Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

My updates back in December to reiterate the negative in containers (and bulk) and anticipated a weak 2016, to be sure. But in recent weeks it appears the market has gotten even weaker. I am sure our friends from Drewry have experienced this as well. A few key details below on rates that have gone even further south than 2009.In recent weeks we understand from friends that some markets in Intra-Asia have gone into negative pricing.This means that lines have to try to recoup some of their losses…

My updates back in December to reiterate the negative in containers (and bulk) and anticipated a weak 2016, to be sure. But in recent weeks it appears the market has gotten even weaker. I am sure our friends from Drewry have experienced this as well. A few key details below on rates that have gone even further south than 2009.In recent weeks we understand from friends that some markets in Intra-Asia have gone into negative pricing.This means that lines have to try to recoup some of their losses…

Container Shipping Industry Last Few Weeks Factoring in Doomsday

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

Macroeconomics

We're awash in concerns over inflation - the Economist last week, and multiple speakers at the 2nd Independent Research Conference where we moderated a panel on asset allocation. Ignore them.  Our analysis suggests a low near term probability of sustained inflationary concerns in core markets. However, if you disagree, steer clear of linkers and commodity futures as your inflation hedge. You'll likely lose money. We recommend equities for this role, which are currently pricing in cyclical inflation lows.  In EM, we see the trend moving in the opposite direction, as inflationary pressures top out on the back of recovery in real exchange rates.  Longer term, the outlook for inflation in core economies will move up as policy makers are forced to ease more aggressively to drive it into a 2-4% range.  Not necessarily a bad thing for risk assets.

We're awash in concerns over inflation - the Economist last week, and multiple speakers at the 2nd Independent Research Conference where we moderated a panel on asset allocation. Ignore them.  Our analysis suggests a low near term probability of sustained inflationary concerns in core markets. However, if you disagree, steer clear of linkers and commodity futures as your inflation hedge. You'll likely lose money. We recommend equities for this role, which are currently pricing in cyclical inflation lows.  In EM, we see the trend moving in the opposite direction, as inflationary pressures top out on the back of recovery in real exchange rates.  Longer term, the outlook for inflation in core economies will move up as policy makers are forced to ease more aggressively to drive it into a 2-4% range.  Not necessarily a bad thing for risk assets.

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains precarious. We expect this to continue in 2016 where imbalances at the trade route level and insufficient measures to reduce ship capacity will further accelerate freight rate reductions and industry losses. We expect 2016 to be dominated by continued weak global trade growth, sustained erosion in freight rates and weakened balance sheets – each unfavourable to a major recovery in share prices, in our view”

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains precarious. We expect this to continue in 2016 where imbalances at the trade route level and insufficient measures to reduce ship capacity will further accelerate freight rate reductions and industry losses. We expect 2016 to be dominated by continued weak global trade growth, sustained erosion in freight rates and weakened balance sheets – each unfavourable to a major recovery in share prices, in our view”

Container Shipping 2016 – Operators Facing Prisoner's Dilemma; Industry Could Lose USD 5bn in 2016

Germany

Siemens AG is an engineering and manufacturing company. The Company focuses on areas of electrification, automation, and digitalization. Siemens also provides engineering solutions in automation and control, power, transportation, and medical diagnosis.

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Siemens (SIE GR)

Container Shipping Industry Last Few Weeks Factoring in Doomsday

My updates back in December to reiterate the negative in containers (and bulk) and anticipated a weak 2016, to be sure. But in recent weeks it...

Charles De Trenck

Inflation - Really?

We're awash in concerns over inflation - the Economist last week, and multiple speakers at the 2nd Independent Research Conference where...

ClearMacro

Container Shipping 2016 – Operators Facing Prisoner's Dilemma; Industry Could Lose USD 5bn in 2016

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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