Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> sees its AGM next week with new directors and a possible privatisation process ongoing. But the AGM is a done deal and privatisation is not.</li>
<li>The event-i-ness of Toshiba keeps it "supported" while its better-valued and higher-growth peers fall harder in the face of recent overall market weakness. </li>
<li>Toshiba promised transparency on its privatisation process, and so far, it has delivered everything it promised. The next "transparency" likely comes in November. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) sees its AGM next week with new directors and a possible privatisation process ongoing. But the AGM is a done deal and privatisation is not.
The event-i-ness of Toshiba keeps it "supported" while its better-valued and higher-growth peers fall harder in the face of recent overall market weakness. 
Toshiba promised transparency on its privatisation process, and so far, it has delivered everything it promised. The next "transparency" likely comes in November. 


Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Germany, the EU's most consequential power, now has a "traffic-lights" coalition government with an ambitious agenda for its structural transformation into a green, digitized economy. </li>
<li>Socially-Liberal policies, including expunging 'race" from the constitution, will allow greater entry of technology professionals, and relatively smooth path toward citizenship, which should attract considerable talent. </li>
<li>With the debt brake absent in 2022, the state railway and development bank will borrow big to fund the investment surge, lowering Germany's current account surplus and boosting Eurozone growth. </li>
</ul>


Germany, the EU's most consequential power, now has a "traffic-lights" coalition government with an ambitious agenda for its structural transformation into a green, digitized economy. 
Socially-Liberal policies, including expunging 'race" from the constitution, will allow greater entry of technology professionals, and relatively smooth path toward citizenship, which should attract considerable talent. 
With the debt brake absent in 2022, the state railway and development bank will borrow big to fund the investment surge, lowering Germany's current account surplus and boosting Eurozone growth. 


Germany: Scholz-Led Traffic-Light Coalition to Redefine Left-Wing Pragmatism

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group / Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (MM), a surgical robot company, aims to raise up to US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO.MicroPort MedBot (MM) is a surgical robot company which designs, develops and commercializes surgical robots to assist surgeons in performing complex surgical procedures. It is the only company with a product portfolio covering the five major and fast-growing surgical specialties of laparoscopic, orthopedic, panvascular, natural orifice and percutaneous surgical procedures, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).We have looked at the company’s background and products in our earlier notes:<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/microport-medbot-pre-ipo-robodoc-pre-revenue-has-a-large-competitor-but-a-large-market-as-well" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - RoboDoc - pre-revenue, has a large competitor but a large market as well</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/microport-medbot-pre-ipo-robodoc-phip-updates-and-a-look-at-its-largest-competitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - RoboDoc - PHIP Updates and a Look at Its Largest Competitor, and</a></li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/microport-medbot-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - Thoughts on valuation</a></li>
</ul>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on valuations.

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (MM), a surgical robot company, aims to raise up to US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO.MicroPort MedBot (MM) is a surgical robot company which designs, develops and commercializes surgical robots to assist surgeons in performing complex surgical procedures. It is the only company with a product portfolio covering the five major and fast-growing surgical specialties of laparoscopic, orthopedic, panvascular, natural orifice and percutaneous surgical procedures, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).We have looked at the company’s background and products in our earlier notes:
MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - RoboDoc - pre-revenue, has a large competitor but a large market as well
MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - RoboDoc - PHIP Updates and a Look at Its Largest Competitor, and
MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - Thoughts on valuation
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on valuations.

MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - Valuation Appears Reasonable but Sentiment Will Weigh

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Among active Global investors, EMEA Industrials are the 6th largest regional sector allocation and the largest in the EMEA region, with a 4.80% holding weight on average.  This allocation places EMEA Industrials as the largest regional sector overweight at +2.05% above benchmark (vs MSCI ACWI) with 72.9% of funds holding more than the benchmark weight.Over the last 6-months, cash flows have been among the highest across all Regional Sector groups, with $1bn in net inflows, more buyers than sellers and a marginal uptick in absolute and relative weights.Over the last 6-months, German Industrials stand out as the key recipient of increased levels of positioning, with 4.2% of funds moving to overweight and 3.4% of funds buying in to the sector.Ownership in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> more than doubled from 9.2% in July 2020 to 20.8% today, with every month in between seeing new funds enter the name.  Key holders are RBC, Artemis and Nuveen, all of whom hold north of a 3% allocation.  Over the last 6-months, no closures were registered and instead 2.9% of funds opened positions, led by Cambriar's Global Equity Fund (1.88%) and John Hancock's Global Equity Fund (1.81%).The analysis looks at the positioning of 380 active Global investors with combined AUM of $1.1tr.

Among active Global investors, EMEA Industrials are the 6th largest regional sector allocation and the largest in the EMEA region, with a 4.80% holding weight on average.  This allocation places EMEA Industrials as the largest regional sector overweight at +2.05% above benchmark (vs MSCI ACWI) with 72.9% of funds holding more than the benchmark weight.Over the last 6-months, cash flows have been among the highest across all Regional Sector groups, with $1bn in net inflows, more buyers than sellers and a marginal uptick in absolute and relative weights.Over the last 6-months, German Industrials stand out as the key recipient of increased levels of positioning, with 4.2% of funds moving to overweight and 3.4% of funds buying in to the sector.Ownership in Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) more than doubled from 9.2% in July 2020 to 20.8% today, with every month in between seeing new funds enter the name.  Key holders are RBC, Artemis and Nuveen, all of whom hold north of a 3% allocation.  Over the last 6-months, no closures were registered and instead 2.9% of funds opened positions, led by Cambriar's Global Equity Fund (1.88%) and John Hancock's Global Equity Fund (1.81%).The analysis looks at the positioning of 380 active Global investors with combined AUM of $1.1tr.

EMEA Industrials: Global Consensus Overweight

Cross Asset Strategy

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

Germany

Siemens AG is an engineering and manufacturing company. The Company focuses on areas of electrification, automation, and digitalization. Siemens also provides engineering solutions in automation and control, power, transportation, and medical diagnosis.

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Siemens (SIE GR)

Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance

Weak earnings/forecasts and 3yr highs vs Peers make Toshiba's relative valuation un-compelling. Lack of near-term news means on a risk-on rebound,...

Travis Lundy

Germany: Scholz-Led Traffic-Light Coalition to Redefine Left-Wing Pragmatism

The new coalition will borrow in 2022, & invest in a green, digital transformation over the next 5 years. Germany's large current account surplus...

Prasenjit K. Basu

MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - Valuation Appears Reasonable but Sentiment Will Weigh

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (MM), a surgical robot company, aims to raise up to US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO. Valuation appears reasonable but...

Sumeet Singh

EMEA Industrials: Global Consensus Overweight

Over the last 6-months, cash flows into EMEA Industrials have been among the highest across all sectors, with inflows of $1bn, more buyers than...

Steven Holden

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

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