index.</li>
</ul>


There could be 12 changes at the December rebalance with the Information Technology sector gaining 2 index spots and a smaller number of changes in the other sectors.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.7% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 69.8bn (US$9.8bn). There are 8 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds have outperformed the CSI 300 Index over the last 5 months while the forecast deletes have underperformed the index.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 12 Changes a Side as Trade Nears US$10bn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Trading in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)</a> spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a>'s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> outperforms.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK)</a> bubble has finally popped. Now what?</li>
</ul>


Trading in Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.

Naspers (NPN SJ)'s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms.
The Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) bubble has finally popped. Now what?


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

<ul>
<li>I tally 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paramount-bed-holdings-co-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17808:1" rel="noopener">Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">Oneconnect (6638 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-kangji-medical-instrument-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28938:1" rel="noopener">Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soft99-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18486:1" rel="noopener">Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP).
Key updates/news took place on PointsBet (PBH AU), Oneconnect (6638 HK), Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), and Mandom Corp (4917 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Jinke Smart Services, Soft99, Mandom, Paramount Bed

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a> (CJ) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I expected SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-changhong-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17702:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Changhong (600839 CH)</a> (60.13%) to make an Offer. And that is what unfolded. </li>
<li>Sichuan Changhong plus provincial bodies, have made a pre-conditional Offer by  way of a Scheme, at HK$1.223/share, a 32.93% premium to last close. The Offer Price is final.</li>
<li>Pre-Cons include the local SASAC &amp;  Reform Commission Commerce, plus SAFE.  The risk to the deal will be one of timing. The Offer Price is fair.</li>
</ul>


After Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK) (CJ) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I expected SOE-backed Sichuan Changhong (600839 CH) (60.13%) to make an Offer. And that is what unfolded. 
Sichuan Changhong plus provincial bodies, have made a pre-conditional Offer by  way of a Scheme, at HK$1.223/share, a 32.93% premium to last close. The Offer Price is final.
Pre-Cons include the local SASAC &amp;  Reform Commission Commerce, plus SAFE.  The risk to the deal will be one of timing. The Offer Price is fair.


Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK): Sichuan Changhong's Pre-Con Scheme

China

Sichuan Changhong Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of household electrical appliances.  The Company's products include TV sets, air conditioners, digital video disc (DVD) players, batteries, and other related products.

Sichuan Changhong Electric Co, Ltd. (600839 CH)

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Sichuan Changhong Electric Co, Ltd. (600839 CH)

Potential Change of Chinese Visa Policy to Korea

Korea has two visa policies for Chinese visitors to Korea – one for mainland Korea and one for Jeju island. Chinese visitors must get visa when...

Douglas Kim

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 12 Changes a Side as Trade Nears US$10bn

There could be 12 changes in Dec. Estimate one-way turnover is 2.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$9.8bn. The adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Jinke Smart Services, Soft99, Mandom, Paramount Bed

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK): Sichuan Changhong's Pre-Con Scheme

I anticipated a ~30%+ premium to undisturbed, or ~$1.20/share+, and that is what transpired. Clean deal. If a six month off-ramp (including four...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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